Rankings Machinery & automation AutoStore
AutoStore
87
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−6
- FCF yield−4
- Quality of growth−3
Strengths
- Raised guidance+2
- Order intake+1
- Buybacks+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 87, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 14.39 NOK
- Median analyst target
- 18.32 NOK
- Upside to median
- +27.3%
- Analysts
- 11
- Target range
- 12.79 – 20.62 NOK
- 52-week change
- +47%
- P/E (trailing)
- 29.6
- Forward P/E
- 26.4
- PEG
- 0.89
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−7 of −30
- −3Quality of growthRevenue fell 7% in 2024 and 10% in 2025 (to USD 538.6m). The record year 2026 at about USD 700m is only about 8% above the 2023 level of USD 645.7m, i.e. about 3% a year over three years. Growth is lumpy and follows customers' willingness to invest.
- −2ROICROIC is only 10.1% (TTM) and was 6.8% in 2025 and 13.6% at the 2023 peak. That is due to huge goodwill from the THL acquisition (P/TBV 56). The operating economics are excellent, but shareholders' capital earns only a mediocre return.
- −2MoatThe patent war with Ocado ended in 2023 with AutoStore paying GBP 200m and giving Ocado a global cross-licence on pre-2020 patents. Ocado also has exclusive rights to the Single Space Robot, so patent protection against the most direct competitor has been hollowed out.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−10 of −35
- −6Multiples vs own historyP/E 32 (TTM), forward P/E 27.5 vs 19.6–39.3 in 2022–2025, EV/EBITDA 22.9 vs 14.5–32 and P/S 7.9 vs 5.5–10.4. That is mid-range, but expensive in absolute terms for a company whose revenue shrank two years in a row, and the share price is up 74% in a year.
- −4FCF yieldStockanalysis shows a 3.5% FCF yield, but capitalised development (USD 49m TTM) is not deducted. Adjusted FCF is about USD 138m vs a market value of about USD 5.3bn, i.e. a yield of about 2.6% and EV/FCF of about 39.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−8 of −35
- −3Dependence on integratorsAll sales go through about 23 integrators (including Swisslog, owned by KUKA/Midea, Element Logic, Dematic and Bastian), so AutoStore does not own the customer relationship. Several integrators also sell competing systems, and revenue per partner is not disclosed.
- −2Tariffs and input costsManagement points to fluctuating aluminium prices as margin pressure. North American revenue fell slightly in Q2 despite strong demand, and US metal tariffs could lengthen customers' payback time.
- −2Major shareholder overhangOnly about 1.05bn of 3.36bn shares are free float. SoftBank holds a large stake with an average price of around NOK 17, which the share price is now approaching, so there is a risk of block sales.
- −1Fading momentum in H2H1 delivered USD 357.8m, but full-year guidance of about USD 700m implies a lower H2 (about USD 342m). The record quarter was driven by project timing, and the Amazon framework agreement contains no purchase commitments.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 4 findings+5 of +15
- +2Raised guidanceFull-year 2026 guidance has been raised to about USD 700m in revenue (about +30%) after Q2 revenue of USD 192.1m (+43% y/y) with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 44.9%.
- +1Order intakeRecord order intake of USD 217.6m (+45% y/y) and an order book of USD 596m (+12.6%), broadly spread across retail, 3PL and industry with no single large contracts.
- +1BuybacksA new USD 75m buyback is below both adjusted FCF (about USD 138m) and reported FCF (USD 187.5m), and no dividend is paid. The share count has fallen 0.7% in a year.
- +1Customer validationA global framework agreement with Amazon to buy AutoStore's products and solutions (without a purchase commitment); Pareto estimates a potential of USD 50–100m a year.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Accounts in USD, price in NOK; stockanalysis converts EPS correctly (NOK 0.49, P/E 32), so the P/E is not mixed. stockanalysis' FCF (USD 187.5m) does not include USD 49m of capitalised development; adjusted FCF is about USD 138m. The integrators' share of revenue is not disclosed publicly, and major shareholders' latest trades have not been examined. The Ocado lawsuits were settled in 2023, and no new cases have been found. Revenue follows the warehouse automation investment cycle (−17% in 2024–25, +30% in 2026), but it is not a price or commodity cycle, so cyclical = false.
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