Rankings Grid & electrical equipment Minesto
Minesto
31
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Funding and liquidity−10
- Dilution−8
Strengths
- Public support and validation+2
- Technical milestone+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 0.76 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 201m
- Cash runway
- 8 months
- Cash / debt
- 38.4 / 0.5m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +22%
Bull case
The EIB and Faroese/Icelandic customers finance a first Dragon Farm of 10+ MW in 2027, and Minesto gets its first commercial order of, say, SEK 300–500m. The market could then price the company as a 'first mover' in tidal power – a market value of SEK 1–1.5bn (3–5x) requires the funding to come without heavy dilution, though.
Bear case
No order before the cash runs out around year-end; a new share issue far below SEK 1.15, with low take-up as in 2025, dilutes heavily. On top, the SEK 570m of capitalised development costs could be written down. The price could halve again, as after the 2025 share issue (SEK 0.74 at end-2025).
Catalysts
- 22 Oct 2026Q3 2026 interim report: cash, burn and any financing plangradual stockanalysis.com
- Q4 2026 – Q1 2027Capital raise necessary (amount and form unknown)binary inderes.fi
- 2026–2027The EIB-backed investment case for the first tidal farm (Dragon Farm) in the Faroe Islands – a funded farm would be the first commercial breakthroughbinary mfn.se
Risk of going to zeromedium-high – the company has survived many rounds, and the market cap (SEK 305m) makes an issue possible, but there is no revenue, cash lasts under a year, and each round has been more expensive for shareholders.
Next financingThe cash at 30/6 (SEK 38.4m) lasts about 8 months from mid-year, i.e. to around February 2027. The company has not announced a financing plan; a new share issue, loan or project support should be expected around the Q3 report (22/10/2026) or in Q1 2027 at the latest. The last share issue was only 65% subscribed incl. the guarantee, so the next round will probably be expensive.
Warrants & convertiblesNo outstanding TO series found (TO4 was exercised in March 2025 at SEK 1.54). The LTI 2025 incentive programme started in December 2025; number and strike not examined. No convertibles found; Fenja Capital's SEK 22m loan was offset against shares in the 2025 share issue.
Insiders, last 12 months16/12/2025: a major shareholder, the CEO and senior employees increased their holdings at the close of LTI 2021 (amounts not found). No open-market purchases or sales found in 2026. Insiders own about 0.15% according to stockanalysis.
Largest ownersNot examined. Institutions own about 32% according to stockanalysis; the guarantors in the 2025 issue received about 19.5m shares.
Circio check(1) Small market value: yes – DKK 201m. (2) Hot theme: partly – renewable energy, but tidal power is a niche without an investor wave. (3) Upcoming milestones: partly – the Dragon Farm investment case and orders, but no dated binary event. (4) Large partner: partly – EIB advisory and the Swedish Energy Agency, but no industrial partner with ownership or an order. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – about 8 months of runway from 30/6. (6) Price near the bottom: partly – −38% in a year, but up from SEK 0.74 at the end of 2025.
Why this asymmetryThe technology now works in operation, and a funded farm could change the picture, but there is no order, less than a year of cash and a history of expensive share issues. The next dilution is almost certain, before any upside arrives.
How the score is built
From 100 to 31, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.91 SEK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −36%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−27 of −30
- −10MarginNet revenue of SEK 0 in H1 2026 and in all of 2025; operating result −SEK 15.4m in H1 and −SEK 34.7m in 2025. Loss every year 2021–2026.
- −7Quality of growthAfter many years of development there is still no commercial sales revenue: the 'revenue' of SEK 11.3m in H1 is capitalised own development costs, not sales. No binding power-plant order has been announced – only customer dialogues and cooperation agreements (Haf-Afl in Iceland, EIB advisory).
- −6Capital allocationShare issues of SEK 143m (2021), 120m (2023), 100m (2024) and 99m (2025); the share price has fallen from SEK 18.07 at the end of 2021 to about 1.15. The share count has risen from 137.7m to 260.1m since 2021 without creating revenue.
- −4MoatThe technology (underwater kite 'Dragon') is patented and now produces electricity for the grid in the Faroe Islands, but there is no documented commercial electricity price (LCOE) or pricing power; tidal power is a small niche where projects depend on public support.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 3 findings−13 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyP/B 0.50 vs 2.5–4.8 in 2021–2023 and 0.30–0.81 in 2024–2025. Low, but 93% of equity (SEK 570m of 615m) is capitalised development costs, so book value is a weak anchor.
- −7FCF yieldReal free cash flow incl. capitalised development: operating cash flow −4.3m + investment in intangible assets −26.4m = about SEK −31m TTM, about −10% of market cap (SEK 305m). Stockanalysis' FCF of −4.4m understates the burn.
- −3No earnings anchorEV of about SEK 267m for a company without revenue and without analyst coverage (no forecast page); there is no sales or earnings multiple to measure the price against.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−26 of −35
- −10Funding and liquidityCash of SEK 38.4m at 30/6/2026 after a cash flow of −SEK 29.3m in H1. With about SEK 15m per quarter, cash lasts to around the turn of 2026/27 – new capital is needed within a few months.
- −8DilutionThe October 2025 rights issue of SEK 152m at SEK 1.85 was only 41% subscribed with rights; guarantors took 24%, and SEK 99m came in (of which about 22m was offset against Fenja Capital's loan). The share count rose 22% in a year, and the price is now about 38% below the issue price.
- −4Accounts and impairment riskCapitalised development costs of SEK 569.7m – almost double the market value. Without commercial orders there is a risk of large write-downs, and the result looks better than cash flow because development is capitalised.
- −4Commercial executionThe company reorganised (12/8/2026) to strengthen the customer offering, but neither a first commercial order nor financing of a 'Dragon Farm' is in place; the timeline depends on support programmes and customers' project decisions.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Public support and validationThe EIB is supporting the development of the investment case for 'the EU's first tidal farm' (27/1/2026), and grants of SEK 3.6m were received in H1 2026 (0.7m a year earlier).
- +1Technical milestoneDragon 4 with a new Power Take-Off system set a production record in the Faroe Islands in summer 2026 with stable delivery to the national grid over several months.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3). Trades on First North Stockholm. The half-year report PDF is encrypted and could not be read; cash, result and cash flow are from the press release and stockanalysis. Quarterly burn is calculated as half of the H1 cash flow (−SEK 29.3m). No stockanalysis forecast page (404 = no analysts). Largest owners, warrants in LTI 2025 and any loan agreements after 30/6 are not examined. Tidal power does not fit the list cleanly; chose 'Power grid & electrical equipment' (the company sells power plant equipment), as for Nel and Metacon.
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