Rankings Grid & electrical equipment FuelCell Energy
FuelCell Energy
37
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−12
- Multiples vs own history−11
- Absolute price level−9
Strengths
- Net cash+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 37, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 10.50 USD
- Median analyst target
- 21.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +100.0%
- Analysts
- 11
- Target range
- 8.00 – 32.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +17%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−27 of −30
- −12MarginNegative gross margin of -32% and operating margin of -88% (TTM); losses every single year 2021-2026 (net margin between -90% and -150%). The company loses money already on production.
- −8DilutionShare count has risen 144% over a year and 30% in the latest quarter alone; dilution every year since 2021 (including -51% in 2021 and -56% in 2025). Operations are financed by ongoing share issuance - most recently an issue of 225m USD at 21 USD in July 2026.
- −4Quality of growthRevenue is flat (USD 154m TTM against 158m in 2025) and is expected to fall 8% in fiscal year 2026; Q3 revenue fell 29% to USD 33m due to fewer module deliveries to Korea.
- −3MoatBloom Energy delivers approx. 20 times as much revenue with a positive margin and has approval at all the large US hyperscalers; FuelCell will not reach 100 MW of annual production until October 2026 and also competes with gas turbines and engines.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−20 of −35
- −11Multiples vs own historyP/S 9.4 versus 1.7-4.0 in 2023-25 and EV/Sales 6.2 versus 1.3-2.4; P/TBV 1.48 versus 0.3-0.74. Market cap has risen 336% since fiscal 2025 without revenue or margins improving.
- −9Absolute price levelNo earnings or positive FCF to price: EV of 0.95bn USD for 154m USD revenue with negative gross margin, FCF yield −7.9% and analysts expect losses in 2027 as well (EPS −1.02).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−16 of −35
- −4Order book qualityOf the 3.6bn USD order book, only 1.3bn (+4%) is firm; 2.4bn is 'allocated' capacity tied to a possible expansion with Fit Energy, which is not yet firm contracts. Fit Energy Phase 0 already cost 17m USD in Q3.
- −4Customer concentrationSouth Korea accounted for USD 90m of USD 154m (58%) of TTM revenue, and the Q3 decline was due precisely to fewer Korean module deliveries; US revenue has fallen from USD 87m to USD 64m.
- −3Cash burnFree cash flow of −113m USD (TTM) and a Q3 net loss of 45m USD; positive adjusted EBITDA is only targeted for Q4 of fiscal 2027 and is conditional on the awarded order book becoming binding.
- −3Short interest and sentiment31% of shares are sold short (up from 20.1m to 24.9m shares in a month), and beta is 2.46; the share price is driven by the data-center theme rather than earnings.
- −2Macro and AI dependenceThe entire investment case now rests on data-centre agreements (Fit Energy up to 380 MW, SDC up to 450 MW, first 75 MW reservation in Texas), all 'up to' frameworks; a slowdown in AI data-centre construction removes the case.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2Net cashNet cash of USD 492m (cash 658m, debt 166m) - about a third of market cap - gives several years of funding at the current burn.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Fiscal year to 31/10; TTM to July 2026. Loss every year, so P/E and FCF multiples do not exist; T2 is based on P/S, EV/Sales and P/TBV versus own history. The exact breakdown of share issuances (ATM vs. offering) and insider trading has not been examined (0 points). Fit Energy's financial strength as a counterparty has not been examined. Customer share in South Korea is geographic revenue, not confirmed as one customer.
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