Rankings Autos & parts Ferrari
Ferrari
77
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−6
- FCF yield−3
- Quality and pace of growth−2
Strengths
- Raised guidance+2
- Pricing power and order book+2
- Buybacks+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 77, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 356.65 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 392.50 EUR
- Upside to median
- +10.1%
- Analysts
- 18
- Target range
- 330.00 – 430.40 EUR
- 52-week change
- +2%
- P/E (trailing)
- 38.6
- Forward P/E
- 34.4
- PEG
- 3.68
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−3 of −30
- −2Quality and pace of growthRevenue growth has slowed from 17–23% in 2021–23 to 7% in 2025 and 5.7% TTM; deliveries fell 3.7% in Q2 2026 to 3,366 cars, so growth comes entirely from price, mix and personalisation. The 2030 plan from October 2025 implies only about 5% annual revenue growth and about 6% EPS growth.
- −1Future segment (EV)The 2030 EV target has been halved to 20% of production (from 40%), and the stock fell 8.4% on the day the first EV, the Luce, was unveiled in May 2026; the first 500 orders did arrive within two months, mainly from China.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−9 of −35
- −6Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 33.3 vs 33.7–47.9 in 2021–25 (median 41.6) and EV/EBITDA 27.5 vs 24.1–34.5 (median 29.6) – at the bottom of its own history, but still a luxury multiple for EPS growth of about 10% in 2026 and about 6% annually in the 2030 plan; P/B 18.3. Car peers trade at forward P/E 4–8.
- −3FCF yieldFCF yield 2.85% TTM (€1.91bn) and about 2.3% on guidance for industrial FCF of at least €1.55bn vs a market cap of €67bn.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−4 of −35
- −2Americas, tariffs and currencyDeliveries to the Americas fell year over year in Q2 (explained by model changes and longer personalisation time), and only about 8% of H2 currency exposure is hedged; US tariffs and logistics problems in the Gulf are cited by analysts as risks.
- −1Sponsorship and F1 revenueCommercial revenue fell in Q2 due to the lower F1 placing the year before; the segment (sponsorship, commercial and brand, EUR 851m TTM) depends on sporting results.
- −1Expectation riskThe share fell by as much as 16% – the largest drop in nine years – after the capital markets day in October 2025 and 8.4% after the Luce launch; with a high multiple, the price reacts sharply to even small disappointments.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +2Raised guidance2026 guidance raised after Q2: revenue about €7.60bn (from €7.50bn), adjusted EBITDA at least €2.97bn (from €2.93bn) with a margin of at least 39%, diluted EPS ≥€9.68 and industrial FCF ≥€1.55bn.
- +2Pricing power and order bookEBIT rose 10% to €605m (margin 31.2%) in Q2 despite 3.7% fewer cars delivered; the order book covers all of 2027, and the 296 Speciale and 12Cilindri are sold out for the entire production period. ROIC 31.5% and operating margin 29.4% TTM.
- +1BuybacksBuyback programme of about €3.5bn for 2026–2030; dividend (about €0.65bn) and buybacks (about €0.7bn a year) are below FCF of €1.9bn TTM, and the share count falls about 1% a year.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The Milan listing (RACE). Cyclical = no, unlike BMW/Mercedes/Stellantis: Ferrari's earnings have risen every year 2021–26, whereas BMW's EPS has more than halved, the order book covers all of 2027, and several models are sold out for the entire production period – demand does not follow the car cycle (although revenue fell about 10% in the covid year 2020). Stockanalysis' net debt of €1.7bn includes customer financing; industrial net debt was only €131m at 30/6 – not given a plus, as it is not net cash. Forward P/E is based on adjusted EPS; guidance for diluted EPS is ≥€9.68. Exor (about 24% of shares) and Piero Ferrari have enhanced voting rights via loyalty shares – mentioned, not scored. F1 results and regional distribution of deliveries have not been examined in detail. Q3 is due 3/11.
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