Rankings Chip equipment ASM International
ASM International
88
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−14
- Customer concentration−4
- Customers are shifting (China)−4
Strengths
- Estimates and guidance+3
- Buybacks and dividend from FCF+2
- Net cash+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 88, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 708.40 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 1,187 EUR
- Upside to median
- +67.6%
- Analysts
- 21
- Target range
- 690.00 – 1,380 EUR
- 52-week change
- +28%
- P/E (trailing)
- 34.9
- Forward P/E
- 24.2
- PEG
- 0.54
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−3 of −30
- −2Future segmentManagement acknowledges a relatively low market share in memory, especially in China; growth rests on leading-edge logic/foundry (2 nm GAA and 1.4 nm).
- −1Quality of earningsTTM net profit (€1.07bn) is higher than operating profit (€1.02bn), because about €0.3bn before tax comes from non-operating items (not examined in detail). TTM revenue is only +3%, because the H2 lift has not yet arrived.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−14 of −35
- −14Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 31.8 vs 19.6–37.0 in 2021–25 (average 32.3); trailing P/E 38.8 vs an average of 34.7; EV/EBITDA 33.7 vs 15.6–34.4 (average 26.3). P/S 12.4 and P/B 9.4 are above the whole 5-year range (4.8–11.0 and 4.2–8.5), and P/FCF is 56. (The old finding compared forward P/E with the trailing average of 34.7.)
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−15 of −35
- −4Customer concentrationRevenue is dominated by a few leading-edge logic/foundry customers. The top 5 are said to be 53% of revenue, but the figure is not verified in the annual report.
- −4Customers are shifting (China)China was over 30% of revenue in 2025. Management expects mature logic/foundry to decline in H2 2026 and calls visibility in China low.
- −4Regulation (export controls)A US bill (MATCH Act, April 2026) would cut China off from chip equipment and hit the most important Chinese fabs. That hits ASM's largest region.
- −2Macro and cycleEquipment is cyclical, and the stock is +72% over 52 weeks (€515 → 849 since New Year). One analyst has a Sell with a €690 target (−21%), cut on 31/7.
- −1Execution (costs)Management cites supply-chain stress and cost inflation as headwinds.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+7 of +15
- +2Net cashNet cash €1.11bn and only €70m of debt, but that is only about 2.7% of market value.
- +2Buybacks and dividend from FCFBuybacks €109m plus dividends €159m (TTM) vs FCF of €741m. Record FCF of €355m in Q2, and the €150m buyback programme is completed.
- +3Estimates and guidance2027 revenue is expected above the top of the earlier range (€4.6bn), H2 2026 over 20% higher than H1, and Q3 is guided at €1.1bn (+10% q/q). Q2 landed above the middle of guidance with a 51.9% gross margin.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
China accounted for over 30% of revenue in 2025, visibility is low, and mature logic is expected to fall in H2. The MATCH Act may tighten export controls. The share is +65% in 2026, and P/S and P/B are above the entire 5-year range. The top-5 customer share (53%) has not been verified. Q3 results 27/10.
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