Rankings Construction & materials Desert Control
Desert Control
32
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Dilution−10
- FCF yield−9
Strengths
- Insider participation+2
- Documented effect+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 0.25 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 107m
- Cash runway
- 12 months
- Cash / debt
- 78.0 / 0.0m NOK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +700%
Bull case
The pilot trials convert, revenue goes from USD 2m in 2026 to USD 10–15m in 2027–28, and gross margin comes back above 50% with the new production units. At 3–5x sales the market cap would be NOK 300–700m, about 2–5x the current level.
Bear case
Customers postpone contracts again, the 2026 guidance is missed, and the cash is empty by mid-2027. The next share issue comes even lower than NOK 0.27, and shareholders are heavily diluted again – the price could fall a further 50–80%.
Catalysts
- 20 Nov 2026Q3 2026 report: first evidence of whether guidance of about USD 2m for 2026 holdsbinary stockanalysis.com
- Q3–Q4 2026Conversion of 42 pilot trials in California (agriculture and golf) into commercial contractsgradual desertcontrol.com
- Q1 2027Full-year 2026 figures vs guidance and the new burn level after the share issuegradual desertcontrol.com
Risk of going to zeromedium-high – cash lasts about 12 months, insiders have provided a guarantee, but the company has never had more than NOK 3m in revenue, and every share issue has been at a markedly lower price.
Next financingPro forma cash about NOK 78m after the share issue (18m at 30/6 + about 60m net). The company says the money lasts into Q3 2027. Without a clear sales increase in 2026–27, new capital must be raised in H1 2027.
Warrants & convertiblesNo warrants or convertibles mentioned in the share issue. Guarantee commission of 10% in cash or 12% in new shares at NOK 0.2733 (up to about 31m shares); Nordnet's market value suggests it was paid in shares.
Insiders, last 12 monthsAugust 2026: management and the board guaranteed about 45% of the NOK 70m share issue; CFO David Borah and board member Juli Jessen each committed up to USD 100,000. No insider sales found.
Largest ownersNot examined. Larger existing shareholders made up about 67% of the guarantee consortium; insiders owned about 3.5% before the issue according to stockanalysis.
Circio check(1) Small market value: yes – DKK 107m. (2) Hot theme: partly – water scarcity and climate adaptation, but not an investor theme like AI or biotech. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – pilot conversions and Q3 figures could change the picture. (4) Large partner: no – customers such as Limoneira and Oasis Date are mid-sized, no strategic partner with ownership. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – about 12 months. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −77% over 52 weeks and close to the NOK 0.2733 issue price.
Why this asymmetrySmall market cap, new production equipment and insider participation give a real option on a commercial breakthrough, but revenue has been flat for five years, and dilution is extreme. A new share issue in 2027 is likely.
How the score is built
From 100 to 32, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.21 NOK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −89%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−28 of −30
- −10MarginRevenue only NOK 1.6m TTM vs an operating loss of −NOK 74.5m (operating margin about −4,760%). EBITDA −NOK 35.1m in H1 2026; losses every year since the stock market listing.
- −7Quality of growthRevenue fell 26% TTM and has been in the range NOK 0.8–3.1m a year since 2021. Guidance of about USD 2m for 2026 assumes that customers convert the summer's pilot trials into contracts in Q3–Q4 – not yet documented.
- −6Capital allocationShare price has fallen from NOK 16.68 at end-2021 to about NOK 0.36; market cap peaked at NOK 1.47bn. Repeated share issues (dilution of 22–56% a year) have financed annual losses of NOK 55–90m with no commercial scale.
- −5MoatThe gross margin has fallen from 88–93% (2023–2024) to 16% TTM as production scales with mobile units. The product (clay and water treated in a patented process) has not been proven to have pricing power with farmers and golf courses.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−13 of −35
- −4Multiples vs own historyWith about 428m shares, market cap is about NOK 155m and EV about NOK 80m after the share issue – about 50x TTM revenue. Lower than 90–500x in 2021–2025, but still a high price for revenue that is falling.
- −9FCF yieldFree cash flow −NOK 78.3m TTM (operating cash flow −64.3 and capex −14.0) – about half the post-issue market value is burned every year.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−24 of −35
- −10Dilution256.2m new shares at NOK 0.2733 (a discount of at least 32.5% to TERP) in August 2026 on top of +125% shares the year before, plus a 12% guarantee commission if paid in shares. The share count has grown about eightfold in 12 months.
- −6FundingThe company sought about USD 15m in a financing review, but ended with NOK 70m gross. According to the company, the money lasts 10–14 months (into Q3 2027); after that new capital is required unless sales take off.
- −6Commercial conversion42 pilot trials with larger customers in California in 2026, but H1 revenue was almost zero, and 2026 revenue depends on customers signing contracts in Q3–Q4. In 2025 the company missed its revenue expectations and reported challenges with market adoption.
- −2Geographic concentration92% of revenue (NOK 1.45m of 1.57m TTM) comes from the US, mainly agriculture and golf in California; the Middle East no longer contributes.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Insider participationManagement and the board accounted for about 45% of the guarantee in the share issue; CFO David Borah and board member Juli Jessen each committed up to USD 100,000.
- +1Documented effectTrials showed over 30% higher yield in romaine lettuce after LNC treatment, and the new production unit was delivered in June and field-tested in July 2026.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3). Trades on Euronext Growth Oslo. stockanalysis' share count (121m) and market cap (NOK 45m) are from before the rights issue in August 2026 (256.2m new shares at NOK 0.2733) and any guarantee commission in shares (12% of NOK 70m ≈ 31m shares). Nordnet's market cap of DKK 107m corresponds to about 428m shares, which is used here. Cash after the share issue is an estimate (NOK 18m at 30/6 + about NOK 60m net). No stockanalysis forecast page (404 = no analysts). Largest owners not examined. Soil improvement (liquid clay) does not fit the list; chose 'Construction & materials' as the nearest (material product).
Also in Construction & materials
The highest scores in the same industry.
