Rankings Autos & parts Tesla
Tesla
9
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−35
- Margin−9
- Governance−7
Strengths
- Net cash+2
- Energy storage+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 9, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 403.82 USD
- Median analyst target
- 436.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +8.0%
- Analysts
- 44
- Target range
- 128.11 – 600.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −12%
- P/E (trailing)
- 443.7
- Forward P/E
- 188.9
- PEG
- 5.49
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−26 of −30
- −9MarginThe operating margin has fallen from 16.8% (2022) to 9.2%, 7.8% and 4.6% (2025) and 4.1% TTM, and in Q2 2026 it was only 1.4% (operating profit $0.4bn, −57%). The automotive gross margin excluding credits fell to 16.3%. Q2 net profit was lifted by a $1.0bn unrealised gain on SpaceX shares.
- −5ROICROIC 5.5% TTM vs 48.1% (2022), 24.2%, 12.9% and 6.1% (2025), and below a WACC of about 14%.
- −4Quality of growthDeliveries rose 25% in Q2 to 480,126 and revenue 26%, but operating profit fell 57%: growth is bought with price and margins. Regulatory credits have almost disappeared ($146m in Q2), and the valuation rests on robotaxi and Optimus.
- −3Future segmentOptimus is not yet in production ('first production lines are being installed'), and the robots are only used internally for data training; problems with hands and suppliers have been reported. According to the Q2 report robotaxi runs in seven cities, still at small scale.
- −5Capital allocationCapex rose 142% to $5.79bn in Q2 (AI compute, chip fabs, solar, Optimus), and FCF was −$1.09bn, the first negative quarter since 2024. Analysts expect FCF of −$10.8bn in 2026 for investments that do not yet earn a return.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−35 of −35
- −35Multiples vs own history and peersP/E 371 TTM vs 31–394 in 2021–25; forward P/E 190 vs 24–223 (median 126); P/FCF 245 vs 51–362; EV/EBITDA 129 vs 22–140. At the top of its own history and many times higher than other carmakers, with EPS growth of −35% TTM.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−16 of −35
- −6Customers are shiftingConsensus for Q3 deliveries is about 454–466 thousand (range 422–482 thousand) vs the record of about 497 thousand in Q3 2025, a 6–9% y/y decline, after the end of the US EV credit pulled sales forward last year.
- −7GovernanceThe pay package is worth up to about $1,000bn and could give Musk about 29% ownership. Tesla invested $2bn in Musk's xAI (January–March), which was immediately converted into SpaceX shares, and has $573m of trade with Musk's companies; Musk is on both sides of the deals.
- −2RegulationSales of CO2 credits have fallen from $2.76bn (2024) and 1.99bn (2025) to $146m in Q2 2026, after US fines on CO2 emissions were removed. It was almost pure profit.
- −1Insider tradingBoard members Kathleen Wilson-Thompson (about $30m), James Murdoch ($26.7m) and Kimbal Musk ($25.6m) and the CFO (about $5m) have sold over the last 12 months. Musk's $1bn purchase (12/9/2025) is just outside the window.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2
- +1Energy storageThe energy segment has grown from $6.0bn (2023) to 12.8bn TTM and grew 13% in Q2; it is a real second business line.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
P/E 371 and forward 190. Q2 profit ($1.1bn) was lifted by an unrealised $1.0bn gain on SpaceX shares and a tax item; the operating margin was 1.4%. Q3 deliveries are published on 2/10 (consensus about 454–466 thousand vs the record of about 497 thousand in Q3 2025), and results come 21/10. The old claim that the car business is shrinking does not hold for H1 2026 (Q2 deliveries +25%).
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