BMW
54
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−9
- China and profit warning−6
- Multiples vs own history and peers−5
Strengths
- Growth outside China and Neue Klasse+2
- Financial Services and motorcycles+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 54, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 58.26 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 66.50 EUR
- Upside to median
- +14.1%
- Analysts
- 20
- Target range
- 55.00 – 82.50 EUR
- 52-week change
- −28%
- P/E (trailing)
- 5.5
- Forward P/E
- 8.3
- PEG
- 6.89
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−21 of −30
- −9MarginThe EBIT margin in the automotive segment was 2.3% in Q2 2026 (5.4% a year earlier) and 3.6% in H1, and full-year guidance is 1–3% vs BMW's own target of 8–10% and 9.8% in 2023. The group gross margin has fallen from 18.0% (2023) to 12.4% TTM.
- −3ROICROIC is 2.9% TTM, and ROE 6.6% vs 16–18% in 2022–23. BMW itself guides automotive ROCE to only 1–5% for 2026.
- −4Quality of growthRevenue is €128.0bn TTM vs 155.5bn in 2023, and automotive revenue fell 7.7% in Q2 on 4.9% fewer cars delivered. EPS is expected to fall 44% to €6.64 in 2026 (€17.68 in 2023).
- −2Future segment (EVs)The EV share rose to 19.8% in Q2 (31% in Europe), and the Neue Klasse (iX3) promises 40–50% lower drivetrain costs. But in China the EV share is only 9.7%, and sales of both electric and petrol cars to Chinese customers are falling in favour of local brands.
- −3Capital allocationThe 2025 dividend (€4.40 per share, about €2.6bn) and the third €2bn buyback programme together exceed the automotive FCF guidance of more than €2.5bn for 2026. Payouts are therefore partly funded from the balance sheet while earnings halve.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−5 of −35
- −5Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E (2026e) 8.4 vs 5.2–8.3 in 2021–25, i.e. the highest in the period, because earnings halve. Trailing P/E 5.2 vs 3.0–7.9 (median 5.7) and EV/EBIT 17.4 vs 8.0–15.3 (highest, but distorted by the financing arm). P/B 0.34 is the lowest (0.52–0.77). Peers: Mercedes forward 7.5, Volkswagen 4.1.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−11 of −35
- −6China and profit warningRetail sales in China fell 30.2% in Q2 (from 169,000 to 118,000 cars). That triggered a profit warning in June: automotive margin guidance was cut from 4–6% to 1–3%, and group pre-tax profit is now expected to fall markedly. The stock fell to its lowest level since autumn 2020.
- −3US tariffsTariffs take about 1.25 percentage points off the automotive EBIT margin in 2026, a clearly bigger burden than the year before.
- −2Macro and currencyBMW cites the Middle East conflict, high energy prices and weak consumer confidence in several markets as reasons for the downgrade, and currency cost €400m of EBIT in Q2 alone.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Growth outside China and Neue KlasseSales rose 7.6% in Europe and 11.9% in the US in Q2, and EV sales in Europe rose 38% to almost a third of the region's sales; demand for the new iX3 (Neue Klasse) is high.
- +1Financial Services and motorcyclesNew customer contracts in Financial Services rose 5.0% in H1 with return-on-equity guidance of 13–16%, and the motorcycle division delivered a 15.2% EBIT margin in Q2.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The ordinary share (BMW). stockanalysis' net debt of €101bn, EV of €136bn and negative FCF of −€5.3bn include BMW Financial Services' leasing and loan book; the automotive business itself has net financial assets, but the figure at 30/6/2026 could not be verified in the half-year material and is therefore not given a plus (upper uncertainty). Automotive FCF was €1.3bn in H1. Cyclical = yes. The Quandt/Klatten family owns about 47% (insiders 38% at stockanalysis). The 7.9% dividend yield rests on €4.40 for 2025; analysts expect about €2.4 for 2026. Q3 comes 4/11.
Also in Autos & parts
The highest scores in the same industry.
