Rankings Chip equipment Midsummer
Midsummer
48
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−8
- Customer concentration−8
- Quality of growth−6
Strengths
- Turned to profit+2
- Customer validation+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 0.89 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 506m
- Cash runway
- 25 months
- Cash / debt
- 126.0 / 129.0m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +61%
Bull case
The defence customer or new customers order more DUO lines (e.g. SEK 200m+ a year), Bari scales its own panels for European tenders requiring non-Chinese supply chains, and revenue reaches SEK 400–500m with a 15% EBITDA margin. At 3x sales the market value would be SEK 1.2–1.5bn – about 2x; a tripling requires repeat defence/equipment orders.
Bear case
No new equipment order after 2026: revenue falls below SEK 100m, the deficit returns, and yet another share issue dilutes 50%+ again. The price could fall 50–70%.
Catalysts
- 16 Oct 2026Q3 2026 report (estimated date): continued positive EBITDA and deliveries on the 236m ordergradual stockanalysis.com
- H2 2026The Bari plant moves to two shifts after the summer – the first test of its own panel volumegradual midsummer.se
- 2026 (ongoing)Delivery and revenue recognition of most of the SEK 236m ordergradual midsummer.se
Risk of going to zeromedium – positive EBITDA and SEK 126m in cash give breathing room in 2026–2027, but dependence on one customer and annual share issues make dilution likely if no new orders arrive.
Next financingNot urgent: Q2 had positive EBITDA and cash is SEK 126m. But profitability rests on one equipment order delivered in 2026; without a new large order the burn returns in 2027 (2025: FCF −SEK 59m), and the company has raised capital every year since 2021.
Warrants & convertiblesNo warrants or convertibles found. Guarantor fees from the rights issue were paid in shares (up to SEK 20.5m); 2.17m shares to G&W Fondkommission at SEK 1.38.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNone found (not systematically checked). Insiders own about 9.2% according to stockanalysis.
Largest ownersNot examined. Insiders about 9.2%, institutions about 9.1%; free float about 350m of 530m shares.
Circio check(1) Small market value: partly – about DKK 0.5bn. (2) Hot theme: partly – defence and European/non-Chinese solar supply, but solar is otherwise cold. (3) Upcoming milestones: partly – new DUO orders and the Bari ramp, but without dates. (4) Large partner: yes – repeat orders from a Swedish industrial and defence company. (5) Funding for 2+ years: partly – about 2 years of runway on conservative spending, but only as long as the order is delivered. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – SEK 1.34 vs SEK 14 in 2021, −47% in a year.
Why this asymmetryThe best of the four: genuinely turned to positive EBITDA, a validated customer in the defence industry and no urgent funding need. But the market value already prices in part of the turnaround (EV/EBITDA 21), and the order book is concentrated on one customer – the next large order, or the lack of one, will decide the stock.
How the score is built
From 100 to 48, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 1.22 SEK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −49%
- P/E (trailing)
- 137.5
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−20 of −30
- −5MarginOperating margin −2% (TTM) and only +2.1% in Q2 2026 (EBIT SEK 1.7m) after operating losses of SEK 63–197m a year in 2021–2025. Gross margin 30% (TTM) vs 5% in 2024 and negative in 2022–2023 – improved, but only a year old.
- −6Quality of growthRevenue rose 133% to SEK 232m (TTM), but SEK 208m (90%) is production equipment for one customer, while own solar roofs have fallen from 46 to SEK 24m since 2022. The growth is order-based one-off sales, not recurring.
- −3Future segmentThe plant in Bari (Italy) is only now in full operation and is to run two shifts after the summer; its own panel business is still small and without documented profitability.
- −3MoatCIGS thin film is a niche (flexible, light panels); Chinese crystalline silicon sets the price. The advantage is 'ethical supply chains with a low CO2 footprint' – real in public tenders, but no documented broad pricing power.
- −3Capital allocationShare issues every year (SEK 126m in 2021, 168m in 2023, 66m in 2024, 62m in 2025, 72m TTM) plus the purchase of a plant in Italy; the share price has fallen from SEK 14.09 (2021) to 1.34.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−13 of −35
- −8Multiples vs own historyEV/sales 3.2 and EV/EBITDA 21 in a record year carried by one equipment order; EV/sales was 3.9 in 2025 and 8–10 in 2023–2024 (on very low revenue). P/B 2.2. Not cheap for a company that has only just reached break-even.
- −5FCF yieldFree cash flow about SEK 0m TTM (FCF yield 0%) after −SEK 50m to −154m a year in 2021–2025; the TTM figure is lifted by customer advances and lower receivables.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−17 of −35
- −8Customer concentrationThe orders of SEK 143.5m (May 2025) and SEK 236m (March 2026, the largest in the company's history) come from the same Swedish industrial and defence company; most is recognised as revenue in 2026. Without a new order of the same size, revenue falls sharply in 2027.
- −6DilutionThe share count rose 61% over the last year (and 74% in 2025, 97% in 2024). The guarantors in the rights issue (winter 2025/26) received up to SEK 20.5m in guarantee fees paid in new shares.
- −3DebtDebt SEK 129m vs cash SEK 126m; interest payments of SEK 27m in a year and interest cover of −0.2 – interest eats the whole EBITDA improvement.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2Turned to profitPositive EBITDA in Q2 2026 (SEK 10.0m vs 0.9) and H1 (SEK 29.4m vs −18.6m); positive operating result in Q2.
- +2Customer validationA Swedish industrial and defence customer has ordered again (a follow-on order of SEK 236m after 143.5m) – the DUO line has been validated by a demanding customer.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3). The Q2 report PDF could not be read; cash (SEK 126m) and debt (SEK 129m) at 30/6 are from stockanalysis. Order book after Q2 not found. The customer behind the orders of SEK 143.5m and 236m is only described as 'a Swedish industrial and defence company'. Q3 date 16/10 is stockanalysis' estimate. No stockanalysis forecast page (404). Largest owners not examined (insiders about 9% according to stockanalysis). Quarterly burn is set conservatively at SEK 15m (2025 average), even though Q2 2026 had positive EBITDA. Solar cells/production equipment do not fit the list cleanly; chose 'Semiconductor equipment' (thin-film production lines, sputtering).
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