Rankings Grid & electrical equipment Alfen

Alfen

Grid & electrical equipment · NetherlandsRank 429 of 829Prices 3 Nov 2026Model 1.4

15070100

A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.

Biggest deductions

Margin−8
Multiples vs own history−5
Future segment−4

Strengths

Net cash+1
Multi-year framework agreements+1

How the score is built

From 100 to 59, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.

100Start

59Score

Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.

Key numbers

As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.

Price: 10.40 EUR
Median analyst target: 11.00 EUR
Upside to median: +5.8%
Analysts: 9
Target range: 8.00 – 14.00 EUR
52-week change: +8%
P/E (trailing): 350.5
Forward P/E: 43.9
PEG: 1.23

Findings

Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.

Business

Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−17 of −30

Margin
Operating margin only 1.7% and net margin 0.1% (TTM) vs 15.6% and 12.1% in 2022; net result was still negative in H1 2026 (−EUR 0.5m), and guidance for adjusted EBITDA margin is only 4–7% for 2026.
stockanalysis.com
−8
Future segment
EV Charging - the former growth segment and the business with the highest gross margin (39.5%) - fell 17.4% in H1 2026 to EUR 51.1m due to competitive pressure and uneven orders in the public segment; revenue has more than halved from EUR 251.8m in 2022.
alfen.com
−4
Moat
The gross margin has fallen from 36.0% (2021) to 26.1% in H1 2026 (29.1% a year earlier); growth comes from energy storage and substations with only about 23% gross margin, which suggests weak pricing power.
stockanalysis.com
−3
Quality of growth
H1 growth of 23.6% is front-loaded: guidance of EUR 435–475m for 2026 means EUR 174–214m in H2 versus EUR 224m in H2 2025, i.e. a decline of 5–23%. 2026 revenue is thus at or below the 2023 level (EUR 504m).
alfen.com
−2

Price

Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−7 of −35

Multiples vs own history
Trailing P/E 393 and forward P/E 48.6 vs 29–44 forward in 2022–2024; EV/EBIT 31.6 and EV/EBITDA 9.6 for a company with a 4–7% EBITDA margin. Only P/S 0.53 is low (2.6–7.7 in 2021–2023), but it reflects the collapsed margin.
stockanalysis.com
−5
FCF quality
FCF yield 21% TTM is driven by released working capital (inventory), while analysts expect negative FCF of EUR -6.1m in 2026; the normalized cash flow does not support the price.
stockanalysis.com
−2

Cracks

Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−8 of −35

Order book in energy storage
Energy Storage Systems (38% of H1 revenue) had 'slow development in the order book' in Q2: only EUR 37m left for 2026 and EUR 56m for 2027 vs EUR 98.8m in revenue in H1 2026 alone - a clear drop in H2.
alfen.com
−4
Customer concentration
Smart Grid (43% of revenue) depends on a few Dutch grid operators: 1,199 of 1,716 substations delivered in H1 went to the Netherlands, mainly via framework agreements with Liander, Enexis and Stedin; a change in purchasing at one of them hits revenue hard.
alfen.com
−2
Execution and costs
Transformation programme with EUR 3.5m in restructuring costs in H1, new top management (CEO change in 2025) and personnel costs up 13.5% (incl. approx. 5% wage indexation), while headcount only fell from 923 to 909.
alfen.com
−2

Plus

Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+2 of +15

Net cash
Net cash of EUR 6.2m vs net debt of EUR 20.7m a year earlier; operating cash flow rose to EUR 36.5m in H1 from EUR 10.8m.
alfen.com
+1
Multi-year framework agreements
Alfen is the main supplier of substations to Liander (the Netherlands' largest grid operator) under a 4+4-year framework agreement and has similar 4+4-year agreements with Enexis and Stedin, which gives visibility in Smart Grid.
alfen.com
+1

Caveats

What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.

Market cap about EUR 259m (about DKK 1.9bn) at price EUR 11.93 (2 Oct.). FCF TTM (EUR 53.8m, FCF yield 21%) is driven by a one-off release of working capital (inventory reduction of EUR 23m in H1), and analysts expect negative FCF in 2026, so the FCF yield is not a given plus. Forward P/E is calculated on adjusted EPS. Customer shares for the Dutch grid operators are not stated and are estimated from delivery figures. Warranty and quality issues (including earlier problems with charging posts) and insider trades have not been investigated.