Rankings Grid & electrical equipment ESS Tech
ESS Tech
22
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−14
- Margin−12
- Going concern and cash−10
Strengths
- No documented strengths.
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 1
- Price
- 1.12 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 44m
- Cash runway
- 1 months
- Cash / debt
- 8.1 / 17.5m USD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +102%
Bull case
The Alsym agreement becomes binding, and a hyperscaler orders Bridge systems for USD 20–50m, triggering a larger strategic capital injection. Even then, new capital will come at a low price; a 3–5x from a USD 7m market cap requires both orders and rescuing the listing within a few weeks.
Bear case
Delisting from NYSE in October-November 2026, cash runs out, and the company ends in bankruptcy or an emergency issue with massive dilution. For a Nordnet investor, an OTC delisting effectively means losing the ability to trade.
Catalysts
- 2026-10 (approx. 8/10)Deadline to request the NYSE board committee's review of the delisting; otherwise a suspension date is setbinary financialcontent.com
- 16 Oct 2026Extraordinary general meeting: reverse split 1:8–1:30 and approval of 13.1m warrant sharesbinary stocktitan.net
- 2026-11-12 (approx.)Q3 2026 results: cash, first Bridge orders and any binding Alsym agreementgradual stockanalysis.com
Risk of going to zerohigh – going concern, about 1–2 months of cash, NYSE delisting proceedings under way, negative equity and no revenue.
Next financingAcute. Cash was about USD 5.6m at 31/7-2026, and the issue on 21/8 gave about 2.5m net; with spending of 4–5m a month, the money lasts only to about October–November 2026 despite savings. A new issue, Yorkville financing or a partnership with Alsym is necessary within weeks. Debt (17.5m) is primarily lease liabilities.
Warrants & convertibles12,800,000 investor warrants and 320,000 Roth warrants, strike USD 0.50, expiry 21/8-2031, exercisable only after general meeting approval (16/10-2026), cashless exercise allowed. Public SPAC warrants (GWH.W) suspended 30/6-2026. Note to YA II PN, Ltd. (Yorkville) – approx. USD 0.5m to be repaid from warrant proceeds.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNot examined in detail; no insider purchases found in the sources read. Insiders own only c. 0.65%.
Largest ownersInstitutions approx. 17.6%, insiders approx. 0.65% according to stockanalysis; names not verified.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. USD 7m. (2) Hot theme: yes – energy storage for data centers and sodium-ion. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – general meeting and NYSE review, but these are survival events, not data. (4) Major partner: no – only a letter of intent with Alsym (start-up); no named customers. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – runway of 1–2 months. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −90% in a year and −99.9% since 2021 adjusted for splits.
Why this asymmetryThe theme is hot, but the company has no revenue, almost no cash and an ongoing delisting case that a reverse split does not solve. The probability of zero or OTC is far greater than of a breakthrough, and all upside is diluted by necessary issues.
How the score is built
From 100 to 22, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 1 Oct 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.16 USD
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −90%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−30 of −30
- −12MarginGross profit is −USD 24.8m and operating result −50.6m TTM on negative revenue (−1.17m after reversals); net loss USD 65.8m and accumulated deficit USD 877m.
- −8Quality of growthRevenue fell 97% to USD 73,000 in Q2 2026 (6.3m in 2024, 1.6m in 2025). The iron-flow battery did not break through commercially, and the company is now switching to the sodium-ion system Bridge without binding orders.
- −5MoatThe sodium-ion cells come from the partner Alsym Energy via a letter of intent, so ESS' own technology (iron flow) is deprioritised. System integration of others' cells gives no moat against large BESS suppliers.
- −5Capital allocationThe share count has risen 102% over a year (to 40.3m after the 1:15 reverse split in 2024), and over USD 870m in paid-in capital has been burned. The latest issue (21/8-2026) was at USD 0.50 with 2 warrants per share.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−14 of −35
- −14Multiples vs own historyMarket cap USD 6.7m and EV 13.3m for a company with negative equity (-2.7m) and no real revenue; P/B was 2.4-4.3 in 2024-2025. Forward P/S 1.37 builds on an impossible revenue estimate. The price is an option on survival, not cheap.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−28 of −35
- −10Going concern and cashKPMG and management state material doubt about going concern. Cash fell from USD 22.0m at the end of 2025 to 10.8m at 30/6 and about 5.6m at 31/7-2026; the August issue only gave about 2.5m net.
- −9Listing riskNYSE initiated delisting proceedings 24/9-2026 because the company has not regained the requirement of USD 50m in equity or market cap; a reverse split does not fix that requirement. Warrants (GWH.W) were suspended as early as 30/6-2026. Delisting to OTC means the stock cannot be traded on Nordnet.
- −6Dilution12.8m investor warrants and 0.32m placement agent warrants at USD 0.50 (expiring 2031, cashless exercise allowed) equal to 33% of the shares, plus a note to YA II PN (Yorkville). With only a few months of cash, new issues at an even lower price are likely.
- −3Non-binding pipeline and partner dependenceThe pipeline of almost 1bn USD is 'preliminary discussions and expressions of interest', and the entire strategy rests on a letter of intent with Alsym for 8.5 GWh of cells – no binding orders or supply agreement.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 0 findings±0 of +15
- No findings recorded.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3 – USA). Battery storage (iron flow) being converted to sodium-ion systems (Bridge) based on cells from Alsym Energy. Placed in 'Grid & electrical equipment' as the closest category (energy storage for grid and data centres); not cyclical. Figures from the Q2 2026 report, 8-Ks (23/6 and 24/9-2026), S-3 (8/9-2026) and stockanalysis. TTM revenue is negative (−USD 1.17m) due to reversals, so P/S and margins are meaningless. Cash at 31/7-2026 (USD 5.6m) plus net proceeds from the 21/8 issue (about 2.5m) is used as cash; quarterly burn (12m) is based on the cash decline in Q2 and July. No stockanalysis analyst page (forecast 404). Insider trades, the terms of the YA II PN note and whether the company has appealed the NYSE decision are not confirmed.
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