Rankings Pharma & medtech ALK-Abelló
ALK-Abelló
81
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Absolute price level−5
- Segment of the future (pipeline)−2
- Quality of growth (older segment)−2
Strengths
- Raised guidance+2
- Net cash+2
- Stronger, not just bigger+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 81, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 243.20 DKK
- Median analyst target
- 287.50 DKK
- Upside to median
- +18.2%
- Analysts
- 6
- Target range
- 270.00 – 300.00 DKK
- 52-week change
- +15%
- P/E (trailing)
- 39.9
- Forward P/E
- 34.9
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−5 of −30
- −2Segment of the future (pipeline)The next growth leg, the peanut tablet for food allergy, only enters phase 3 at the end of 2026; until then growth rests on existing tablets and adrenaline products.
- −2Quality of growth (older segment)SCIT/SLIT drops (29% of Q2 revenue) grew only 7% and mainly due to SCIT deliveries to China, while tablets grew 22%.
- −1Concentration in one therapeutic areaAll revenue (DKK 6.8bn TTM) comes from allergy: tablets, injections/drops and adrenaline pens – no diversification if the treatment paradigm or reimbursements change.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−7 of −35
- −2Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 30.1 vs 30.9–43.2 in 2022–2025, EV/EBITDA 20.8 vs 26.5–34.0 and P/FCF 24 vs 33–180 – the lowest valuation in five years, but the history is a high starting point.
- −5Absolute price levelTrailing P/E 33.9, P/B 6.6 and EV/Sales 6.5; earnings yield 3.0%, FCF yield 4.1% and dividend yield 0.7% at a market cap of DKK 47.7bn.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−7 of −35
- −2Governance and controlLundbeckfonden owns 40.3% of the capital, but has 67.2% of the votes via A and AA shares; minority shareholders effectively have no influence.
- −2Falling cash flow in 2026FCF is expected to be only slightly above DKK 1bn in 2026 vs about DKK 1.4bn in 2025, even though H1 FCF was DKK 889m; analysts' FCF estimate for 2026 is DKK 1.08bn.
- −2Unstable international marketsInternational Markets grew only 9% in tablets after a weak period, and drops sales depend on lumpy SCIT deliveries to China.
- −1Management change in R&DNew head of research and development (Jacob Glenting) from 1 Sep. 2026, just as the peanut program is about to enter phase 3.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+6 of +15
- +2Raised guidanceGuidance raised twice in 2026: in May to 13–16% growth (from 11–15%) and EBIT margin about 26% (from 25%), in August to 14–16%; Q2 revenue +18% and EBIT +19%.
- +2
- +2Stronger, not just biggerOperating margin has risen from 7.9% in 2021 to 26.9% (TTM), gross margin from 61.3% to 68.2% and ROIC from 6.2% to 24.4%.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The B share on Nasdaq Copenhagen (ALK B). Peers (e.g. Stallergenes Greer, which is unlisted) are not compared; US tariffs on pharmaceuticals and price regulation (MFN) are not investigated. The reason why the FCF guidance for 2026 (slightly above DKK 1bn) is below the 2025 level has not been reviewed. The share price decline from about DKK 227 at the turn of the year is not tied to a single news item. Q3 report 17 Nov 2026.
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