Rankings Autos & parts Kongsberg Automotive
Kongsberg Automotive
56
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−6
- Quality of growth−6
- Moat and segment−5
Strengths
- Debt reduction+2
- New contracts+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 1.38 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 1,279m
- Cash runway
- 20 months
- Cash / debt
- 1,022.0 / 2,220.0m NOK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +0%
Bull case
Revenue is heading back towards EUR 780–800m, and the margin holds at 6.5% (EBIT approx. EUR 51m, net result approx. EUR 35m ≈ NOK 400m). At a P/E of 10 that is approx. NOK 4bn = approx. 2x. A 3x requires revenue back at EUR 900m (2022 level) and a 7% margin.
Bear case
A truck downturn, tariffs or new warranty cases send the margin back to 1–2% as in 2022–2025; then the stock is not cheap, and the price could fall 40–50% toward NOK 1.0–1.2. Zero is unlikely with gearing of 1.6x.
Catalysts
- 22 Oct 2026Q3 2026 report: does the EBIT margin hold around 6% without one-off effects from warranties?gradual stockanalysis.com
- Jun 2028EUR 110m bond matures - possible early refinancing at a lower rate; target of 6.5% EBIT margingradual kongsbergautomotive.com
- no dateRuling on guarantee cases and insurance casebinary investing.com
Risk of going to zerolow - positive FCF, equity ratio 33%, covenant gearing 1.6x vs 4.0x and no maturity before June 2028.
Next financingThe company is cash flow positive (FCF about EUR 37m TTM), so there is no acute need for capital. Quarterly burn = cash interest (EUR 14.7m a year). 'Runway' = time to the next large maturity: the EUR 110m bond in June 2028 (about 20 months); with covenant gearing of 1.6x a refinancing, possibly at a lower margin, is likely.
Warrants & convertiblesNo convertibles found. The share count fell 0.6% in 2025 (buybacks); 18.2m treasury shares. Secured bond EUR 110m (EURIBOR + 5.25%, maturing June 2028) with no conversion right.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNone found within 12 months. CEO Trond Fiskum bought 500,000 shares at NOK 1.522 (c. NOK 0.76m) 15/5-2025. Teleios sold its entire 20.4% stake in September 2024.
Largest ownersApollo Asset Limited about 115m shares (about 12.3%), treasury shares 18.2m (2.0%), Arild Vigen Christoffersen 14.3m (1.5%). Insiders 5.8%, institutions 18%.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – DKK 1.3bn. (2) Hot theme: no – traditional car parts. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – quarterly reports and warranty cases, gradual. (4) Major partner: no. (5) Funding for 2+ years: partial – cash flow positive, but the bond matures in approx. 20 months. (6) Price near the bottom: no – +24% in a year and near the 52-week high.
Why this asymmetryLow zero-risk and cheap at EV/EBITDA 4.8, but the upside is a 'value' re-rating of at most about 2x, not a Circio rocket. Only one analyst and DKK 0.9m in daily turnover.
How the score is built
From 100 to 56, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 2.01 NOK
- Median analyst target
- 2.37 NOK
- Upside to median
- +17.9%
- Analysts
- 2
- Target range
- 2.24 – 2.49 NOK
- 52-week change
- +17%
- P/E (trailing)
- 7.9
- Forward P/E
- 8.8
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−24 of −30
- −6MarginEBIT margin 4.1% TTM and only 0.7–2.2% in 2022–2025; net margin 2.1%. Q2 2026 reached 6.2%, but that is one quarter and driven by EUR 9.6m lower warranty costs.
- −6Quality of growthRevenue has fallen from EUR 906m (2022) to 704m TTM (-22%); -9.6% in 2025 and -5.8% TTM. The profit lift comes from cost cuts, not volume.
- −3
- −4Capital allocationAccumulated deficit of EUR 157m in retained earnings, dilution of about 90% in 2021 and a price that has fallen from about NOK 3 (2021) to 2; buybacks 2022–2024 could not offset it.
- −5Moat and segmentSubcontractor of gear-shift, steering and fluid couplings for truck and car OEMs with limited pricing power; new contracts require negotiated indexation and warranty terms.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−3 of −35
- −1Multiples vs own historyEV/EBITDA 4.8 vs 6.9-9.4 in 2021-2025, P/E 6.3 and P/B 0.84 (0.75-1.20). Cheap, but forward P/E 9.3 shows that the analyst expects lower earnings than TTM.
- −2PeersEV/EBITDA under 5 is typical for small European auto parts suppliers with low margins; the discount is not unusual in the sector.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−14 of −35
- −5Warranty casesUnresolved guarantee cases are described as 'complex' with no time horizon, and the company has started legal proceedings to obtain cover from the insurance; guarantee costs swung by EUR 9.6m in one quarter.
- −4Macro and customersDependent on truck and car production in Europe, the US and China; management cites geopolitical and trade uncertainty (tariffs). The stock broke down through a rising trend channel in September.
- −3DebtSecured bond of EUR 110m at 3M EURIBOR + 5.25% falls due in June 2028; net debt incl. leasing about EUR 106m. Covenant gearing 1.6x vs a limit of 4.0x.
- −2RestructuringChina consolidated from three factories to one, and the factory in Cluses (France) is in statutory restructuring; execution risk and one-off costs (EUR 1.8m in Q2).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Debt reductionCovenant leverage fell from 3.1x to 1.6x in a year, and net debt fell EUR 23.2m since Q1 2025; FCF EUR 37m TTM (FCF yield about 22%).
- +1New contractsContracts worth EUR 135m in Q2 2026 on better terms (price, indexation and guarantee).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3), operational turnaround (not a debt crisis). The company reports in EUR; penny amounts are converted to NOK at about NOK 11.3/EUR (stockanalysis' own conversion). Only one analyst (price target NOK 2.20). Earnings follow truck and car production, but cyclical is set to false under the addendum's definition (price/commodity cycle). Stockanalysis shows an erroneous 'filing date' share count of 520m; the correct figure is 933.2m (incl. 18.2m treasury shares). The extent of the unresolved warranty cases is not disclosed. The last insider purchase (CEO, May 2025) falls just outside 12 months.
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