Rankings Defence, aerospace & space AeroVironment
AeroVironment
54
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−16
- Margin−9
- Capital allocation (BlueHalo)−9
Strengths
- Order book+2
- Customer breadth+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 54, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 123.08 USD
- Median analyst target
- 210.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +70.6%
- Analysts
- 24
- Target range
- 148.57 – 315.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −67%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 36.7
- PEG
- 1.08
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−21 of −30
- −9MarginOperating margin −0.6% and net margin −10.1% TTM. The gross margin has fallen from 39.4% (FY25) to 26.5% after BlueHalo, and FY27 guidance of GAAP net profit of $10–27m equals a 0.5–1.2% net margin. The loss is counted only here.
- −9Capital allocation (BlueHalo)BlueHalo was paid for in shares (share count +52% in a year). Shortly afterwards the Space Force stopped the SCAR order (BADGER antennas), and the Space unit took a goodwill write-down of about $240m. ROIC has fallen from 10.3% (FY24) to −0.3%.
- −3Quality of growthQ1 FY27 revenue rose only 6% to $480.5m, and $41.8m came from the ESAero acquisition, so organic growth was about zero. Switchblade fell $56.9m because of delayed orders, and Space/Directed Energy fell $18.1m.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−16 of −35
- −16Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 44 (adjusted) vs 32.6–65.5 in FY22–26; EV/EBITDA 35 vs 40–52; EV/sales 3.9 vs 4.8–6.2. At the low end of its own history, but about double the large defence companies. On GAAP guidance (EPS $0.21–0.53) the P/E is over 250, and P/TBV is 7.3.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−17 of −35
- −5Cash flow and debtFCF has been negative every year in FY22–26 (−$141m in FY26) and is −$25m TTM, while capex is up at 11% of revenue. Long-term debt is $730m (convertible bonds to 2030) vs $278m of cash.
- −4Customer concentrationThe US government accounted for $386.8m of $480.5m (80%) of revenue in Q1 FY27 and fell 2% y/y. Pentagon budget and order timing feeds straight through.
- −4ExecutionSwitchblade revenue fell $56.9m in Q1 because of delayed orders. The stock is −51% over 52 weeks, and analysts cut their targets after the report despite an EPS beat.
- −3LawsuitsA class action alleging misleading statements, because the company allegedly concealed the risk of competition for the SCAR work, and Berger Montague is investigating the board for breach of fiduciary duty.
- −1Insider tradingOnly small sales (board member Stephen Page sold 250 shares for about $48,000 in August); no insider buying despite the 51% fall.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2Order bookRecord funded backlog of $1.5bn (+37%) and book-to-bill of 1.4 in Q1; visibility on 86% of FY27 revenue guidance.
- +2Customer breadthRevenue from customers other than the US government rose from $59.3m to 93.7m (+58%) in Q1, and the adjusted product gross margin rose from 36% to 40%.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The SCAR programme has been stopped (impairment of about $240m on the Space unit), and the BlueHalo acquisition diluted shareholders by +52%. FY27 guidance gives only $10–27m of GAAP profit on $2.1–2.2bn of revenue; adjusted EPS of $3.02–3.34 excludes, among other things, amortisation of acquired intangibles. There is a class action over SCAR. Analysts cut price targets after Q1 (BofA $225→185, Goldman $326→285). Competition from new drone makers has not been examined.
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