Rankings Grid & electrical equipment Metacon
Metacon
36
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Funding and liquidity−9
- FCF yield−7
Strengths
- Public support+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 2
- Price
- 0.08 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 147m
- Cash runway
- 10 months
- Cash / debt
- 83.0 / 91.0m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +45%
Bull case
The projects in Greece and Romania are delivered with a positive gross margin, new orders of SEK 300m+ are coming, and revenue of SEK 300–400m gives positive EBITDA. At 1x sales the market cap would be SEK 300–400m, about 1.5–2x – a tripling also requires a new hydrogen wave and no further dilution.
Bear case
Milestone payments are delayed, the bridge loan squeezes cash, and the company must do another share issue far below SEK 0.20 (the previous one was subscribed only 29%). Shareholders are heavily diluted again, and the price could halve or more.
Catalysts
- 30 Sep 2026Maturity of the SEK 50m bridge loan from Fenja Capital (status not found)binary inderes.fi
- 4 Nov 2026Q3 2026 report: cash after loan repayment, milestone payments and order bookgradual stockanalysis.com
- Nov 2026CFO Mattias Jansson is stepping downgradual inderes.fi
Risk of going to zerohigh – the cash lasts less than a year after the bridge loan, working capital is almost zero, and the company needs new capital almost every year; bankruptcy is not the most likely outcome, but repeated dilution towards zero is.
Next financingThe SEK 50m bridge loan matured on 30/9/2026; if it was paid from cash, about SEK 30–35m is left, equal to a few months of operations, unless milestone payments from Greece/Romania come in. A new share issue or new debt financing is likely within 6–12 months.
Warrants & convertiblesConvertible to Fenja Capital of up to SEK 35m, conversion price SEK 0.20 (within 10 trading days of registration) otherwise SEK 0.25 – up to about 140m new shares (+8%). 54.1m warrants series 2026/2031 to Fenja, strike SEK 0.28, to 31/5/2031 (+3%). Both are above the current price of SEK 0.124.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNone found (not systematically checked). Insiders own about 0.5% according to stockanalysis.
Largest ownersNot examined. The guarantors in the June issue were allotted a large part of the 545m new shares; Fenja Capital is a lender and warrant holder.
Circio check(1) Small market value: yes – DKK 147m. (2) Hot theme: no – hydrogen is out of fashion. (3) Upcoming milestones: partly – project milestones and Q3, but no binary upside event. (4) Large partner: no – the customer Motor Oil is large, but there is no strategic partner with ownership; Klimatklivet support is public. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – less than a year of runway. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −77% in a year and 38% below the issue price.
Why this asymmetryLow sales multiple and real revenue, but low gross margin, tight liquidity and a share issue the market would not subscribe make the next dilution very likely. The upside requires both profitable projects and a new hydrogen euphoria.
How the score is built
From 100 to 36, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.10 SEK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −82%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−27 of −30
- −10MarginGross margin only 13.8% and operating margin −26% (TTM); operating losses every year 2021–2026. Q2 2026: EBITDA −SEK 29.2m vs −8.0m a year earlier despite higher revenue – the margin is worsening.
- −5Quality of growthRevenue has risen from SEK 40m to 270m (TTM), but the growth comes from a few large projects in Greece (Motor Oil) and Romania, invoiced on milestones – low-margin project revenue, not recurring.
- −5MoatThe gross margin was negative in 2023–2024 (−4% and −79%) and is only 14% now: Metacon is a small systems integrator of electrolysis plants with no documented pricing power against large competitors.
- −5Capital allocationShare issues in 2021 (SEK 173m), 2022 (121m), 2024 (173m) and 2026 (77m at SEK 0.20); the share price has fallen from SEK 2.86 (2021) to 0.12. Shareholders have funded annual losses without the company becoming profitable.
- −2Future segmentIts own hydrogen production in Uppsala (support of about SEK 111m from Klimatklivet) is a new, capital-heavy leg that has not yet been built or proven.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−10 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyP/S about 0.8 and EV/sales about 0.8 (adjusted for 1.75bn shares) vs 1.8–2.3 in 2024–2025 – low vs history, but on project revenue with 14% gross margin and a loss the sales multiple is a weak anchor.
- −7FCF yieldNegative free cash flow every year: −SEK 39m TTM (about −18% of market cap) and −SEK 59m to −97m in 2023–2025.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−23 of −35
- −9Funding and liquidityA SEK 50m bridge loan from Fenja Capital had to be repaid by 30/9/2026 at the latest and depended on milestone payments from customers; current ratio 1.01 and working capital only SEK 2.4m. With EBITDA of about −SEK 29m per quarter, the cash lasts less than a year.
- −7DilutionA rights issue of 545m new shares (+45%) at SEK 0.20 was only 28.6% subscribed – the guarantors took the rest, and the price is now 38% below the issue price. On top come a convertible of up to SEK 35m at SEK 0.20–0.25 and 54m warrants at SEK 0.28 to Fenja.
- −5Customer concentrationLiquidity depends on payments from the Motor Oil projects (about EUR 4.1m received in the spring, restricted bank funds only released in June); a delayed project could trigger a new capital raise.
- −2ManagementCFO Mattias Jansson leaves the company in November 2026, in the middle of a tight liquidity situation.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2Public supportAwarded about SEK 111m from Klimatklivet for a hydrogen production plant in Uppsala (2/7/2026) – reduces the self-funding of the new project.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3). stockanalysis' share count (1.36bn) is outdated; after the rights issue in June 2026 there are 1,750.6m shares (market cap about SEK 218m at SEK 0.1244). Cash of SEK 83m at 30/6 is from stockanalysis and may be affected by the issue proceeds; operating cash flow for Q2 was not found in the press release. Unknown whether the SEK 50m bridge loan from Fenja Capital was repaid by 30/9/2026 at the latest. No stockanalysis forecast page (404 = no analysts). Largest owners and insider trades not examined. Hydrogen does not fit the list cleanly; chose 'Power grid & electrical equipment' as for Nel.
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