Rankings Commodities & uranium GRANGEX
GRANGEX
31
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Financing and maturities−16
- Margin−10
- Dilution−9
Strengths
- Validation from a large partner+3
How the score is built
From 100 to 31, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 15.82 SEK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −64%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−23 of −30
- −10MarginOperating loss of SEK 82m on revenue of only SEK 22m over the last 12 months (operating margin −372%) and a net loss of SEK 261m; Q2 alone gave an operating loss of SEK 25.6m vs 5.6m a year earlier.
- −4Quality of growthRevenue (port/tugboat services and small sales) fell 25% to SEK 22m; H1 2026 gave SEK 11.4m vs 13.6m the year before. There is no mine production until Sydvaranger is financed and restarted.
- −3Moat and scaleThe product (70% Fe magnetite concentrate for direct reduction) is a niche with demand from green steel production, but the company is a small price taker with no operations; Sydvaranger has been closed before.
- −6Capital allocationThe acquisition of Sydvaranger was financed with debt: equity is negative (−SEK 242m), and the bridge to project financing is costly – the Orion extension cost SEK 3.6m in new shares, and the Exelity loan has a fee of SEK 2.16m and a pledge in Dannemora Iron.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−12 of −35
- −6Multiples vs own historyP/S 20 and EV/Sales 76 vs P/S 5.3–10.8 in 2021–2024 (28 in 2025). P/B is negative. The price rests solely on project value, not on operations.
- −6Price vs project value and peersEV of SEK 1.68bn corresponds to about 0.11x the DFS's pre-tax NPV8 (USD 1,552m ≈ SEK 15.5bn) - cheap on paper, but typical for unfunded developers, and the NPV falls sharply after tax and dilution. The producer Champion Iron trades at EV/EBITDA 6.1.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−31 of −35
- −16Financing and maturitiesThe final investment decision (FID) has been postponed from Q1 to Q3 2026, and Q3 has passed without FID. The Orion loan of USD 22.5m falls due on 30/11-2026 and the Exelity loan of SEK 72m on 31/12-2026; cash was SEK 53m, short-term debt SEK 1,157m, and the auditor has a going concern note.
- −9DilutionThe restart requires about 300 m USD (≈3.0 bn SEK) in a mix of equity and loans – almost 7 times the market cap. Exelity can convert at the same price as other investors in the coming issue.
- −6Project and commodity riskThe first phase costs 193.6 m USD in capex, and the operating cost is 56.1 USD/t over the life of the mine; the project is sensitive to the iron ore premium for DR grade, construction delays and the restart of a mine that was previously closed.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+3 of +15
- +3Validation from a large partnerCommercial partnership (offtake) with Anglo American entered 23/12-2025, plus supplier agreements with Metso (process equipment) and E. Hartikainen (mining).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Swedish mine developer on First North Premier (Stockholm) with the Sydvaranger iron ore mine in Kirkenes (Norway) and Dannemora (Sweden). Market cap calculated myself: 14.14m shares × SEK 30.9 = SEK 437m ≈ DKK 289m; Nordnet's DKK 274m rests on an outdated share count (before the set-off issues to Orion in 2026). No analyst coverage (forecast 404). The debt item of SEK 1,301m is stockanalysis' figure; only the Orion loan (USD 22.5m) and the Exelity loan (SEK 72m) are confirmed in the company's announcements – the rest of the debt is not broken down by lender in this analysis. Short register (FI) and the largest owners not checked. P/NAV rests on the DFS's pre-tax NPV.
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