Rankings Chip equipment Applied Materials
Applied Materials
71
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−20
- Cash flow−5
- Macro and export controls−5
Strengths
- Net cash+2
- Dividend and buybacks from FCF+2
- Estimates+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 71, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 374.53 USD
- Median analyst target
- 610.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +62.9%
- Analysts
- 41
- Target range
- 358.00 – 900.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +61%
- P/E (trailing)
- 32.3
- Forward P/E
- 21.2
- PEG
- 0.69
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−4 of −30
- −3ROICROIC has fallen every year from 54.2% (FY21) to 47.8%, 44.0%, 43.8%, 36.7% and 35.6% TTM, because the capital base (including capex and the EPIC centre) is growing faster than operating profit. Still high, but heading the wrong way.
- −1Quality of growthRevenue grew only about 5% a year from FY21 to FY25 ($23.1bn → 28.4bn), and the operating margin has been flat at 29–31%. The current jump (Q3 +25%, Q4 guidance +51%) is driven by the AI capex cycle, not a structurally stronger business.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−20 of −35
- −20Multiples vs own history and peersTrailing P/E 42.0 vs 11.8–26.0 in FY21–25 (average 19.3); forward P/E 27.7 vs 13.2–25.5 (average 18.6); EV/EBITDA 37.9 vs 9.7–20.3; P/FCF 68.7 vs 14.5–32.0; P/S 12.5 vs 3.0–6.4. Every multiple is above the previous peak, even after the fall from $740 to 487.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−22 of −35
- −5Cash flowFCF has fallen from $7.59bn (FY23) to 5.62bn TTM while revenue rose 16%. Capex has quadrupled since FY21 ($0.67bn → 2.77bn), and receivables tied up $1.9bn over the last year. The FCF margin is 18% vs 28–29% in FY23–24, and FCF is only 61% of net profit.
- −4Customer concentrationTwo customers accounted for 19% and 15% of revenue in FY25 (annual report). Normal for the industry, but a handful of chipmakers control the order book.
- −3Governance and export-control caseA $252.5m settlement with BIS (Feb 2026) over illegal re-exports to SMIC in 2020–22, paid in Q2. The DOJ and SEC have closed their investigations without action, but the settlement requires internal audits of export controls.
- −4Insider tradingCEO Gary Dickerson sold 83,000 shares on 15–16/6 (about $590–600) and 78,321 shares for $55.6m on 29–30/6 ($700–736), about $105m in total near the top. No insider buying found; insiders own 0.26%.
- −5Macro and export controlsChina was 28% of sales in Q3 (35% a year earlier), and new US export rules cost about $0.6bn of revenue in FY26. The stock follows the AI capex cycle and has a beta of 1.6.
- −1Sentiment and analystsThe stock has fallen about 34% from its $740 peak (30/6) after a sector-wide downturn and Q4 guidance that did not meet high expectations. Morgan Stanley has a Hold and cut its target from $642 to 563 on 28/9.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 4 findings+7 of +15
- +2Net cashNet cash $1.89bn (cash $9.23bn vs debt $7.35bn); current ratio 2.4 and Altman Z 12.6. Modest relative to a market value of $386bn.
- +2Dividend and buybacks from FCFBuybacks ($2.50bn) and dividends ($1.52bn) TTM total $4.0bn, below FCF of $5.62bn. The share count is −2.1% in a year, and the dividend was raised 15%.
- +2EstimatesRecord Q3 revenue of $9.12bn (+25%) and Q4 guidance of $10.25bn (+51%) with non-GAAP EPS of $4.02 (+85%); Semiconductor Systems growth for 2026 lifted to over 30%.
- +1Pricing powerThe gross margin has risen from 46.5% (FY22) to 49.4% TTM and was 50.3% in Q3, despite export controls and mix.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
All multiples are above the previous peak in FY21–25 (EV/EBITDA 38 vs at most 20; P/FCF 69 vs at most 32). The share has fallen about 34% from the $740 peak on 30/6, and Morgan Stanley (Hold) cut its price target to $563 on 28/9. China is 28% of sales, and export controls cost about $0.6bn in FY26. Q4 results 12/11.
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