Rankings Autos & parts Ebusco
Ebusco
30
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Liquidity and going concern−10
- Quality of growth−8
Strengths
- Gross margin turned+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 2
- Price
- 1.35 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 352m
- Cash runway
- 6 months
- Cash / debt
- 8.2 / 38.7m EUR
- Dilution, 12 months
- +312%
Bull case
The EUR 30m LC facility closes, Ebusco 3.0 from Golden Dragon is delivered on time, and the UAE opportunity (230 buses) and the tender pipeline of 173 buses give new orders. With a gross margin of about 28% and revenue of EUR 100-150m, EBITDA could turn positive; at EV/revenue 0.8, EV becomes 80-120m, minus about 30m net debt = EUR 50-90m equity, i.e. 1-2x today - and only 3x+ if a strategic buyer pays a premium for the whole company.
Bear case
The LC facility or the transaction fails to materialize, cash (about EUR 8m) runs out around Q1 2027, and the company has to do a deeply discounted issue or a WHOA restructuring in which the debt (38.7m) is converted and the old shareholders are wiped out. A distressed sale of the bus division could leave an empty shell.
Catalysts
- Q4 2026 (early)Extraordinary general meeting: change of auditor from EY to CFA and Rhein Holding's seat on the supervisory boardgradual ebusco.com
- 19 Aug 2027Maturity of the extended Heights loanbinary ebusco.com
- No dateLC facility of about EUR 30m with Asian partner and Gotion guaranteebinary electrive.com
- No dateStrategic transaction: sale of a controlling stake in the bus division or JVbinary electrive.com
Risk of going to zerohigh – negative equity, cash for about half a year, falling order book and material going concern uncertainty
Next financingCash of EUR 2.1m at 30/6 + 6m from Rhein Holding in August = approx. EUR 8m. Operating cash burn was 5.2m in H1 (helped by released working capital), but the EBITDA loss was 17.9m; with estimated spending of approx. 4m per quarter the cash lasts approx. 6 months, i.e. until around Q1 2027. The company is negotiating an LC facility of approx. EUR 30m with an Asian partner, guaranteed by Gotion, and a sale of a controlling stake in the bus division or a JV. No formal restructuring (WHOA) or debt conversion has been announced, but new share issues at a discount are the most likely outcome.
Warrants & convertiblesThe Heights Capital convertible has been partly repaid in shares (about 25m shares in H1 2026); the remaining loan has been extended to 19/8-2027 and can still give rise to share issuance. The Rhein Holding shares (31.7m at EUR 0.189) have a 90-day lock-up until about mid-November 2026. Other warrants not mapped.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNo management purchases found. Major shareholder Rhein Holding B.V. bought 31.7m new shares for EUR 6m at EUR 0.189 in August 2026 (stake 5.1% → 16.6%).
Largest ownersRhein Holding B.V. about 16.6%; Gotion (bought 9.3% in Nov 2024, now diluted, current stake not confirmed); the founder Peter Bijvelds (stake not confirmed); ING has previously supported the rescue plan. Insiders about 4% according to stockanalysis.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. EUR 47m. (2) Hot theme: partial – electric buses are green transition, but the theme is cold after the Chinese price war. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – LC facility and strategic transaction could change the picture. (4) Major partner: partial – Gotion is a shareholder and provides a guarantee, Golden Dragon manufactures. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – cash for approx. 6 months. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −53% in a year and approx. −99% since 2022.
Why this asymmetryThe gross margin has turned, and a strategic solution with Gotion could save the company, but with cash for about half a year, negative equity and a history of discounted issues, any upside will probably be diluted away before it reaches the current shareholders.
How the score is built
From 100 to 30, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.12 EUR
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −73%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 0.8
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−28 of −30
- −10MarginOperating margin was −64% TTM and −98% in H1 2026 (operating result −EUR 21.5m on revenue of 22m); EBITDA −17.9m and net result −24.9m in H1. Losses every year since the IPO (−EUR 32 to −201m a year).
- −8Quality of growthRevenue fell 22% to EUR 22.0m in H1 2026 with only 16 buses delivered (47 the year before). The order book has fallen from 1,717 buses at the end of 2023 to 198 (80 firm + 118 call-offs), after Potsdam cancelled 23 buses.
- −4MoatProduction has been outsourced to China's Golden Dragon, so Ebusco competes on design against large, well-capitalised players (BYD, Yutong, Solaris, VDL, Daimler) in a tender-driven market; no documented technological or cost advantage.
- −6Capital allocationThe share count has risen 312% over a year (1:5 share consolidation in 2024, issue of EUR 36m, about 25m shares to repay the Heights convertible and 31.7m new shares to Rhein Holding). ROIC −133% in 2025.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−6 of −35
- −6Multiples vs own history and peersP/S 0.68 and EV/revenue 1.2 vs EV/revenue 1.8–68 in 2021–25. Cheap on paper, but equity is negative (−EUR 14.8m), EBITDA is negative, and revenue is falling; a tender-driven bus manufacturer with a loss does not deserve a higher sales multiple than e.g. NFI Group (approx. 0.5–0.7).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−32 of −35
- −10Liquidity and going concernCash was only EUR 2.1m at 30/6-2026 vs debt of 38.7m, equity is negative, and the company states material uncertainty about continued operations. Dependent on an LC facility of about EUR 30m with a Gotion guarantee that is not yet secured.
- −8Ongoing dilution at a discountIn August, Rhein Holding received 31.7m new shares at EUR 0.189 (15% discount) for EUR 6m and now owns 16.6%; the financing need continues, so further issues at low prices are likely.
- −5Customers: cancellations and claimsRepeated cancellations (Qbuzz lawsuit lost 2023, Connect Bus and Keolis, Potsdam 23 buses in 2026) and claims for penalties for late delivery of 10.4 m EUR (2024).
- −4Sale of the bus divisionThe company is examining the sale of a controlling stake in the bus division or a joint venture; in an emergency a transaction may take place on terms that leave little for the current shareholders. No binding agreement.
- −3Governance: auditor change and managementProposed switch from EY to the smaller auditor CFA (EGM at the beginning of Q4 2026); CEO Christian Schreyer stepped down in June 2025 after nine months, and the founder is back on the executive board.
- −2Price risk and bankruptcy scoreThe price has fallen 53% over 52 weeks and about 99% from the 2022 level (adjusted for consolidation); Altman Z-score -6.25, RSI 27.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2Gross margin turnedGross profit turned positive at EUR 6.1m (27.8%) in H1 2026 vs −6.2m a year earlier; the EBITDA loss was halved, and headcount fell 12% to 248.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Dutch electric bus producer (now 'Original Equipment Designer'; Ebusco 3.0 is assembled by Golden Dragon in China). No suitable industry for buses: 'Cars & auto parts' chosen as nearest. Half-year reporting, so latest figures are H1 2026 (30/6). Market cap calculated by ourselves: 261.9m shares × EUR 0.1802 = EUR 47m (about DKK 352m; Nordnet shows 364). The Annex IX document (20/8-2026) could not be read, so the exact owner list and any working capital statement have not been reviewed; Gotion's current stake is unknown after the dilution. No analysts (forecast 404). Not a formal restructuring (WHOA), but going concern uncertainty.
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