Rankings Autos & parts Aston Martin
Aston Martin
32
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Debt, interest and covenants−16
- Margin−10
- Multiples vs own history−10
Strengths
- Refinancing and better quarter+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 2.97 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 3,020m
- Cash runway
- 10 months
- Cash / debt
- 114.9 / 1,660.0m GBX
- Dilution, 12 months
- +12%
Bull case
The gross margin reaches 'high 30s', adjusted EBIT heads towards zero, and free cash flow turns positive in 2027. At EV/Sales of 1.6 (historical level) on GBP 1.6bn in revenue and net debt of 1.5bn, the equity value becomes about GBP 1.1bn – about 3x the current market cap. An acquirer (Geely/PIF) could also be a catalyst.
Bear case
The Valhalla effect is fading, tariffs/China weigh on demand, and a cash burn of 300–400m a year continues against liquidity of 340m. Then the liquidity covenant is breached in 2027, and a new issue at e.g. 10–15 pence or a debt conversion could mean −60–90% for current shareholders.
Catalysts
- Ongoing from 2026-08 (monthly)Test of the minimum liquidity covenant under the new HPS loan agreementbinary investegate.co.uk
- 28 Oct 2026Q3 2026 results: shows whether H2 cash burn falls as promised, Valhalla deliveries and whether the gross margin guidance ('high 30s') holdsbinary stockanalysis.com
- H2 2026About 280 remaining Valhalla deliveries (about 500 in total in 2026) – the main source of gross margin and cash flowgradual investegate.co.uk
Risk of going to zeromedium – strong anchor owners and refinancing to 2031 give time, but net debt of 4.5x the market cap, interest exceeding EBITDA and a monthly liquidity covenant make dilution very likely if H2 disappoints.
Next financingAt 30/6-2026: cash 114.9m GBP, liquidity 145m, pro forma approx. 340m after the loan package of 550m GBP (450m term loan + 100m delayed draw, SONIA + 6.75%, maturing July 2031). Free cash flow of −197.6m in H1 (approx. 99m per quarter) gives approx. 10 months of runway if H2 does not improve; management expects a markedly smaller outflow in 2026 than in 2025 (−410m) and sees operations through at least September 2027. Monthly minimum liquidity covenant from August 2026. If the Valhalla cash does not arrive, the next step is probably a new share issue with Yew Tree/PIF/Geely as anchors – historically with heavy dilution.
Warrants & convertiblesNo convertibles found; share awards to management (LTIP 2026). Latest issue: 75m shares at 70 pence (May 2025, GBP 52.5m), primarily to Yew Tree. Up to GBP 100m of junior debt is permitted under the new loan agreement.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNo insider purchases found in the last 12 months; CEO and CFO received 2026 share awards (LTIP). Yew Tree (Stroll) bought 75m shares at 70 pence in May 2025 – more than 12 months ago and twice as high as now.
Largest ownersYew Tree Consortium (Lawrence Stroll) approx. 33%; Saudi Arabia's PIF approx. 17%; Geely approx. 17%; Mercedes-Benz a few percent (stakes from 2025, not verified against the 2026 share register). Free float approx. 349m shares.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: no – approx. GBP 347m. (2) Hot theme: no – luxury cars under tariffs. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – Q3 28/10 and Valhalla deliveries. (4) Major partner: yes – PIF, Geely and Stroll are owners, Mercedes supplies technology. (5) Funding secured 2+ years: no – approx. 10 months of runway without improvement, covenant tested monthly. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −58% in a year and −99% adjusted since the IPO.
Why this asymmetryThere is real upside gearing if the turnaround succeeds (3x is possible), but the debt of GBP 1.54bn means that most of the value increase from an improvement must cover interest, and shareholders have been diluted again and again. The analysts (11, consensus Hold) see only about 17% upside.
How the score is built
From 100 to 32, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 36.56 GBX
- Median analyst target
- 38.00 GBX
- Upside to median
- +3.9%
- Analysts
- 10
- Target range
- 28.00 – 51.00 GBX
- 52-week change
- −41%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−24 of −30
- −10MarginLoss every year since the listing: operating margin −12.4% TTM and −15.2% in 2025, net margin −35% (GBP −498m TTM). Adjusted EBIT was GBP −109m in H1 2026 despite 38% higher revenue; EBITDA (159m TTM) does not even cover net interest expense (approx. 160m).
- −4Quality of growthRevenue fell 21% in 2025 to GBP 1.26bn, and the H1 2026 improvement (+38%) is mainly due to about 220 deliveries of the Valhalla special model. Guidance for 2026 is unchanged wholesale volumes (about 5,448 cars as in 2025) - no underlying volume growth.
- −7Capital allocationRepeated value destruction: reverse split 1:20 in 2020, the share count rose 268% in 2022, 76% in 2023, 11% in 2024 and 18% in 2025, and the share price has fallen from 5.02 GBP (2021) to 0.34. Large investments (341 m GBP in 2025) have not given a positive return: ROIC −10% in 2025 and negative in every year 2021–2026.
- −3MoatStrong brand, but without Ferrari's pricing power: gross margin fell from 39% (2023) to 29% (2025) under tariff pressure and inventory reduction, and the company has not been able to raise prices enough to cover fixed costs at about 5,500 cars a year.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−10 of −35
- −10Multiples vs own historyP/S 0.24 vs 0.5–1.4 in 2021–2025 looks cheap, but debt dominates: EV/Sales 1.33 (1.4–2.2 historically) and EV/EBITDA 11.3 vs 8.6–8.9 in 2023–2024. No P/E (loss), and analysts still expect negative EPS in 2026 and 2027. The stock is a geared option on Valhalla and the gross margin saving the balance sheet.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−25 of −35
- −16Debt, interest and covenantsNet debt GBP 1.54bn (Altman Z −0.78). The new loan package of GBP 550m from HPS (July 2026) costs SONIA + 6.75% (approx. 10–11%) and contains a minimum liquidity covenant tested monthly from August 2026. Cash was down to 114.9m and liquidity 145m at the end of June; net interest approx. GBP 160m a year.
- −5Repeated profit warningsProfit warnings in 2024 and twice in 2025 (incl. gross margin of about 29.5% vs 36.9% a year earlier due to US tariffs and weak demand). The execution track record makes the 2026 guidance (gross margin 'high 30s', EBIT towards zero) uncertain.
- −4Tariffs and ChinaThe US is the largest market; British cars have a quota of 100,000 cars at a 10% tariff (first come, first served, 25,000 per quarter), above that 27.5%. Changed Chinese duties on ultra-luxury cars are an ongoing uncertainty.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2Refinancing and better quarterThe loan package of GBP 550m (maturity 2031) refinanced the fully drawn RCF of 170m and gave pro forma liquidity of about 340m. Gross margin rose to 33.8% (27.9%), and Q2 cash burn fell to 81m (201m the year before).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3 – Europe). Price in pence (GBX). Market cap calculated myself: about 1,017m shares × 34.14 pence = about GBP 347m (about DKK 3.0bn) – Nordnet's figure is wrongly scaled. Not in restructuring, but the gearing is extreme: net debt GBP 1.54bn vs a market cap of about 0.35bn. H1 2026 figures from the company's half-year report (29/7-2026). Ownership stakes for Yew Tree, PIF and Geely are from 2025 and not checked against the latest share register. Insider trades in the last 12 months not found in the sources read (only share awards to the CEO/CFO).
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