Rankings Machinery & automation Realbotix
Realbotix
31
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Valuation vs history and peers−20
- Margin−14
- Quality of growth−7
Strengths
- Net cash+1
- Insider ownership+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 1.32 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 291m
- Cash runway
- 9 months
- Cash / debt
- 7.4 / 0.9m CAD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +7%
Bull case
The Onconetix deal closes, and the merged Nasdaq company trades at a humanoid premium; the new robot line sells e.g. 300 units a year (approx. USD 6–10m revenue). If the market values the Nasdaq company at USD 150–250m, Realbotix Corp's 75–90% is worth USD 110–225m – approx. 2.5–5x today's approx. USD 44m (before holding discount and dilution).
Bear case
The deal drags on or falls through, Onconetix must reverse-split again, and robot sales keep sitting at a couple of hundred thousand USD a quarter. Cash is used up during 2027, and an issue at C$0.10–0.15 dilutes heavily; with negative gross margin and EV/Sales of 49 the price could fall 70–90%.
Catalysts
- Sep 2026Pilot with a large European telecom company on humanoids as hosts and presenters at events – must be converted into ordersgradual globenewswire.com
- H2 2026Closing of the sale of Realbotix LLC to Nasdaq-listed Onconetix (all-stock; Realbotix Corp gets 75-90% of the merged company, CEO Andrew Kiguel becomes CEO) - requires Onconetix shareholder approvalbinary stocktitan.net
- autumn 2026Launch of new robot line: tabletop model at about USD 12,000 and full size at about USD 55,000gradual investing.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – net cash and insiders with 37.5% give some time, but runway is under a year and the structure depends on a Nasdaq microcap with repeated reverse splits.
Next financingCash of approx. C$7.4m (USD 5.2m) at 30/6-2026 and spending of approx. C$2.4m per quarter (TTM FCF −USD 6.8m/4) give approx. 9 months of runway. The bridge loan from Onconetix (USD 2.5m paid out, up to 5m) covers the robotics subsidiary until closing; after that the merged Nasdaq company must raise capital. New issue or warrant-based financing likely within 6–12 months.
Warrants & convertibles14m warrants at C$0.75 expiring 24/10-2030 (from the placement in October 2025, out of the money). No convertibles found in the parent company; the subsidiary Realbotix LLC has a bridge loan from Onconetix of up to USD 5m. Options and older warrants not counted.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNone found (not systematically checked). Insiders own c. 37.5% according to stockanalysis.
Largest ownersNot examined in detail. Stockanalysis: insiders c. 37.5%, institutions c. 1.2%.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. DKK 291m. (2) Hot theme: yes – humanoid robots and AI. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – Onconetix closing and product launch in the autumn. (4) Major partner: no – only a pilot with an unnamed telecom company and a Nasdaq shell as buyer. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – approx. 9 months of runway. (6) Price near the bottom: partial – −48% in a year, but still 55x revenue.
Why this asymmetryThe theme is so hot that a Nasdaq listing can give a short-lived jump, but the company has almost no revenue, negative gross margin and a complicated holding structure via a Nasdaq company with repeated reverse splits. The upside requires the hype to hold; the downside is large with continued dilution.
How the score is built
From 100 to 31, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of . Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- –
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- –
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−27 of −30
- −14MarginRevenue only about USD 0.8m TTM with negative gross margin (-76%) and operating margin -795%; the operating loss has grown from -USD 3.1m in 2024 to -6.4m TTM.
- −7Quality of growthQ3 FY2026 revenue fell 40% to 354,000 USD; the old Intima business fell from 595,000 to 222,000, and the robots gave only 132,000 USD. TTM revenue is −64%.
- −6Moat23 employees in a humanoid field with billion-funded competitors; the product is social 'presentation' humanoids (12,000 and approx. USD 55,000 planned) with no documented technological lead or recurring revenue.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−20 of −35
- −20Valuation vs history and peersEV/Sales 48.7 and P/S 54.8 vs 15-36 in 2022-25; P/B 6.7 and P/TBV 7.2 for a company with negative gross margin. The price is a pure theme premium for humanoid robots.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−18 of −35
- −6Corporate structure and transaction riskThe core business Realbotix LLC is being sold for shares to Onconetix, a Nasdaq microcap that carried out reverse splits of 1:5 (March) and 1:10 (May 2026) to keep the USD 1 requirement. Realbotix Corp becomes a holding company with 75-90% of an illiquid Nasdaq company; closing requires approval from Onconetix shareholders and authorities.
- −5DilutionPlacement in October 2025 of 14m units at 0.50 C$ with one full warrant at 0.75 C$ (expiry 24/10-2030) – approx. +7% shares; at the current burn, money must be raised again within a year.
- −4Financing and runwayCash of USD 5.2m at 30/6-2026 vs FCF −USD 6.8m TTM – under a year of runway. The subsidiary depends on a bridge loan from Onconetix of up to USD 5m (2.5m paid out in September 2026).
- −3SentimentThe stock is −48% over 52 weeks, beta 2.75 and short ratio about 20 days on the OTC line.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+2 of +15
- +1Net cashNet cash approx. USD 4.6m (cash 5.2m, debt 0.6m) and current ratio 6.7 as of 30/6-2026.
- +1Insider ownershipInsiders own approx. 37.5% of the shares according to stockanalysis, so management has significant money of its own at stake.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3). No stockanalysis page for the TSX Venture listing (quote/tsxv/XBOT gave 404); figures are taken from the OTC line quote/otc/XBOTF, where financial figures are in USD – in the penny object they are converted to CAD at 1.418 (6.5833/4.6427). Path is set to the best guess for TSXV. Fiscal year October–September; latest quarter Q3 FY2026 (to 30/6-2026). Market cap about C$62.7m (219.9m shares x C$0.285) = about DKK 291m. Stockanalysis shows only +0.6% more shares in a year, but the placement of 14m units in October 2025 corresponds to about +7% – the latter is used. Daily turnover is the OTC line's volume; TSXV volume has not been checked. The company's own Q3 report could not be retrieved (timeout), so cash and burn are based on stockanalysis. Insider trades and largest owners have not been investigated systematically.
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