Prysmian

Organic growth only 7.2% in H1 2026 (9.4% in Q2), and growth is increasingly price rather than volume: Digital Solutions reprices weekly, while Specialties fell 2.4% (elevators, oil and gas, autos). Revenue has grown from EUR 12.8bn to 21.7bn since 2021, but much of it is bought (Encore Wire for EUR 4.1bn in 2024) or metal prices passed through.

Atkore is being bought for USD 3.8bn (9.8x 2025 EV/EBITDA, 23% premium) with about 60% debt, 20% hybrid bonds and 20% equity. Atkore's EBITDA margin is now only about 13% (USD 104.7m on 794.8m in Q3), and net profit in the quarter was USD 0.7m. Only 7.1x including USD 150m of synergies, of which about 100m are commercial (uncertain) synergies.

Net profit for 2025 and TTM includes a one-off gain on asset sales of EUR 390m (about a quarter of pre-tax profit), so the trailing P/E of 26 is flattered; without the gain it is over 30.

Forward P/E 22.6 vs 14.8–20.7 in 2021–25 (above the top of the range); EV/EBITDA 14.4 at the top of 10.1–14.6; P/FCF 29.6 vs 13.7–17.6. The share price is up 50% in a year.

Nexans trades at a forward P/E of 16.5 and EV/EBITDA of 8.6, NKT at EV/EBITDA of 8.2; Prysmian costs 14.4x EBITDA – a clear premium, even with a higher margin.

FCF yield 3.4% and earnings yield 3.8% vs an FCF yield of 5.7–7.3% in 2021–25; dividend yield 0.7%.

Net debt EUR 4.08bn before Atkore; pro forma net debt/EBITDA 1.4x at the end of 2026 and only about 1x in 2027. 20% of the funding is hybrid debt, and the Altman Z-score is 2.6.

LTM FCF was EUR 978m as of June (company figure), and operating cash flow fell 11% (TTM) because of an inventory build of EUR 519m. The raised FCF guidance of EUR 1,650–1,750m partly relies on a EUR 350m prepayment from Molex, not just operations.

A 10-year agreement with Molex (Koch) worth up to EUR 5.5bn and up to EUR 1.1bn a year in 2031 requires investments of EUR 1.25bn up to 2031; data centres are expected to be about 90% of Digital Solutions in 2031. One customer and one theme carry a large part of the growth story.

High copper prices caused a EUR 250m working-capital headwind in Q2, and Power Grid has temporary margin pressure because price increases are only passed on with a delay.

Three big projects at once: integrating Atkore (synergies within three years), building capacity for Molex and a North American fibre expansion (USD 80m in Lexington). That raises the risk of delays and overruns.

Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 raised to EUR 2.80–2.90bn (from 2.625–2.775) after a record quarter of EUR 730m and a 13.4% margin.

Transmission order book of about EUR 17bn (about five years of segment revenue) with a 21.2% EBITDA margin in Q2.

Management sees no price pressure in the market, and US tariffs make imported aluminium cables uncompetitive, which strengthens local producers such as Prysmian.

General Cable and Encore Wire are integrated with a rising margin (operating margin 4.3% in 2021 → 9.6% TTM).