Rankings Machinery & automation Regal Rexnord
Regal Rexnord
74
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- ROIC and capital allocation−7
- Multiples vs own history and peers−5
- Debt−5
Strengths
- Order intake+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 74, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 160.93 USD
- Median analyst target
- 229.50 USD
- Upside to median
- +42.6%
- Analysts
- 11
- Target range
- 196.00 – 275.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +14%
- P/E (trailing)
- 33.1
- Forward P/E
- 13.8
- PEG
- 1.17
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−11 of −30
- −7ROIC and capital allocationROIC is 5.2% vs a WACC of 8.6% and has been 4.7–7.6% in 2021–25. The Altra acquisition ($4.87bn in cash in 2023, debt-funded) has not yet earned back its cost of capital.
- −2Quality of growthRevenue has gone from $6.25bn (2023) to 6.03bn, 5.94bn and 6.06bn TTM. In Q2 organic growth was +3.3%: AMC (data centres, aerospace) +15.6%, IPS +2.0% and PES −6.6%. The gross margin has risen from 33.8% to 37.5%, but the operating margin is stuck at about 11.8%.
- −2Quality of earnings2026 GAAP EPS is guided at $5.42–5.92 vs adjusted $10.35–10.85. The gap is amortisation of intangibles from the acquisitions plus recurring restructuring costs.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−5 of −35
- −5Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 13.4 vs 11.2–17.1 in 2021–25 (average 14.4); EV/EBITDA 12.1 vs 9.2–13.5 in 2022–25; P/FCF 22.4 vs 10.4–22.5 in 2022–25. The trailing GAAP P/E of 32 is distorted by amortisation. The previously cited '5-year average P/E 30.9' cannot be found: FY21–25 was 16–52. A reasonable price, but not cheap for a company with 3x leverage.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 7 findings−19 of −35
- −5DebtNet debt $4.17bn = 3.06x adjusted EBITDA incl. synergies (target below 3.0x in H2). GAAP debt/EBITDA is 3.75, interest cover 2.2x and Altman Z 1.99.
- −4Cash flow2026 FCF guidance cut by $50m to $600m. After six months FCF is $152m, and TTM is $466m vs $893m in 2025 (2025 was high; 2023–24 were $500–600m).
- −3GuidanceThe adjusted EPS midpoint ($10.60) is only held with $0.57 of IEEPA tariff refunds, i.e. 5% of guidance. Q2's adjusted EPS of $2.99 included $0.39 from the refund, and without it the PES margin was 16.2% rather than 20.5%.
- −2Customers are shiftingThe residential HVAC and pool markets are weak, and PES fell 6.6% organically in Q2.
- −1GovernanceCEO change: Aamir Paul has succeeded Louis Pinkham and says himself that he is spending his time learning the business.
- −2Insider tradingOutgoing CEO Pinkham ($4.8m), CFO Rehard ($1.3m) and IPS head Morton ($2.0m) have sold; about $8.1m in total in May–August 2026 and no purchases. The previously cited figure of $27.7m could not be confirmed.
- −2MacroTariffs and access to rare-earth magnets are a risk. Humanoid-robot revenue, which lifted the stock in February, is under 0.5% of sales.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2Order intakeDaily orders rose 8.8% in Q2, and AMC rose 17.1%, driven by data centres, discrete automation and defence/aerospace.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Net debt is $4.2bn (3.1x adjusted EBITDA), and ROIC is below the cost of capital. 5% of 2026 EPS guidance is a one-off tariff refund. Adjusted earnings are almost twice GAAP. The new CEO Aamir Paul is still getting to know the business. Price targets (58% upside) have not been cut after Q2.
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