Rankings Grid & electrical equipment Nel
Nel
32
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Multiples vs own history−7
- FCF yield−7
Strengths
- Net cash+3
- Strategic partner+2
- Broad customer base / defence+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 1.43 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 2,578m
- Cash runway
- 26 months
- Cash / debt
- 1,328.0 / 218.0m NOK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +0%
Bull case
The PA platform wins large orders (e.g. 2–3 projects of 100+ MW in 2027), Herøya fills up towards 500 MW–1 GW, and revenue rises from NOK 0.75 to 2–3bn with positive EBITDA. With NOK 1.1bn in net cash the share could then trade at 2–3x sales = NOK 5–8bn, i.e. 1.5–2x – a tripling also requires renewed hydrogen enthusiasm.
Bear case
No PA orders, EU subsidies fail to materialise, revenue falls towards NOK 600–700m, and a burn of NOK 150m per quarter forces a large share issue in 2027–2028 at a low price. The value falls towards net cash (NOK 0.6) or below.
Catalysts
- 15 Oct 2026Q3 2026 report: order intake incl. Collins orders (about USD 20m) and any first PA ordersgradual stockanalysis.com
- latest about December 2026New CEO (Volldal stepped down with six months' notice in June)gradual ad-hoc-news.de
- autumn 2026The EU's delegated acts on qualifying hydrogen (postponed from July)binary investing.com
Risk of going to zerolow – net cash of NOK 1.1bn and about 2 years' runway; the risk is dilution and slow erosion, not bankruptcy within 2 years.
Next financingCFO: 'no rush'. With about NOK 150m of burn per quarter (H1 2026 incl. the Iwatani settlement), the cash lasts to about the end of 2028; in practice capital must be raised in 2027–2028 if the PA platform does not bring large orders, as the company wants to keep a buffer.
Warrants & convertiblesNo convertibles found; only a small share option programme (share-based pay NOK 2m/year). Stockanalysis shows +6.7% shares y/y because of the Samsung E&A placement in 2025; no new shares issued in the last 12 months.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNone found (not systematically checked on Newsweb).
Largest ownersSamsung E&A about 9.1%; other top owners not examined. Insiders own 0.01%, institutions about 22%.
Circio check(1) Small market value: no – DKK 2.6bn. (2) Hot theme: no – hydrogen is out of fashion, and the US has dropped subsidies. (3) Upcoming milestones: partly – first PA orders and a new CEO, but no dated binary event. (4) Large partner: yes – Samsung E&A owns 9.1%, Collins Aerospace/US Navy orders. (5) Funding for 2+ years: partly – about 26 months of runway. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – NOK 2.09 vs 15.2 in 2021 (−86%), near the 52-week low.
Why this asymmetryThe downside is cushioned by net cash (about 30% of market cap), but the upside is limited: the company is large, the order book is lower than a year ago, analysts are negative (consensus 'Sell', median price target NOK 2.00), and 3–10x requires both a commercial technology breakthrough and a new hydrogen wave.
How the score is built
From 100 to 32, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 1.93 NOK
- Median analyst target
- 2.00 NOK
- Upside to median
- +3.7%
- Analysts
- 12
- Target range
- 1.20 – 4.20 NOK
- 52-week change
- −13%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−29 of −30
- −10MarginAn operating loss of NOK 602m on revenue of NOK 935m (TTM, operating margin about −64%); EBITDA −NOK 396m. The operating result has been negative every year 2021–2026 (−NOK 389m to −951m), and analysts expect continued losses in 2026 and 2027 (EPS −0.32 and −0.19).
- −6Quality of growthRevenue fell 31% in 2025 to NOK 963m and is expected to fall a further 22% to NOK 750m in 2026. Alkaline revenue has almost halved from 1,009 to NOK 557m (TTM). Q2 2026: contract revenue NOK 153m, −12% y/y.
- −5Future segmentThe whole alkaline future rests on the pressurised PA platform, which was only launched commercially on 6/5/2026; management itself says orders will take 'a few more months', and customers typically take 1–2 years before ordering. The alkaline order book is only NOK 224m.
- −4MoatManagement says alkaline needs 'hundreds of MW a year' to make money, while inventory turnover has fallen from 1.97 (2021) to 0.45 – the Herøya plant is far from full utilisation. Chinese alkaline producers are pressing prices, and Nel has no documented pricing power.
- −4Capital allocationImpairments of NOK 799m in 2025 after several years of investment in capacity (capex NOK 528–574m in 2023–2024); share issues of NOK 1.26–1.61bn a year in 2021–2023 plus NOK 353m in 2025. Share capital has been burned off while the price has fallen from 15.2 to NOK 2.09.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−14 of −35
- −7Multiples vs own historyP/S 4.1 and EV/sales 2.9 vs 3.25 and 2.0 at end-2024 and 4.3/2.7 in 2025 – more expensive than a year ago, even though revenue has fallen. P/B 1.07 vs 0.91 in 2024. No earnings to measure on.
- −7FCF yieldNegative free cash flow in all years: −NOK 435m TTM (about −11% of the NOK 3.84bn market cap), and analysts expect −NOK 433m in 2026.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−20 of −35
- −4ManagementCEO Håkon Volldal announced his departure in June 2026; as of September no successor has been found, in the middle of the launch of the new platform.
- −2LawsuitsSettlement with Iwatani over faulty hydrogen fuelling stations in California: Nel pays USD 7.5m (about NOK 70m hit Q2 EBITDA).
- −6Regulation and demandManagement calls the US 'a much harder market' without subsidies and without real offtaker demand; in the EU the delegated acts on hydrogen are postponed, and member states have yet to implement the RED. Sales depend on policy that Nel does not control.
- −5Funding and dilutionThe cash fell from NOK 1,928m to 1,328m in a year (about NOK 150m per quarter); without a marked revenue lift it lasts to about 2028, and the company has historically raised capital almost every year.
- −3Order book qualityThe order book of NOK 1,213m is 3% lower than a year ago and 82% PEM; conversion to revenue has been weak (revenue falling despite earlier orders).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+6 of +15
- +3Net cashNet cash of NOK 1.11bn (NOK 0.60 per share, about 29% of market cap); debt of NOK 218m is primarily leases. Current ratio 4.0.
- +2Strategic partnerSamsung E&A bought 9.1% of Nel for about USD 33m and entered a cooperation agreement on large hydrogen plants – largest single shareholder.
- +1Broad customer base / defenceOrders totalling about USD 20m from Collins Aerospace for PEM stacks for oxygen in US submarines (booked in Q3 2026, delivery 2027–2028) – stable niche demand independent of hydrogen subsidies.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3). Loss-making in all years; PE, PEG and FCF multiples are n/a. Q2 EBITDA is burdened by NOK 70m from the Iwatani settlement (one-off item). stockanalysis states +6.7% shares y/y, but no new shares have been issued since the Samsung E&A placement in 2025. Q3 report 15/10/2026 (stockanalysis; one news source mentions 21/10). Insider trades and largest owners besides Samsung E&A are not examined systematically. Hydrogen does not fit the list cleanly; chose 'Power grid & electrical equipment' (electrolysers = electrical process equipment).
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