Rankings Construction & materials Risanamento
Risanamento
7
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Valuation vs substance−25
- Margin−14
- Business model and growth quality−8
Strengths
- No documented strengths.
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 1
- Price
- 0.33 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 598m
- Cash runway
- 7 months
- Cash / debt
- 9.0 / 3.2m EUR
- Dilution, 12 months
- +0%
Bull case
The step-in is completed, the obligations disappear, and the annual accounts show positive equity; Bizzi & Partners or the banks use the listed company as a platform for new projects (e.g. by contributing assets). It is the only path to a 3–10x, and no plan for it has been published.
Bear case
The fund's restructuring drags on again, the step-in falls through, and the negative equity forces a recapitalization at a fraction of the share price or liquidation. Even in a successful step-in the company is an almost empty shell with 10–15 m EUR in cash against a market cap of 80 m – a return to the March level of 0.013 EUR (−70%) is plausible.
Catalysts
- 5 Oct 2026Deadline for completing the restructuring of the Santa Giulia fund (Lendlease → Bizzi & Partners) – condition for the step-inbinary risanamentospa.com
- 20 Oct 2026Final deadline for completing the step-in (the fund takes over residual rights and remediation/infrastructure obligations)binary risanamentospa.com
- 10 Nov 2026The board is to approve the annual accounts for 2025 as well as Q1, H1 and Q3 2026 – the first full figures in over a year, incl. a going concern assessmentbinary risanamentospa.com
- 14 Dec 2026General meeting (2nd call 15/12) – possible capital increase or measures under art. 2446/2447binary risanamentospa.com
Risk of going to zerohigh – negative equity, an annual report that has not been filed, overdue debt items and a rescue agreement with repeated postponements; even a good outcome leaves a shell worth a fraction of market cap.
Next financingGroup liquidity was EUR 15.2m at 31/7-2026, but 6.2m is pledged, so about 9m is free; net cash has fallen from 29.1m (June 2025) to 12.0m (July 2026), about EUR 4m per quarter. The parent has net debt of 13.8m (intra-group). The rescue is the step-in agreement with Bizzi & Partners/the MSG Heartbeat fund (deadline 20/10-2026) within a certified restructuring plan (art. 56 CCII). If it fails, B&P's EUR 4m, which can be converted to shares by 31/3-2027, comes in; a larger recapitalization or liquidation (negative equity, art. 2447) is realistic. No reverse split announced.
Warrants & convertiblesNo warrants or convertibles found. Bizzi & Partners' support of up to EUR 4m can be settled with new shares by 31/3-2027 at the latest (at a price of 0.0445 this corresponds to approx. 90m shares, +5%; price not fixed).
Insiders, last 12 monthsNone found.
Largest ownersNot verified in Consob. Banks from the 2011 debt conversion (incl. Intesa Sanpaolo, which has historically owned just under half, plus UniCredit and Banco BPM). Stockanalysis: institutions 60%, free float c. 720m shares (40%).
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. DKK 600m, but large relative to the substance. (2) Hot theme: no – Italian building land. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – step-in (20/10) and earnings (10/11), but they mostly remove risk. (4) Major partner: partial – Bizzi & Partners and bank owners. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – approx. 7 months of free funds. (6) Price near the bottom: no – quadrupled since March.
Why this asymmetryThe price has quadrupled on a deal that mainly removes liabilities from a company with negative equity and almost no operations. The market cap is 6-7 times the net cash, and there is no plan for a new business. Worst conceivable risk/return in the group.
How the score is built
From 100 to 7, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.02 EUR
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −10%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−30 of −30
- −14MarginOperating margin −76% and negative gross margin TTM (to September 2025); losses every year 2020–2025 except 2023, when the northern plots in Milano Santa Giulia were sold for EUR 648m. Extra remediation costs of EUR 36m in 2025.
- −8Business model and growth qualityNo recurring income – only occasional land sales. With the step-in agreement the company transfers the last rights in Santa Giulia and the remediation obligations to the fund, so almost no operations remain.
- −5MoatNone: 29 employees, one project area, which is being handed over, and no new project pipeline published.
- −3Capital allocationA debt conversion in 2011 handed the company to the banks; since then equity has repeatedly been close to zero, and the 2020 loss of EUR 32.8m has only been 'sterilised' via COVID emergency rules.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−25 of −35
- −25Valuation vs substanceMarket cap approx. EUR 80m for a company with negative equity (P/B −107) and group net cash of only EUR 12m (of which EUR 6.2m is pledged). P/S 2.3 is based on outdated one-off revenue. The share price is up 114% in a year without new fundamental value – pure speculation on the step-in agreement.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−32 of −35
- −8Financial reporting and Consob oversightThe 2025 annual accounts have not yet been approved; the board has postponed them together with the Q1, H1 and Q3 2026 reports to 10/11-2026. Since 2017 the company has been subject to monthly disclosure obligations by Consob (art. 114).
- −8Negative equityThe board calls the equity situation 'critical'; group equity was negative (−EUR 0.8m) already 30/9-2025, and the step-in is necessary to restore the balance sheet and to be able to file accounts. Without it, Italian forced recapitalisation or liquidation (art. 2447) looms.
- −6Conditional and deferred rescue agreementThe step-in depends on a restructuring of the Santa Giulia fund between Lendlease and Bizzi & Partners and on an attested restructuring plan (art. 56 CCII); the deadlines have been moved from 30/9 to 5/10 and 20/10-2026. Lendlease itself sold its stake at a loss of about AUD 175m.
- −4DilutionBizzi & Partners provides up to EUR 4m of equity support if the restructuring of the fund is not completed 31/10-2026; Risanamento must by 31/3-2027 at the latest repay the amount or issue new shares to B&P. A proper recapitalisation may follow.
- −4Overdue debt items and liquidityAt 31/7-2026 the group has 7.4m EUR of overdue trade payables (due to delayed reimbursements from the Lendlease fund) and 1.2m EUR of overdue financial debt under renegotiation; net cash fell from 15.4 to 12.0m EUR in one month.
- −2Sentiment and speculationThe price has gone from EUR 0.013 (March 2026) to EUR 0.052 (September) - four times in half a year on a deal that mainly removes liabilities; 20-day turnover of 55m shares per day suggests short-term speculation.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 0 findings±0 of +15
- No findings recorded.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3 – Europe). Market cap checked myself: about 1,800m shares x EUR 0.0445 = about EUR 80m = about DKK 598m (Nordnet DKK 591m fits). Stockanalysis' financial figures end in September 2025, because the 2025 annual report has not yet been approved (postponed to 10/11-2026); the newest figures are the company's own monthly disclosures after a Consob order (as of 31/7-2026). Revenue and growth are therefore outdated and affected by one-off sales of building plots – revenue growth is set to 0 because the figure is meaningless. No analyst coverage (forecast gives 404). The ownership group (banks from the debt conversion) is not verified in the Consob register. Daily turnover is a 20-day average and inflated by the price rise in September. Industry: the closest choice is 'Construction & materials' (real estate development is not on the list).
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