Rankings Defence, aerospace & space Latecoere
Latecoere
40
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−12
- Debt and refinancing−12
- Quality of growth−6
Strengths
- Broad customer base+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 0.08 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 1,035m
- Cash runway
- 24 months
- Cash / debt
- 45.6 / 242.6m EUR
- Dilution, 12 months
- +1%
Bull case
Airbus and Boeing raise rates, aerostructures go from −10.8% to +5% EBITDA margin, and the group reaches an 8% EBITDA margin on EUR 900m (about 70m). With an EV/EBITDA of 6, EV becomes 420m and equity about 260m, i.e. just under a doubling. A 3–10x requires debt to be paid down significantly – unlikely within 2-3 years.
Bear case
Margins stay near zero, the PGE agreement falls through or requires new equity, and Searchlight carries out another capital increase or buyout at a price far below now. Equity is only 51.5m vs 162.6m in net debt, so a new loss of 30-50m could halve the stock or more.
Catalysts
- 2026-10 (end)Definitive agreement to extend the PGE loan to 31/12-2029 with new covenants - removes the nearest refinancing risk if it landsbinary webdisclosure.fr
- Q1 2027 (March)Annual accounts 2026: shows whether the aerostructure loss has turned and whether FCF holdsgradual zonebourse.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – approx. 24 months of runway and debt extension in process, but thin equity, almost zero EBITDA and a controlling fund that has previously diluted the minority heavily.
Next financingCash of EUR 45.6m at 30/6-2026 and FCF of −11.1m in H1 (approx. 5.6m per quarter) give approx. 24 months of runway. The PGE loan is extended to 31/12-2029 with new covenants (agreement in principle, final at end of October 2026), and the asset-based facility at BZ Private Credit has been expanded (July 2026). No new issue announced, but with Searchlight as controlling owner and equity of only 51.5m, a new capital increase would hit minorities hard if margins do not turn. No ongoing sauvegarde procedure.
Warrants & convertiblesNot mapped in detail. The 2023 restructuring included warrants and an RMF obligation (retour à meilleure fortune) of EUR 7.2m to the creditors. No convertible loans found.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNot examined in detail; no insider purchases found in the sources read. Insiders own 0.01% according to stockanalysis (Searchlight is not counted as an insider there).
Largest ownersSearchlight Capital Partners (controlling, about 86% derived from a free float of 1.80bn of 12.73bn shares – not verified); institutions 0.03%; the rest small shareholders.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: partial – approx. EUR 139m, but free float only approx. 20m. (2) Hot theme: partial – aviation/defense is popular, but Latécoère is a squeezed subcontractor. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – PGE agreement at the end of October 2026 and annual report in March 2027. (4) Major partner: yes – Airbus and Boeing as customers (not technology validation, but a customer relationship). (5) Funding for 2+ years: partial – approx. 24 months of runway and PGE extended to 2029, but not final. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −17% in a year and approx. −93% since the end of 2021 (0.16 → 0.0109 EUR per stockanalysis); RSI 20.
Why this asymmetryGrowing revenue at Airbus/Boeing and an EV/Sales of 0.42 give geared upside if aerostructures becomes profitable. But debt is large relative to equity, Searchlight decides, and the history shows that the minority pays at every crisis.
How the score is built
From 100 to 40, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.01 EUR
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −14%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−25 of −30
- −12MarginEBITDA fell to EUR 3.7m in H1 2026 (0.8% margin) from 22.3m (5.9%), and net result became −23.5m. TTM operating margin −2.1% and net margin −6.0%; the company has only made a profit in one of the last six years (2023, due to debt forgiveness).
- −6Quality of growthOrganic growth of 19% in H1 2026 (EUR 431.6m), but the growth is unprofitable: Aerostructures (237m) had EBITDA of −25.6m (−10.8%) because ramp-up, supply chain and inflation eat the margin. Only cable systems (11.5%) and services (24.1%) make money.
- −3MoatTier-1 supplier with a weak negotiating position against Airbus and Boeing, which press prices; inflation and currency cannot be passed on. Gross margin has fallen from 41.0% (2024) to 36.9% TTM.
- −4Capital allocationRepeated capital injections and debt restructurings: the share count rose about 3,100% in 2023 and 690% in 2024 (stockanalysis' dilution measure), plus a 1:10 reverse split in 2023. Old shareholder value has largely been wiped out.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−6 of −35
- −6Multiples vs own historyEV/Sales 0.42 vs 0.50-1.55 in 2021-2025 and P/S 0.18 (lowest level), but no profit or FCF to price on, and P/B 2.79 vs 1.2-2.3 on thin equity (51.5m). EV (about 340m) consists of 60% debt, so the stock is a leveraged option on margin improvement.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−24 of −35
- −12Debt and refinancingNet debt EUR 162.6m (excl. RMF 7.2m) vs almost zero EBITDA; cash 45.6m. The PGE debt (state-guaranteed loan) has only been agreed extended to 31/12-2029 'in principle' with new covenants, and the agreement must be final by the end of October 2026. Altman Z 1.38.
- −5Lowered guidanceThe 2026 outlook has been lowered from rising EBITDA to lower underlying earnings than in 2025 and a slight decline in operating FCF, citing the Iran crisis, oil price and inflation.
- −4Main shareholder and liquiditySearchlight controls the company (free float about 14%), so minority shareholders have no influence and risk a future buyout or issue solution on the fund's terms. Daily turnover only about EUR 37,000.
- −3Customer concentration and supply chainEarnings depend on Airbus' and Boeing's production rates and on a strained supply chain; management cites persistent logistics and delivery delays as the main reason for the margin decline.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+1 of +15
- +1Broad customer baseCustomers across civil and military aviation: Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Dassault Aviation, Embraer, Lockheed Martin and Thales.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3 – Europe). French subcontractor of aircraft structures (doors, fuselage sections) and cable systems for Airbus, Boeing, Embraer, Dassault and others. Controlled by the private equity fund Searchlight after the 2023 restructuring (debt write-down of EUR 183m, capital increase of at least EUR 100m and 1:10 reverse split). Free float only about 14% according to stockanalysis (1.80bn of 12.73bn shares); Searchlight's precise stake is not verified. Market cap calculated myself: 12.73bn shares × EUR 0.0109 = about EUR 139m (about DKK 1,035m; Nordnet shows 1,133). Figures from the H1 2026 report (22/9-2026) and stockanalysis. Half-year reporting, no analyst coverage on stockanalysis. Warrants from the 2023 plan and the RMF obligation (7.2m) have not been mapped in detail; insider trades not investigated.
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