Rankings Transport & logistics Frontline
Frontline
51
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−10
- Quality of growth−8
- Macro−8
Strengths
- Dividend+3
- Secured earnings and lower funding costs+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 51, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 52.08 USD
- Median analyst target
- 57.50 USD
- Upside to median
- +10.4%
- Analysts
- 4
- Target range
- 44.00 – 70.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +108%
- P/E (trailing)
- 7.8
- Forward P/E
- 8.5
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−21 of −30
- −8Quality of growthRevenue is up 49% and EPS to USD 6.68 (TTM) because of VLCC spot rates of USD 152,700/day in Q2 vs a cash breakeven of 23,800. On top come one-off gains of about USD 217–227m (Q1) and 54.7m (Q2) from ship sales. That is the freight cycle, not a stronger company.
- −3ROIC through the cycleROIC is 26% now, but only 0.1–15% in 2021–2025 (typically 11%). The record return is not a structural level.
- −4MoatCommodity shipping without pricing power: rates are set by the market. The advantage is only scale and a low breakeven (VLCC USD 23,800/day).
- −4Future segmentCrude shipping faces a long-term plateau in demand; analysts expect revenue −10.3% a year for the next three years.
- −2Capital allocationThe dividend is 174% of free cash flow (TTM), while newbuilds are being paid for at the same time (capex USD 664m).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−13 of −35
- −10Multiples vs own historyP/B 3.4 vs 0.9–2.0 in 2021–2025 and P/S 3.9 vs 1.5–2.5. A P/E of 7.2 rests on record rates and gains on sales.
- −3PeersMore expensive than DHT (P/B 2.6, EV/EBITDA 6.5, debt/equity 0.33), even though Frontline has more debt (P/B 3.4, EV/EBITDA 7.8, debt/equity 0.77).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−20 of −35
- −8MacroRates are driven by the Middle East conflict; the CEO himself says the endgame is hard to see. VLCC spot is 6× breakeven and could normalise fast.
- −5GovernanceFredriksen's Hemen controls about 36%, and Frontline is buying nine VLCC newbuilds from a Hemen company for USD 1.224bn (about 136m per ship) near the top of the cycle.
- −4DebtNet debt is USD 2.1bn. Debt/EBITDA is 1.5 now but was 3.4–4.1 in normal years (2022–2025), and the newbuilds are delivered and must be paid for in 2026–27.
- −3Share price riskThe share price is up 108% over 52 weeks; 7.6% of the shares are sold short.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +3DividendQuarterly dividend of USD 2.61 for Q2 plus a special dividend of USD 0.80 from selling two VLCCs for USD 270m.
- +2Secured earnings and lower funding costsTime charters at USD 120,000, 90,000 and 75,000/day for 1–3 years, and the interest margin has been cut by about 52 bp.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Record rates driven by the Middle East conflict; TTM earnings include about USD 275m of vessel sale gains; P/B 3.4 is the highest in at least 5 years
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