Rankings Pharma & medtech Cantargia
Cantargia
54
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Quality of growth−8
- Dilution and weak demand−6
Strengths
- Net cash+3
- Partnership+3
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 5
- Price
- 0.96 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 262m
- Cash runway
- 27 months
- Cash / debt
- 290.0 / 0.0m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +33%
Bull case
Strong phase 2a data in MDS/AML in 2027 or promising early data in combination with daraxonrasib lead to a licence deal for nadunolimab, and Otsuka triggers a CAN10 milestone. EV is only about SEK 0.12bn, so a deal with USD 30–50m upfront could 2–3x the share on its own; 5–10x requires a large deal or convincing randomised data.
Bear case
The MDS effect does not hold in phase 2a, the combination study gives no clear added value, and no partner materialises. Cash is burned at about SEK 130m a year, and a new share issue is required in 2028 – the latest was subscribed only 21%. The share price could fall below SEK 1 (−40–60%).
Catalysts
- 25 Nov 2026Q3 report: cash after the share issue and update on the MDS/AML studygradual stockanalysis.com
- Q1 2027Start of phase 1b study with nadunolimab + daraxonrasib (RAS inhibitor) in pancreatic cancer at US clinics; first data 9–12 months latergradual biospace.com
- 2027Phase 2a data for nadunolimab + azacitidine/venetoclax in high-risk MDS/AML (about 40 patients; 5/5 complete remission in phase 1b)binary investing.com
- No datePossible milestone payments from Otsuka for CAN10 (up to USD 580m in total)binary biospace.com
Risk of going to zerolow – cash equals about 70% of market cap, no debt drawn (stated) and runway to mid-2028
Next financingCash SEK 222m at 30/6/2026 plus about 68m net from the June share issue (paid in after quarter-end) = about 290m. Burn 26–37m per quarter (operating loss −13% y/y). The company states runway to mid-2028 without Otsuka milestones; the Fenja loan of up to SEK 75m is an extra buffer. Next financing probably 2028 – or earlier via a licence deal for nadunolimab.
Warrants & convertibles8.72m warrants, series 2026/2031, to Fenja Capital, strike SEK 3.15, running to 31/5/2031 (about 3% dilution); the CEO has 1m options; other employee programmes not examined. No convertibles found.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNo insider purchases found; CEO Hilde Steineger owns 0 shares and has 1m options. The insider list at the Swedish FSA has not been reviewed in detail.
Largest ownersAt 31/3/2026: Fjärde AP-fonden 9.5%, Avanza Pension 6.1%, Handelsbanken Fonder 2.9% (before the June share issue, in which guarantors took 39%)
Circio check(1) Small market value: yes – about DKK 260m. (2) Hot theme: partly – RAS inhibitors in pancreatic cancer are very hot, but Cantargia is only an add-on. (3) Upcoming data: yes – MDS/AML phase 2a and the RAS combination in 2027. (4) Large partner: partly – Otsuka bought CAN10, but nadunolimab has no partner. (5) Funding for 2+ years: yes – runway to mid-2028. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −42% in a year, about −90% since 2021, below the issue price and EV close to zero.
Why this asymmetryThe cash covers most of the market value, and the Otsuka milestones are free options, so the downside is limited. But nadunolimab has failed to attract a partner for years, and the market showed very low confidence in the June share issue (21% subscribed).
How the score is built
From 100 to 54, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 19 Oct 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 1.32 SEK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −48%
- P/E (trailing)
- 1.9
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−26 of −30
- −10MarginWithout the one-off income from the CAN10 sale there is almost no revenue (SEK 0.1m in Q2 2026) and an operating loss of about SEK 36m per quarter (−72.7m in H1 2026).
- −8Quality of growthThe lead candidate nadunolimab has been in the clinic for many years without reaching phase 3 or finding a partner; the new direction in pancreatic cancer is a phase 1b study with a RAS inhibitor that only starts in Q1 2027.
- −4MoatThe IL1RAP antibody is first-in-class, but without clinically proven value in a randomised study; bispecific antibodies and ADCs are still preclinical.
- −4Capital allocationRepeated share issues (SEK 250m in 2022, 59m in 2023, 120m in 2025, 75m in 2026) and a price fall from SEK 15.36 (2021) to about 1.45; even after the Otsuka money, new capital had to be raised within a year.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−3 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own history and peersP/E 2.3 is false (one-off sale). Market cap about SEK 410m vs about SEK 290m in cash pro forma (EV about SEK 0.12bn); P/B 1.44 at the bottom of own history (1.3–4.1). Cheap, but the price reflects that nadunolimab is not validated.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−17 of −35
- −6Dilution and weak demandThe June 2026 rights issue at SEK 2.25 was only 21% subscribed; guarantors took 39%, and only SEK 75m of 124m was raised. The share count rose to 281.9m (about +33% in a year).
- −2Loan with warrantsLoan agreement with Fenja Capital of up to SEK 75m; the lender receives 8.72m warrants at SEK 3.15 expiring in 2031.
- −4Execution and strategy shiftThe plan for a phase 3 study in pancreatic cancer has been replaced by a new phase 1b combination study; first data are expected 9–12 months after start. Positive MDS data come from only 5 evaluable patients in an investigator-initiated study.
- −2CompetitionRevolution Medicines' RAS inhibitor daraxonrasib doubled survival in 2nd line pancreatic cancer and is FDA-approved; nadunolimab must now prove added value on top of a new standard of care.
- −3Share price riskShare price is down 42% over 52 weeks and trades about 35% below the issue price of SEK 2.25 from June 2026.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+6 of +15
- +3Net cashCash SEK 222m at 30/6 with no debt plus about SEK 75m gross from the share issue – about 70% of market value; the company states runway to mid-2028.
- +3PartnershipOtsuka bought the CAN10 programme in September 2025 (about SEK 309m recognised as revenue) with possible milestone payments of up to USD 580m plus royalties.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Clinical biotech without recurring revenue: the TTM profit (SEK 167m, P/E 2.3) comes solely from the sale of CAN10 to Otsuka in Q3 2025 and is a one-off; stockanalysis shows 248.6m shares, but after the June 2026 share issue there are 281.9m; the SEK 222m cash at 30/6 is before the issue proceeds (about 75m gross); terms and drawings on the Fenja loan not examined; no analysts (forecast 404)
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