Rankings Pharma & medtech Circio Holding
Circio Holding
30
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−12
- Margin−10
- Quality of growth−8
Strengths
- Net cash+4
- Partnership+2
- Insider buying+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 30, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 9.65 NOK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- +900%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−27 of −30
- −10MarginNo revenue. The operating loss is NOK 63m TTM vs 41m in 2025 and 42m in 2024, and costs are rising: 16 employees vs 11 recently, target of 20–25 in 2027, a 50% larger laboratory and a new facility in Stockholm.
- −8Quality of growthEverything is preclinical. The heart programme (Danon) aims for IND in H2 2028 and clinic in 2029, and eye data are expected later in 2026. In in vivo CAR-T the company has not yet confirmed that the spleen signal comes from T cells, and management is still investigating whether high or prolonged expression could cause toxicity.
- −4MoatPatented circVec vector, but big pharma now owns several circRNA companies (Lilly bought ORNA, BMS bought Orbital), and management itself mentions the competition. The moat is not clinically proven.
- −5Capital allocationFour capital raises in 2026 for a total of 820 m NOK, and the share count has risen from about 98 m to 291.5 m (about +200%). The 15/9 issue went to new investors at a 9% discount, and the repair issue to existing shareholders was cancelled on 23/9. The money is to be used, among other things, for in-licensing or acquisition of LNP and vector technology.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−20 of −35
- −12Multiples vs own historyEV is about NOK 2.4bn (market cap 3.12bn with 291.5m shares at 10.70 minus about 0.7bn in cash) vs 82-172m in 2022-2025, i.e. 14-29 times higher. P/B is about 4.5-5.7, but equity was negative in 2023-2025, so the old comparison with 'P/B about 1 historically' does not hold. The price rests solely on the platform's future.
- −8PeersEV is about USD 230m for a preclinical platform with 16 employees and no payments from partners. The acquisitions in circRNA (Lilly/ORNA up to USD 2.4bn, BMS/Orbital USD 1.5bn) show a high ceiling value, but those companies were further along, and the CEO himself says Circio lacks 12-24 months of validation. Against Nordic preclinical biotech companies (typically EV under NOK 0.5bn) the price is high.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−24 of −35
- −7DilutionNew directed issue of 16.9m shares at NOK 11.80 (15/9) after 23.1m shares at 10.80 in April and the exercise of 67.7m warrants at 8.25 in June. The share count is now 291.5m (registered 22/9), and the board also received RSUs 24/9. With expanded ambitions (CAR-T, acquisition of technology), more issues are likely before the clinic.
- −6ExecutionThe value rests on data in 2026–27: ESGCT 27–30 October (two posters and a talk), eye data, disease model data in the heart, circVec 5.0 and choice of delivery system for CAR-T. One disappointment could halve the share price.
- −3Customer behaviourThere are 23 research collaborations, but no upfront or milestone payments are mentioned. The collaboration with the top-5 pharmaceutical company (CNS) is in its second phase, and the results are confidential.
- −3Macro and regulationAAV gene therapy has had safety problems (liver damage, deaths) and regulatory headwinds, and biotech funding is cyclical. The September issue was priced at a discount, and the repair issue was cancelled because the share price fell below 11.80.
- −5Share price riskThe price has risen 1,521% over 52 weeks (range 0.59-15.70). It has fallen about 32% from the peak and trades below the issue price of 11.80. On average 7.7m shares trade per day (20 days).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+7 of +15
- +4Net cashCash of NOK 539m at 30/6 plus approx. 200m gross in September and no debt. Management maintains that the company is funded to 2030 despite higher ambitions.
- +2PartnershipFully funded CNS gene therapy collaboration with a top-5 pharmaceutical company, where the first work package is completed and the second part is under way.
- +1Insider buyingCEO Erik Digman Wiklund (incl. Digman AS) and COO Ola Melin together subscribed about 610,000 shares in the January issue, and primary insiders exercised warrants in June. No insider sales found. Board member Thomas Falck lent shares for the September issue (share loan, not a sale).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Rescored 4/10-2026. Preclinical platform without revenue; no analysts (forecast 404). Stockanalysis' 274.6 m shares and market cap of 2.94 bn are outdated: after the issue on 15/9 there are 291.5 m shares, so the market cap is about 3.12 bn NOK at 10.70. Cash after the issue (about 710 m) and quarterly burn are estimates. The share price on 2/10 was +2.7% (not +9.6%) according to stockanalysis. Largest owners and short interest have not been found. Index inclusion in OSEBX is a media expectation, not confirmed.
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