Rankings Machinery & automation Capsol Technologies
Capsol Technologies
39
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Funding and liquidity−10
- Quality of growth−7
Strengths
- Strategic partners+3
- Insider buying+2
- Commercial pipeline+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 2.96 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 227m
- Cash runway
- 3 months
- Cash / debt
- 20.7 / 30.3m NOK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +11%
Bull case
Holcim/Dyckerhoff, E.ON or a US utility moves to a full-scale plant under Capsol's licence, so revenue becomes recurring licence and service income of NOK 150–300m. At 3–4x sales the market value could reach NOK 0.6–1bn, about 2–3x today.
Bear case
No large orders, revenue keeps falling, and the cash has to be topped up with a share issue far below NOK 4.3. The DNB facility is scaled down from 2027, and carbon capture remains dependent on political support – the price could halve.
Catalysts
- H2 2026CapsolGo demonstration at a UK gas power plantgradual mfn.se
- 11 Nov 2026Q3 2026 report: liquidity, drawdown on the DNB facility and any capital raisebinary stockanalysis.com
- 2026–2027Conversion of MoU with a US utility (CapsolGT for gas power) and about 150 gas turbine leads into paid projectsbinary mfn.se
Risk of going to zeromedium – very short runway, but industrial owners (Holcim, Munters), insider buying and a bank facility make a rescue issue likely rather than bankruptcy. Dilution is the biggest risk.
Next financingThe cash at 30/6 equals about 3 months of operating burn; the company has a revolving facility at DNB (size not disclosed), whose limits are scaled down from 2027. The goal is to 'narrow the gap' to break-even in H2 2026, not to reach it. A new directed issue or rights issue should be expected around the Q3 report (11/11/2026) or in Q1 2027.
Warrants & convertiblesNo convertibles found. Share-based pay (NOK 3.9m in Q2 2026) and an employee share programme exist; number of options and strike not examined.
Insiders, last 12 months9/3/2026: chairman Chris Barkey bought 50,500 shares at NOK 4.58 (about NOK 231,000) and owns 190,500 shares. 10/3/2026: the chairman and a board member bought again. 12/3/2026: employees bought shares in the employee programme. No sales found.
Largest ownersNot fully examined. Holcim (strategic shareholder since January 2026) and Munters are industrial owners; insiders own about 12.9% and institutions about 23% according to stockanalysis.
Circio check(1) Small market value: yes – DKK 227m. (2) Hot theme: partly – carbon capture for gas power and data centres in the US, but the sector is out of investor favour. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – the UK demonstration, studies and US leads, but no dated binary order. (4) Large partner: yes – Holcim and Munters are shareholders, Saipem is a partner. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – a few months of cash. (6) Price near the bottom: partly – −37% over 52 weeks and below the latest issue price, but not at an all-time low after a collapse.
Why this asymmetryStrong industrial partners and insider buying pull up, but revenue has halved, cash lasts only a few months, and a new share issue is almost certain. The upside requires a large licence order, which is not in sight in the short term.
How the score is built
From 100 to 39, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 4.50 NOK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −41%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−26 of −30
- −10MarginOperating margin −203% TTM; the operating loss has grown from −NOK 30m (2024) to −76m (2025) and −87m TTM. Q2 2026: operating result −NOK 21.2m on revenue of 7.6m.
- −7Quality of growthRevenue fell 57% TTM (from NOK 94m in 2024 to 42.7m); Q2 2026 −54% and Q1 −77%. Revenue is project-based (studies, CapsolGo demonstrations) and not yet recurring licence income. Gross profit H1 NOK 7m vs 23m a year earlier.
- −5Capital allocationDirected issues in September 2025 (Munters, NOK 7.54) and January 2026 (8.65m shares at NOK 5.20, about NOK 45m); the price is now NOK 4.3 vs NOK 11–13.5 in 2022–2024. The loss has almost tripled while capital has been raised.
- −4MoatThe technology (hot potassium carbonate) is licence-based, but no full-scale plant using Capsol's technology is yet in operation, and competitors (including SLB Capturi, Shell Cansolv, MHI) are far larger.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−13 of −35
- −6Multiples vs own historyEV/sales 8.1 and P/S 7.8 – higher than 5.6–7.4 in 2024–2025, even though revenue has more than halved. P/B 5.0 on equity of NOK 67m.
- −7FCF yieldFree cash flow −NOK 63.6m TTM, about −19% of market value; negative every year since 2021 (−NOK 41m to −59m).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−22 of −35
- −10Funding and liquidityCash NOK 20.7m and debt 30.3m at 30/6/2026, while operating cash flow was −NOK 17.3m and −19.2m in Q1 and Q2. Without drawing on the DNB facility (size unknown, scaled down from 2027) the cash lasts only a few months; new equity is likely in the short term.
- −4DilutionThe share count rose 11% in a year to 74.7m after two directed issues; the latest at NOK 5.20 is 17% above the current price, so the next round will be cheaper for new investors.
- −6Market and regulationDemand for carbon capture depends on CO2 prices and support schemes; Capsol wins studies and pre-studies (E.ON, five new studies in September 2026), but has not announced large binding orders, and revenue is falling.
- −2ManagementThe Chief Business Development Officer left the company (10/6/2026) in the middle of a commercial phase with falling revenue; a new CFO started in October 2025.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+6 of +15
- +3Strategic partnersHolcim became a strategic shareholder in January 2026, Munters invested a further EUR 2m in September 2025, and Saipem entered a partnership on industrial-scale carbon capture (March 2026).
- +2Insider buyingChairman Chris Barkey bought 50,500 shares at NOK 4.58 (about NOK 231,000) on 9/3/2026, and the chairman and a board member bought again on 10/3/2026.
- +1Commercial pipelineFive new engineering studies (22/9/2026), CapsolGo selected for a demonstration at a UK gas power plant (30/7/2026) and about 150 gas-turbine leads in the US.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3). The price is NOK 4.30, but DKK 2.96, so the share is under DKK 3 in Danish kroner. The Q2 report PDF was not read; figures are from stockanalysis (quarterly figures) and press releases. The size of the new revolving credit facility from DNB (May 2026) is not disclosed, so liquidity may be better than cash alone shows. No stockanalysis forecast page (404 = no analysts). Holcim's and Munters' ownership stakes, employee options and any capital raise after 30/6 are not examined. CO2 capture does not fit the list; chose 'Machinery & automation' as the nearest (process technology and equipment).
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