Rankings Pharma & medtech Bavarian Nordic
Bavarian Nordic
73
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- ROIC and margin−6
- Quality of growth−5
- Multiples vs own history−5
Strengths
- Raised guidance+3
- Net cash+2
- Buybacks+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 73, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 244.00 DKK
- Median analyst target
- 280.00 DKK
- Upside to median
- +14.8%
- Analysts
- 4
- Target range
- 270.00 – 290.00 DKK
- 52-week change
- +5%
- P/E (trailing)
- 12.6
- Forward P/E
- 19.9
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−14 of −30
- −6ROIC and marginROIC 8.3% vs WACC 9.5%, down from 29.9% in 2023 and 11.8% in 2024; the EBIT margin is 18% vs 30% in 2023. Amortisation of the acquired GSK vaccines (about DKK 0.6bn a year) weighs on returns.
- −5Quality of growthRevenue is expected at about DKK 5.7bn in 2026 – below 7.1bn in 2023 and 6.2bn in 2025 – because mpox sales (Public Preparedness) fall to DKK 2.5bn. Travel Health grows 26%, but EPS is expected −27% in 2026.
- −3Future segmentThe pipeline behind the current vaccines is early: Lyme disease is preclinical, EBV enters phase 1 at the end of 2026, and equine encephalitis is in phase 2 awaiting defence funding. Growth after 2027 rests on existing travel vaccines.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−7 of −35
- −5Multiples vs own historyThe forward P/E of 18.7 is above the whole 9.8–18.2 range in 2022–2025, and EV/EBITDA of 7.9 is at the top of 4.7–8.2 in 2023–2025. The trailing P/E of 11.3 looks cheap but is lifted by one-offs.
- −2PeersForward P/E 18.7 vs Sanofi 8.2 (EV/EBITDA 7.7 vs 7.9) and Dynavax 29.8. No discount to big pharma despite lower ROIC and falling revenue in 2026.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−10 of −35
- −4Customer concentrationPublic Preparedness (mpox/Jynneos) was 42% of revenue in H1 and is sold to a few government customers (the US and EU partners). Orders are lumpy, and the segment is expected to normalise towards about DKK 2bn a year.
- −3Regulation (US)Vimkunya guidance has been cut from DKK 250m to 200m because the CDC has not yet adopted the ACIP recommendation from April 2025; sales were only DKK 78m in H1. US vaccine policy has become a real risk.
- −2Management changePaul Chaplin, who has led the company for about 20 years, is stepping down; new CEO Tarja Stenvall (from Sanofi) only starts on 15 October 2026 after a long search.
- −1Inventory and return riskTBE vaccines with a short shelf life (now 24 months) create a risk of returns in the autumn, and management itself says the 61% Q2 gross margin may not be structural.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+7 of +15
- +3Raised guidance2026 guidance raised in August: revenue about DKK 5.7bn (top of 5.5–5.7) and an EBITDA margin of about 30% (previously 28%); Travel Health +45% in Q2.
- +2Net cashNet cash DKK 2.2bn after the debt to GSK and Emergent was fully repaid; debt/equity 0.01.
- +2BuybacksBuyback programme of DKK 750m over 6–7 months (first tranche of 250m from 1 September) vs FCF of DKK 1.24bn (TTM) and no dividend – covered by cash flow.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
TTM results (P/E 11.3) are lifted by about DKK 0.8bn outside operations (profit before tax 1.98bn vs EBIT 1.15bn); forward P/E 18.7 is more representative. Only 4 analysts; vaccine peers are few and different (Sanofi, Dynavax)
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