Rankings Chip equipment ASML
ASML
92
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−12
- Regulation (China export controls)−4
- FCF yield−3
Strengths
- Raised guidance+3
- Buybacks and dividend from FCF+2
- Pricing power (monopoly)+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 92, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 1,383 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 2,100 EUR
- Upside to median
- +51.9%
- Analysts
- 41
- Target range
- 1,288 – 2,507 EUR
- 52-week change
- +50%
- P/E (trailing)
- 39.5
- Forward P/E
- 24.5
- PEG
- 0.75
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−4 of −30
- −2Stronger, not just biggerRevenue has grown from EUR 18.6bn to 35.3bn since 2021, but operating margin is largely unchanged: 35.1% in 2021, 30.7% in 2022, 34.6% in 2025 and 35.4% TTM. ROIC has fallen from 85.8% in 2025 to 66.0% TTM (still very high). Bigger, but not markedly stronger per euro.
- −2Future segmentHigh NA (EXE), which is to carry the next technology leap, meets price resistance: management says some customers find the systems too expensive relative to low NA. EXE sales have risen to EUR 2.1bn TTM, though.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−15 of −35
- −12Multiples vs own historyTrailing P/E 58.2 vs 34.3–48.8 in 2021–25 and EV/EBITDA 44.2 vs 27.0–41.0 – both above the whole 5-year range. P/S 17.4 vs 9.4–15.4 and P/B 28.2. Forward P/E 32.9 vs 28.1–43.4 forward in 2021–25 is in the middle of the range, but only because EPS of +55% is expected in 2026 and +35% in 2027.
- −3FCF yieldFCF yield 1.6% (P/FCF 61) vs 3.1–3.6% in 2021, 2022, 2024 and 2025; earnings yield 1.7%. Analysts expect only EUR 9.2bn of FCF in 2026 (about 1.5% of market value), because customer prepayments no longer lift cash flow.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−10 of −35
- −4Regulation (China export controls)The US MATCH Act bill (April 2026) would ban both sales and servicing of DUV equipment to SMIC, Hua Hong, Huawei, CXMT and YMTC. Quilter Cheviot estimates it would hit 10–15% of ASML's sales; the stock fell on the news.
- −3Customer concentrationSystem sales in Q2 2026 went 43% to South Korea and 30% to Taiwan (up from 23% in Q1), i.e. effectively a few customers such as Samsung, SK Hynix and TSMC. China accounted for 14% of system sales and about 20% of total sales.
- −2Macro and cycleGrowth rests on AI-driven investment in memory and leading-edge logic; management mentions demand swings for 2027–2028 and ongoing capacity adjustment, while at the same time increasing EUV and DUV capacity by 30% to 2027. The share is +96% in a year, and the lowest price target is EUR 1,291 (−20%).
- −1Execution (costs)Q2 operating costs were higher than guided because of estimated costs for a technology and IT overhaul.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 4 findings+8 of +15
- +3Raised guidance2026 guidance raised for the second time this year to EUR 43–45bn of revenue and a 54–56% gross margin; Q2 revenue (EUR 9.3bn) was above the top of guidance, and Q3 is guided at EUR 11–12bn. Management is close to having all orders for 2027 (about 85 low-NA systems).
- +2Buybacks and dividend from FCFBuyback EUR 3.95bn plus dividend EUR 2.89bn TTM vs FCF EUR 10.04bn; share count has fallen 1.4% in a year.
- +2Pricing power (monopoly)ASML is the only supplier of EUV lithography; the gross margin has been lifted from 51.3% in 2023–24 to 54.0% in Q2 and guided at 55–57% in Q3, and service/upgrades of the installed base delivered EUR 2.8bn in Q2 (300m above guidance).
- +1Net cashNet cash of EUR 5.6bn (debt of EUR 2.0bn), but only about 0.9% of market cap.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Share price is +96% over 52 weeks (about EUR 1,620, market cap EUR 615bn). stockanalysis' consensus for 2026 (EUR 42.9bn) is below ASML's own guidance of EUR 43–45bn, so the estimates are partly outdated. FCF includes customer prepayments (unearned revenue EUR 19.4bn at end-2025); 'other operating assets' drew EUR 3.1bn out of cash flow TTM, and analysts expect only EUR 9.2bn FCF in 2026 vs EUR 14.8bn net income. The fall in share count (−1.4%) is consistent with buybacks of EUR 3.95bn TTM. Insider trading, the Mistral investment and order intake (no longer reported quarterly) are not examined. Q3 results 14/10.
Also in Chip equipment
The highest scores in the same industry.
