NIO
55
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin and profitability−8
- Capital allocation and dilution−7
- Moat−5
Strengths
- Margin turnaround+2
- Net cash+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 55, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 3.19 USD
- Median analyst target
- 5.79 USD
- Upside to median
- +81.5%
- Analysts
- 23
- Target range
- 3.70 – 10.16 USD
- 52-week change
- −56%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−20 of −30
- −8Margin and profitabilityStill loss-making: net result −CNY 4.8bn TTM (−4.2%), operating margin −3.3%, ROE −45%. Progress is large (operating margin −40.7% in 2023), but the company has lost CNY 89bn in five years and has never made money on a GAAP basis.
- −7Capital allocation and dilutionThe share count rose 15.3% in a year after dilution of 21% (2024), 11% (2025) and 33% (2021). Growth has been financed with new shares (CNY 12.0bn in 2025, CNY 21.0bn in 2023) and supplier credit (accounts payable +CNY 18.3bn in 2025).
- −5MoatThe battery-swap network is a differentiator, but capital-heavy, and the gross margin of 17.4% is below XPeng (20.9%). In a Chinese EV market with dozens of producers and BYD as price leader, there is no documented pricing power.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 3 findings−8 of −35
- −1Multiples vs own historyP/S 0.52 and EV/Sales 0.39 are the lowest ever (P/S 1.0–8.9 in 2021–2025), but forward P/E is 54 on a barely positive adjusted 2026 result; the low multiple is because earnings are missing.
- −2PeersP/S 0.52 vs XPeng 0.82 and Li Auto 0.69, but P/B 14.5 vs 2.3 and 1.1, and Li Auto trades almost at net cash (EV/Sales 0.02). No real discount once the balance sheet is included.
- −5Absolute price levelEarnings yield −8.0% and FCF yield −5.3% at a market cap of USD 8.7bn; no dividend, and shareholder yield is −15.3% due to dilution.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−18 of −35
- −4Customers are shiftingQ3 guidance of 108,000–111,000 cars is only +0.3–3.1% vs Q2; September gave 37,408 cars (+7.7% y/y), the year's lowest growth, and the ONVO brand fell 43%. JPMorgan downgraded to Neutral (target price 7.00 → 4.50 USD).
- −5Competition and price warChinese EV price war with BYD, Tesla, Xiaomi, Li Auto and XPeng; NIO expects further cost increases of CNY 2,000-3,000 per car in H2 and only a stable car margin.
- −4VIE structure and delisting riskThe ADR owns a Cayman holding company with contracts to the Chinese operating companies (VIE). The Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act and US–China tensions create risk of delisting and of shareholder rights being unenforceable.
- −3Debt and liquidityDebt/equity 2.03, current ratio 1.02 and quick ratio 0.68; interest cover −4.3. Net cash of CNY 14.1bn rests on CNY 29bn of debt and large trade payables.
- −2GovernanceFounder William Li controls via dual share classes (class C shares with more votes); insiders own 7.2% of the capital, and minority shareholders have limited influence.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Margin turnaroundThe car margin rose to 18.5% in Q2 (10.3% a year earlier), deliveries rose 49.4% to 107,658, and adjusted net income was positive (CNY 26m) for the first time.
- +1Net cashCash and investments CNY 43.1bn vs debt CNY 29.0bn: net cash CNY 14.1bn at June 2026 (about 0 at the turn of the year).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The Nordnet listing is the ADR (NYSE, USD); financials in CNY. Figures through Q2 2026 (TTM June 2026); Q3 report about 24/11-2026. Chinese VIE structure: ADR holders own a Cayman holding company, not the operating company. Equity is eroded by many years of losses, so P/B is misleadingly high. Adjusted (non-GAAP) profit in Q2 was only CNY 26m.
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