Rankings Semiconductors ARM Holdings
ARM Holdings
32
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−35
- Customer concentration−5
- Governance / major shareholder−5
Strengths
- Future segment+2
- Net cash+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 32, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 196.79 USD
- Median analyst target
- 278.60 USD
- Upside to median
- +41.6%
- Analysts
- 43
- Target range
- 125.00 – 500.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +16%
- P/E (trailing)
- 200.9
- Forward P/E
- 82.4
- PEG
- 2.71
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−11 of −30
- −4MarginDespite a 97.5% gross margin, the operating margin is only 17.3% (TTM) vs 26.6% in FY23 and 20.7% in FY25; costs are growing faster than revenue.
- −3ROICROIC 14% vs 26–27% in FY22–23 and 24% in FY25: the return on capital is falling while the company grows.
- −4Quality of growthAbout 15% of revenue ($193m in Q1 out of 1.29bn) is licence income from parent SoftBank – a related party, not market demand.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−35 of −35
- −35Multiples vs own historyP/E 291, forward P/E 130 (vs 55–94 before), P/S 59 vs 28–40 and EV/EBITDA 283: records in its own history and far above peers (Nvidia forward P/E 19).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−20 of −35
- −5Customer concentrationThe five largest customers (incl. Arm China and SoftBank) account for 57% of revenue; the largest, Arm China, for 16%.
- −3China / Arm ChinaAbout 21% of revenue comes from China via Arm China, which Arm does not control; exposed to trade and security conflicts between the US/UK and China.
- −5Governance / major shareholderSoftBank owns about 87% and has pledged 72% of the shares in a margin loan facility, now expanded to $25bn to fund OpenAI. A price drop could trigger forced selling.
- −4Competes with its customersWith its own chip (AGI CPU, Meta as first customer) Arm now competes with its licensees and is moving into lower-margin hardware with rising capex ($588m TTM vs 34m in FY22).
- −2LawsuitsThe lawsuits with Qualcomm continue: Arm lost the original jury trial, and Qualcomm has expanded its suit against Arm Limited (March 2026).
- −1
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +1
- +2Future segmentData-centre royalty revenue more than doubled year on year in Q1 (Neoverse).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Only about 13% free float; SoftBank owns about 87% and has pledged 72% of the shares; the price fell 8.7% on 28/9; beta 3.9 and 10.7% short interest
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