Rankings Grid & electrical equipment Ferroamp
Ferroamp
51
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Liquidity−10
- Margin−9
- Capital allocation−6
Strengths
- Insider buying+2
- Partner validation+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 1.63 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 190m
- Cash runway
- 1 months
- Cash / debt
- 2.6 / 39.8m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +0%
Bull case
Sales hold at 60m per quarter or more (240m+ a year) via Aira, Vattenfall and Elvy, EBITDA turns positive in H2 2026, and inventory is released so an issue is avoided. With 300–400m in revenue in 2027–28 and a 5–8% EBIT margin, EV/Sales of 1.5–2 can give a market cap of SEK 500–750m, i.e. 2–3x.
Bear case
Q2 was a one-off wave (inventory stocking at partners), sales fall back, and liquidity forces an issue at 1–1.5 kr with 50–100% dilution. A partner like Aira may run into trouble, and new inventory write-downs as in 2024 may come.
Catalysts
- 2026-11-06 (stockanalysis estimates 2026-11-09)Q3 report: does sales hold the Q2 level (60m), and is EBITDA positive per month?binary stockanalysis.com
- H2 2026The company's target of positive EBITDA per monthbinary inderes.fi
- 2026–2027Rollout via Aira in Germany, Italy and the UK and via Vattenfall and Elvy in Swedengradual marketscreener.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – revenue is genuinely growing, the equity ratio is 62%, and there are professional owners (Nordea, AP2, Tequity), but cash is almost empty, and the credit lines are drawn
Next financingCash of SEK 2.6m (30/6) lasts under a month at the H1 average spending of 14.2m per quarter (Q1 -32.6m, Q2 +4.2m). The credit facilities from SEB and Almi (35m) appear to be drawn. The company depends on reaching positive monthly EBITDA in H2 2026 and releasing inventory; otherwise an issue in Q4 2026-Q1 2027 is likely.
Warrants & convertiblesNo convertibles found. The latest dilution was the rights issue in May-June 2025 (SEK 76m, 85% subscribed, 57m), which almost doubled the share count (stockanalysis: +92% year on year measured on average). Employee programmes have not been reviewed.
Insiders, last 12 monthsCFO William Ryan bought shares 1/9-2026 (amount not found). No insider sales found. Earlier: board member Claes Mellgren 2.31m shares (28/5-2025) and chairman Nicolas Hassbjer 1.52m shares (2/6-2025), both in the issue.
Largest ownersTequity AB 17.74% (19.14m shares), Nordea Fonder 14.94% (16.12m), Andra AP-fonden 7.04% (7.6m). Insiders about 17%, institutions about 38%.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes, approx. DKK 190m. (2) Hot theme: partial, energy optimization and power tariffs, but solar is out of favor. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes, Q3 and the target of positive EBITDA. (4) Major partner: partial, Vattenfall and Aira, but no capital partner. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no, less than a quarter of cash. (6) Price near the bottom: no, +32% in a year, but −95% from 2021.
Why this asymmetryThere is a real growth turnaround with known partners and insider purchases, so the upside on positive EBITDA is 2–3x. But the thin liquidity makes a dilutive issue likely, and the stock has already risen, so the downside on a disappointing Q3 is large.
How the score is built
From 100 to 51, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 2.97 SEK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- +69%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−21 of −30
- −9MarginThe gross margin is only 20–22%, low for energy technology, and the operating margin is −21% TTM (−SEK 32m on revenue of 152m). EBITDA in Q2 2026 was −8.5m despite a tripling of sales. The company has had losses every year, and in 2024 inventory write-downs gave a negative gross result of −83m.
- −2Quality of growthQ2 2026 revenue was SEK 60m vs 18.5m the year before, driven by partners such as Aira, Elvy and Vattenfall. It is, however, a recovery from a collapse: revenue was SEK 355m in 2023 and fell to 95m in 2025, and TTM (152m) is still under half of the peak. There was a provision of SEK 3m for a customer bankruptcy in Q2.
- −4MoatFerroamp's DC nanogrid and EnergyHub is a niche, but the company competes with large producers of inverters and batteries (Huawei, Sungrow, SolarEdge, Enphase) in a market with price pressure. A gross margin of about 22% shows limited pricing power.
- −6Capital allocationThe share count has risen from about 13m (2021) to 107.9m through rights issues of about SEK 220m (2023) and 76m (2025, only 85% subscribed, 57m). The price has fallen from DKK 48 (2021) to 2.5, and a large part of the capital was lost on inventory and losses in 2023–24.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−8 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyEV/Sales is 2.0 vs 0.50 (2023), 1.38 (2024) and 2.14 (2025), and P/B is 1.44 vs 0.99-1.20 in the last three years. The stock trades in the upper part of the last years' range, even though the price has fallen from the top.
- −5Peers and absolute levelEV of about SEK 309m for a hardware business with a 22% gross margin, losses and negative FCF (-30m TTM) is not cheap. Hardware with such a low gross margin typically trades below 1x sales before it makes money.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−18 of −35
- −10LiquidityCash was SEK 2.6m at 30/6 vs debt of 39.8m (credit facilities of 35m from SEB and Almi from February 2026 appear to be drawn). Operating cash flow was -28m in H1, and Altman Z is -1.25. If the target of positive monthly EBITDA in H2 2026 is not reached, a new issue is likely.
- −4Inventory and executionInventory is large relative to sales (inventory turnover 1.2), and in 2024 inventory write-downs cost a gross loss of -83m. Production must now be scaled with new products (ESO 15 kW), which ties up working capital in strained liquidity.
- −4Customer and market riskGrowth rests on a few partners (Aira, Elvy, Vattenfall). Aira is itself a young heat pump company that depends on capital, and the company provisioned DKK 3m for a customer bankruptcy in Q2. The Swedish solar market fell sharply in 2024.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2Insider buyingCFO William Ryan bought shares 1/9-2026. Board member Claes Mellgren (2.3m shares) and chairman Nicolas Hassbjer (1.5m shares) bought in May–June 2025. Insiders own about 17%, and the largest owner Tequity has 17.7%.
- +2Partner validationCollaborates with Vattenfall (December 2025), Elvy (technology partner, August 2025) and Aira (order of about SEK 25m, deliveries from 2026 to Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom). SEB and Almi provided 35m in financing in February 2026.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
No analysts at stockanalysis (forecast 404). Market cap checked: 107.9m shares (confirmed via Tequity's 19.14m shares = 17.74%) × SEK 2.47 = SEK 266m ≈ DKK 176m, c. 7% below Nordnet's DKK 190m. No new shares found since the rights issue in May-June 2025, so the difference is probably price/currency in Nordnet's figures. Undrawn credit lines at 30/6 not disclosed; debt of 39.8m suggests the facilities from SEB and Almi (35m) are largely drawn, so runway is an estimate. Whether Q3 revenue held the Q2 level is unknown. cyclical = false, because sales follow power tariffs and partner agreements more than energy prices, but the solar market fluctuates.
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