Rankings Grid & electrical equipment HydrogenPro
HydrogenPro
40
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−12
- Funding and liquidity−12
- Quality of growth−6
Strengths
- Strategic owners+2
- Insider buying+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 0.32 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 45m
- Cash runway
- 10 months
- Cash / debt
- 59.0 / 12.3m NOK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +60%
Bull case
A strategic investor (e.g. ANDRITZ or LONGi) or an acquirer comes in at a premium, the two projects of NOK 300m are contracted, and ReFuelEU requirements give orders in 2027–28. With an EV of only about NOK 19m and an order backlog of 262m, a fully funded plan could give a market cap of NOK 200–400m, i.e. 3–6x from 65m, if dilution is kept down.
Bear case
No strategic solution, new orders fail to materialize, and the cash runs out during 2027. Then comes an emergency issue at DKK 0.1–0.3 with over 100% dilution, or a restructuring in which shareholders lose almost everything. Green Hydrogen Systems' bankruptcy in 2025 shows that this happens in the sector.
Catalysts
- 13 Nov 2026Q3 report: cash, burn and status of the strategic reviewgradual stockanalysis.com
- no date from the companyResult of the strategic review (strategic investor, merger or sale)binary gasworld.com
- no date from the companyDefinitive contract on two projects in the pipeline worth about NOK 300m (pending regulatory approval and technical review)binary kalkinemedia.com
Risk of going to zerohigh – cash lasts under a year, revenue has fallen 85% since 2023, and the company has itself started a strategic review to secure liquidity
Next financingCash of NOK 59m (30/6) plus about 6m from July lasts about 10 months at underlying spending of about 18m per quarter (EBITDA -16m plus investments; Q1 was -45m). The strategic review (Clarksons) must find a solution; the CFO prefers a strategic investor. New issue or structural solution expected Q4 2026-Q1 2027.
Warrants & convertiblesNo warrants or convertibles found. The dilution has come through issues: directed issue of approx. NOK 15m in June 2026 and a subsequent issue of 12.76m shares at DKK 0.50 in July 2026 (approx. 42m new shares in total).
Insiders, last 12 monthsJuly 2026: CEO Jarle Dragvik subscribed for 400,000 shares, board member Hallvard Hasselknippe 200,000, and Marianne Mithassel Aamodt, Bjørn Hansen and Martin Thanem Holtet 100,000–200,000 each, all at DKK 0.50 in the subsequent issue. No insider selling found.
Largest ownersANDRITZ AG about 17% and LONGi Hydrogen about 13% (older register data, diluted since), Richard Espeseth (founder), and nominee accounts at Clearstream and UniCredit Bank Austria. Insiders about 22% and institutions about 21% (stockanalysis).
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes, approx. DKK 45m. (2) Hot theme: no, green hydrogen is out of favor with investors. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial, strategic review and two project contracts, but without dates. (4) Major partner: yes, ANDRITZ and LONGi are both owners and partners. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no, approx. 10 months. (6) Price near the bottom: yes, −83 to −85% in a year and EV/Sales 0.22.
Why this asymmetryEV is almost zero, and there are industrial owners who can rescue the company, so a strategic solution could give a large price reaction. But cash is almost used up, the market is weak, and the most likely route is another issue at a low price. The upside requires a rescue that is not certain.
How the score is built
From 100 to 40, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.41 NOK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −88%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−28 of −30
- −12MarginOperating margin is −197% TTM: an operating loss of NOK 165m on revenue of 84m. There has been an operating loss every year since the IPO (−NOK 60 to −227m a year), and net result in Q2 2026 was −NOK 51m incl. a write-down of 32m on the Tianjin factory.
- −6Quality of growthRevenue has fallen from NOK 568m (2023) to 196m (2024), 87m (2025) and 84m TTM (-52%). Q2 2026 gave only 15m, almost all from the SALCOS project. Management itself says 2026 is a slower market than expected with few investment decisions.
- −4MoatAlkaline electrolysis is a technology where Chinese producers compete hard on price. HydrogenPro has now outsourced stack production to LONGi and itself calls it 'more of a commodity'; what remains is the electrode technology in Denmark (Gen4 with 20% lower voltage than Gen2). It is a narrow moat.
- −6Capital allocationIn December 2024 NOK 70m was raised at NOK 5.50 per share; in June-July 2026 the company raised 21m at NOK 0.50 (−91%). The factory in Tianjin, which was invested in, has been mothballed and written down by 32m. The capital has been used without creating value for shareholders.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−5 of −35
- −2Multiples vs own historyEV/Sales is 0.22 vs 0.89 (2025), 0.98 (2024), 1.64 (2023) and over 20 (2021-22), and P/B is 0.41 vs 0.76-4.25. It is historically low, but equity and cash are shrinking quickly (net cash 46m vs 169m at the end of 2024).
- −3Peers and absolute levelEV is only about NOK 19m, but FCF yield is -196% and Altman Z -4.5. The low price reflects that cash is running out; it is not a mispricing. Hydrogen peers such as Nel and Green Hydrogen Systems (bankrupt 2025) show that loss-making electrolyzers are priced on survival risk.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−24 of −35
- −12Funding and liquidityCash was NOK 59m at 30/6 (about 65m with the July issue) vs underlying spending of 15-45m per quarter. In May the board started a strategic review with Clarksons to secure liquidity, and it is not concluded. New capital or a sale of the company within 6-12 months is almost certain.
- −6The green hydrogen marketFew investment decisions in 2026, and the order backlog of 262 m NOK is essentially stationary. The pipeline of about 300 m for two projects awaits regulatory approval and technical review, so new orders are uncertain in timing and scope.
- −3Customer concentrationRevenue and the order backlog rest on a few projects: SALCOS (Salzgitter, via ANDRITZ) and ACES Delta in Utah. Delays or problems in one project hit directly.
- −3Dependence on LONGiLONGi is both major shareholder, supplier of the stack production and itself a producer of electrolyzers. That creates a conflict of interest and a dependence on a Chinese partner, which may also be a competitor and may hit sales in the US (tariffs and rules).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Strategic ownersANDRITZ and LONGi Hydrogen are among the largest owners and are also commercial partners (installation and production). It is an industrial validation of the technology.
- +1Insider buyingCEO Jarle Dragvik (400,000 shares), board member Hallvard Hasselknippe (200,000) and other senior people subscribed shares in the subsequent issue at NOK 0.50 in July 2026. The amounts are small (CEO about NOK 0.2m).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
No analysts at stockanalysis (forecast 404). Market cap checked: 138.29m shares × NOK 0.468 = NOK 64.7m ≈ DKK 44m, in line with Nordnet's DKK 45m. The share count has risen from c. 96m (30/6) to 138.3m after the issues at NOK 0.50 in June-July 2026, so stockanalysis' 'Shares change +28%' understates the dilution (really c. +60% over 12 months). The strategic review is not concluded. The owner list is from older register data and has been diluted since. Quarterly burn fluctuates a lot (FCF −45m in Q1, −11m in Q2 helped by working capital), so runway is an estimate. Industry: closest choice is Grid & electrical equipment (like Nel).
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