Rankings Autos & parts Volvo Cars
Volvo Cars
55
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−7
- Withdrawn guidance−7
- Quality of growth−5
Strengths
- Cost savings+1
- Electrification+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 55, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 11.87 SEK
- Median analyst target
- 11.15 SEK
- Upside to median
- −6.1%
- Analysts
- 12
- Target range
- 9.00 – 15.20 SEK
- 52-week change
- −64%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 8.2
- PEG
- 0.53
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−20 of −30
- −7MarginOperating margin 3.6% TTM vs 6.7–6.9% in 2023–2024, and gross margin has fallen to 15.6% from 19.8%; Q2 2026 gave only a 1.1% EBIT margin (SEK 0.8bn on 77.7bn in revenue).
- −3ROICROIC 3.9% vs 15.9–19.7% in 2022–2024 and below the cost of capital (WACC about 6.6%).
- −5Quality of growthRevenue has fallen 13% TTM to SEK 331bn from 400bn in 2024; China has almost halved from 73.5 to 39.0bn SEK since 2023, and the USA has fallen from 75 to 60bn.
- −5Cash flow and capital allocationFree cash flow −10.0 bn SEK in Q1 and −5.2 bn in Q2 2026 (inventory build-up for the EX60); the net cash of 19.9 bn at the end of 2025 has turned into net debt of 4.9 bn, and no dividend is paid.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−5 of −35
- −2Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 7.6 is at the top of its own range (4.3–7.2 in 2023–2025) despite a record-low share price, because earnings are falling; EV/EBITDA 1.7 and P/B 0.28 are the lowest ever, but reflect an ROIC below the cost of capital.
- −3
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−12 of −35
- −7Withdrawn guidanceOn 2 Oct. 2026 – 15 days after the capital markets day with an 8% margin target and 13 new models – Volvo Cars announced that the 2026 targets for volume and cash flow will not be met; Q3 deliveries fell 10.7% due to the China crisis and a slow recovery in the US, with a significant negative effect on Q3 earnings and cash flow.
- −3Ownership structureGeely is clearly the largest shareholder, and free float is only about 597 m of 2.96 bn shares (about 20%); minority shareholders have little influence, and there are close transactions with the Geely group (e.g. exclusive distribution of Lynk & Co in Europe).
- −2ManagementKlaus Zellmer (Skoda) only takes over as CEO in autumn 2027, so the turnaround and product offensive must be carried out under interim management; Citi reiterated sell and warned of a negative EBIT margin in Q3.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+2 of +15
- +1Cost savingsThe SEK 5bn savings programme was delivered half a year ahead of plan, and headcount is about 3,000 lower than in H1 2025.
- +1ElectrificationThe share of EVs rose to 25% (21%) and the share of electrified cars to 52% (44%) in Q2 2026.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The B share (VOLCAR B), not the truck maker Volvo AB. Trailing P/E 4.5 is misleading: TTM net income of SEK 9.3bn rests on H2 2025, while Q2 2026 gave EBIT of only 0.8bn (margin 1.1%) and FY 2025 net income of 0.2bn. The forward estimates (forward P/E 7.6) are probably not fully updated after the company withdrew its volume and cash flow guidance on 2 Oct 2026. Cyclical = yes like the other car makers in the model (BMW, Mercedes, Stellantis). Q3 report 23 Oct 2026.
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