Rankings Pharma & medtech Alligator Bioscience
Alligator Bioscience
28
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Dilution−10
- Quality of growth / segment of the future−8
Strengths
- Partner validation+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 2
- Price
- 0.01 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 47m
- Cash runway
- 8 months
- Cash / debt
- 40.0 / 30.0m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +8,000%
Bull case
Henlius gets positive phase 3 data and approval for HLX22 in China and globally; AbClon receives large milestones and royalties, and Alligator's 35% may be worth several hundred SEK million. At the same time mitazalimab is sold for a cash amount. From a diluted value of about SEK 130m this could give 3–5x, but it takes years.
Bear case
No buyer for mitazalimab, the cash runs out in 2027, and TO15/TO16 are exercised at SEK 0.01. The Fenja loan matures June 2027, and a new issue at an even lower price or a restructuring dilutes the current shareholders almost to zero. The HLX22 value may be sold cheaply to survive.
Catalysts
- 22 Oct 2026Q3 report: first figures after issue and cutbacks (cash and burn)gradual stockanalysis.com
- 2026 (no date)Sale or licence of mitazalimab, which the company will try in 2026binary nordiclifescience.org
- 8–22 Jan 2027Exercise of TO15 (up to 1.47bn shares, max. SEK 29.4m)binary inderes.fi
- no date from HenliusData from Henlius' global phase 3 with HLX22 in first-line HER2+ gastric cancer (milestones to AbClon, of which Alligator gets 35%)binary biospace.com
Risk of going to zerohigh – five issues and a reverse split in a year and a half, the issue flopped to 17%, cash only lasts into 2027, and the stock effectively trades at the minimum price of DKK 0.01–0.02.
Next financingCash at 30/6 was SEK 16.6m. The issue raised 58.8m gross, and after the bridge loan (19m), underwriting commission (7.7m) and other costs, cash is estimated at about SEK 40m (estimate; Q3 figures 22/10). With Q2 spending of 16m/quarter that lasts about 8 months, longer if the cost cuts work. TO15 in January 2027 at 70% of VWAP is the next capital injection (max 29m), and the Fenja loan falls due 30/6-2027.
Warrants & convertiblesTO15: up to 1,470m shares at 70% of VWAP 16/12-2026–4/1-2027 (min. DKK 0.01), exercised 8–22/1-2027 (max. SEK 29.4m). TO16: up to 1,470m shares on the same terms, exercised 7–21/1-2028. Fenja Capital: 187.8m warrants 2026/2031 at DKK 0.028. Fully diluted approx. 6.7bn shares.
Insiders, last 12 monthsSubscription commitments in the issue totalled only about SEK 2m (Sept. 2026). The bridge loans came from Fenja Capital and the investor Rikard Akhtarzand. No major insider purchases found (not reviewed in detail).
Largest ownersNot quantified after the issue. The underwriters Vator Securities and Mangold received c. 30% of the issue but have since flagged below 5% (Affärsvärlden). Insiders owned 1.3% and institutions 5.4% before the issue (stockanalysis).
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes, approx. DKK 47m. (2) Hot theme: partial, HER2 gastric cancer, but not a hot theme on the market. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial, mitazalimab sale and Henlius' phase 3, but without dates. (4) Major partner: yes, Henlius runs HLX22 globally, but the agreement goes via AbClon. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no, approx. 8 months. (6) Price near the bottom: yes, −99.6% in a year, but the bottom moves with each issue.
Why this asymmetryThe HLX22 stake is real and costs nothing to develop, but the value lies years out and is shared with AbClon. Meanwhile 2.9bn warrants at 70% of VWAP, a loan maturing in 2027 and a documented pattern of flop issues mean that almost any upside is diluted away before it reaches shareholders.
How the score is built
From 100 to 28, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.01 SEK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −99%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−30 of −30
- −10MarginRevenue SEK 0.7m vs an operating loss of SEK 108m (TTM). In Q2 2026 revenue was 0 and the operating result -SEK 36.2m. There have been losses every year (-142 to -249m in operating result 2021-2025).
- −8Quality of growth / segment of the futureThe company has stopped its own development of mitazalimab despite positive phase 2 data (OPTIMIZE-1) and cut down to a minimal organisation. What remains is a passive stake: 35% of the milestones and royalties that AbClon receives from Henlius on HLX22. There is no own engine for growth.
- −4MoatHLX22 is a HER2 antibody in a field with Herceptin, Enhertu and several bispecific agents. Alligator does not own the molecule itself: the value goes through AbClon and Henlius, and Alligator has no control over development.
- −8Capital allocationSerial dilution: 1:1000 reverse split in April 2025, then 0.76m → 43.8m → 628m → 3,568m shares. The latest issue was only 17% subscribed, and 125.6m became 58.8m gross, of which 19m went to a bridge loan and 7.7m to a guarantee commission.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−8 of −35
- −4Multiples vs own historyP/B 3.8 on equity of only SEK 3.3m and EV/Sales 38 are meaningless multiples. The price reflects only the option value of the HLX22 stake; there is no earnings, FCF or book value to compare with the history.
- −4Peers and absolute levelDiluted (3.57bn shares + 2.94bn TO15/TO16 + 188m Fenja warrants) the value is approx. SEK 130m at today's share price plus net debt. That is for an indirect 35% share of a partner's share of royalties from a phase 3 project with no date for data.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−30 of −35
- −10DilutionTO15 (January 2027) and TO16 (January 2028) each give up to 1.47bn new shares at 70% of VWAP (minimum DKK 0.01), a total of +82% on top. Fenja Capital has received 188m warrants at DKK 0.028. The share count has risen more than 80 times since the end of 2025.
- −8Funding and debtCash was SEK 16.6m at 30/6 vs operating spending of 16.4m in Q2. Net proceeds from the issue after the bridge loan and costs are only about SEK 25-30m. The Fenja loan has been extended to 30/6-2027, and total debt was SEK 29.9m.
- −7Binary dependence on one partnerAlmost all the value now rests on Henlius' global phase 3 with HLX22 in first-line HER2+ gastric cancer. Alligator cannot influence the timeline, and there is no date for data. Mitazalimab must be sold or licensed, but there is no buyer.
- −5Price risk and overhangThe price has fallen 99.6% over a year and more than 70% after the issue. The underwriters (Vator and Mangold) received about 30% of the issue and have since filed disclosures to exit, so there is ongoing selling pressure.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2Partner validationHenlius is running HLX22 in a global phase 3 (China, Japan, Korea, USA, Europe etc.) with an FDA-approved IND, with no development costs for Alligator. Henlius' expansion to global rights previously triggered SEK 24m to Alligator.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Stockanalysis' share count (628m) is before the issue. After registration there are 3,568m shares, so the market cap at SEK 0.0198 is about SEK 71m (about DKK 47m), not Nordnet's DKK 101m. Nordnet appears to count BTUs or warrants. Cash after the issue is an estimate (about SEK 40m): the Q3 report comes 22/10-2026. No analysts (forecast 404). The ownership list after the issue and insider trades have not been reviewed in detail. Mitazalimab licence and HLX22 phase 3 have no date from the company.
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