Rankings Grid & electrical equipment Forgent
Forgent
68
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs peers−6
- Absolute price level−6
- Insider selling and control (private equity)−6
Strengths
- Above guidance and raised level+3
- Order book+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 68, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 24.56 USD
- Median analyst target
- 52.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +111.7%
- Analysts
- 12
- Target range
- 36.00 – 76.00 USD
- 52-week change
- –
- P/E (trailing)
- 82.0
- Forward P/E
- 18.2
- PEG
- 0.27
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−10 of −30
- −2MarginGAAP operating margin 12.8% and net margin to shareholders of only 5.1% (fiscal 2026) due to interest and amortisation of acquired intangibles; adjusted EBITDA margin 24.4% in Q4. Gross margin has fallen from 37.3% (2024) to 35.0%.
- −4Growth quality (FCF)Despite +89% revenue, free cash flow was negative (-USD 6.8m) in fiscal 2026 and -USD 39m the year before: receivables rose USD 173m and inventory USD 143m. Growth ties up capital, and earnings have not yet turned into cash.
- −2Capital allocationThe company's share of the proceeds from the IPO and follow-on offerings has been used to redeem the private equity fund Neos's stake in the operating company - not to strengthen the business. Tangible equity is negative (-USD 242m) after the 2024 acquisition for USD 742m.
- −2MoatCustom-built switchgear and distribution equipment for data centres and power grids is a market where Eaton, Schneider, Siemens, ABB and Vertiv are all expanding capacity; Forgent's advantage is mainly lead time and capacity in a shortage.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−12 of −35
- −6Multiples vs peersForward P/E 29.6 on FY27 EPS (USD 1.35) – on par with Vertiv (30.9) – but EV/EBITDA 51 trailing and about 21 on the guided FY27 EBITDA (USD 575–625m), P/S 8.6 and P/B 18.4 with negative tangible equity. No own history to compare with.
- −6Absolute price levelTrailing P/E of 134, earnings yield of 0.6% and negative FCF yield; the market value of USD 12.2bn is 8.6 times last year's revenue, and the price assumes the FY27 guidance of +76% revenue holds.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−15 of −35
- −6Insider selling and control (private equity)Private equity firm Neos has sold in the IPO and in three follow-on offerings in March, May and July 2026 (including 29.1m shares at 49 USD in July) and still owns the majority, so the company is controlled and there is a continuing selling overhang. The price is now approx. 40 USD, 18% below the July offering.
- −3Order quality (pull-forward)Lead times have gone from 9-12 to 12-15 months as customers lock in capacity early; order growth (+375% in Q4, book-to-bill 3.3) is led by data centre and power grid customers. This increases the risk of pulled-forward or duplicate orders that disappear if the AI build-out slows.
- −2DebtNet debt of USD 606m against only 97m in cash; interest coverage 3.2 times and debt/EBITDA 2.6 (GAAP).
- −2Execution and capacityThe company itself warns about commodity and wage costs, the supply chain, price pressure and the timing of capacity expansions, which must carry revenue growth of 76% in FY27.
- −2Sentiment and short interestShort interest rose from 9.5m to 14.2m shares (8.3% of the free float) in a month, and the stock is still traded as a new AI name with no track record.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +3Above guidance and raised levelQ4 revenue of USD 462m (+94%) and adjusted EBITDA of 113m were above the top of May guidance; FY27 guidance of USD 2.4-2.6bn revenue and 575-625m adjusted EBITDA is, according to the company, clearly above the IPO forecast.
- +2Order bookOrder book of USD 3.0bn (+256% in a year, about 2.1 times annual revenue) with order intake of USD 1.5bn in Q4.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Newly listed (IPO February 2026, fiscal year to 30 Jun): no own multiple history, so T2 is assessed against peers (Vertiv, Eaton) and absolute level. Up-C structure with minority interests; 'other long-term liabilities' of USD 339m and deferred tax assets of 281m look like a tax receivable agreement (TRA) with Neos, but this is not confirmed. The share of revenue from data centres and customer concentration were not found (0 points) - the score is therefore an upper limit. Lock-up expiry not found. The name has been set to 'Forgent' (the company's own short name).
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