Rankings Pharma & medtech BioPorto
BioPorto
49
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Peers and absolute level−6
- Dilution and funding need−6
Strengths
- Divestment without dilution+1
- Net cash+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 1.05 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 537m
- Cash runway
- 12 months
- Cash / debt
- 75.6 / 5.8m DKK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +30%
Bull case
NGAL sales in the US are growing 30–40% a year, and the FDA approves the adult indication in 2028, which opens a much larger market. Revenue reaches DKK 150–200m in 2029–30 with break-even; at EV/Sales 6–8 that equals DKK 1–1.5bn, i.e. 2–3x. 5–10x requires rapid adoption in US hospitals or an acquisition.
Bear case
Further delays or weak growth data, slow adoption and more quality problems. Cash is empty in 2027, and a series of share issues at DKK 0.6–0.8 dilutes 30–50%. The price could halve or worse.
Catalysts
- 19 Nov 2026Q3 report: NGAL growth after recall and cash balancegradual stockanalysis.com
- Q4 2026Target of 60 US hospitals in the RUO programme by end-2026 (54 at end of Q2)gradual kommunikasjon.ntb.no
- 2027Recruitment and results in the adult validation study for ProNephro AKI (about 900 patients) and new financinggradual kommunikasjon.ntb.no
- Mid-2028Expected FDA approval of ProNephro AKI for adultsbinary kommunikasjon.ntb.no
Risk of going to zeromedium – about 12 months of cash, but an FDA-approved product, rising sales and a stable Danish retail shareholder base make new share issues likely rather than bankruptcy
Next financingThe cash at 30/6/2026 lasts to about summer 2027 at a burn of about DKK 18m per quarter (adjusted EBITDA loss of DKK 58–68m in 2026). The FDA adult approval is only expected in mid-2028, so a new share issue – probably directed, under the new authorisation – is likely in H1 2027 or earlier.
Warrants & convertiblesWarrant programmes for management and employees (number and strike not examined). No convertibles found. The general meeting in April 2026 granted authorisation for capital increases of up to a nominal DKK 75m (about 15% of share capital).
Insiders, last 12 monthsNo insider trades found in the last 12 months. Latest found: board members Henrik Juuel (746,157 shares) and Peter Eriksen (373,078 shares) bought in April 2025.
Largest ownersMedia-Invest Danmark A/S and Ejendomsselskabet Jano ApS 8.84% (same 37.97m shares, reported together), Martin Bundgaard 5.13% (April 2026), Arbejdernes Landsbank Asset Management 4.42%
Circio check(1) Small market value: partly – about DKK 540m. (2) Hot theme: no – kidney diagnostics is not a hyped theme. (3) Upcoming milestones: partly – the big one (adult approval) has been pushed to mid-2028. (4) Large partner: no. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – about 12 months. (6) Price near the bottom after a big fall: partly – −18% in a year and −55% since 2021, price around DKK 1.
Why this asymmetryA real, FDA-approved product with growing underlying sales, but a high valuation (EV/sales 12), a short runway and a postponed main catalyst. The next step is probably a dilutive share issue before the big milestone.
How the score is built
From 100 to 49, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 1.00 DKK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −20%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−23 of −30
- −10MarginGross margin 77%, but an adjusted EBITDA loss of DKK 34.2m in H1 2026 on revenue of DKK 16.3m; 2026 guidance is an adjusted EBITDA loss of DKK 58–68m on DKK 38–48m of revenue.
- −5Quality of growthRevenue has only gone from DKK 24m to DKK 40m in four years; in Q2 2026 total revenue fell 35% (NGAL −15%) due to the recall. The underlying NGAL growth of 34% at constant exchange rates comes from a very small base, and the RUO programme (54 hospitals) does not yet generate clinical revenue.
- −3MoatProNephro AKI (NGAL) is FDA-approved for children, but the adult indication – the big market – is missing, and NGAL is a known biomarker without a strong patent moat.
- −5Capital allocationLosses every year (operating loss of DKK 60–79m annually in 2021–2025) financed with repeated share issues: rights issue of up to DKK 100m in 2022 and directed issue of about DKK 43m in November 2025.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−9 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyEV/sales 12.0 vs 12–25 in 2021–2025 – at the bottom of its own history, but the history is extremely high for a loss-making diagnostics company; P/B 6.4.
- −6Peers and absolute levelEV of about DKK 459m for DKK 38–48m of expected revenue and an EBITDA loss of about DKK 60m; loss-making diagnostics companies typically trade at a fraction of that multiple. No earnings or FCF (FCF yield −13.5%).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−15 of −35
- −5Regulatory delayAfter FDA feedback the adult validation study has been expanded to about 900 patients, and the expected FDA approval for adults has been pushed to mid-2028.
- −3Quality and recallA voluntary recall of a production batch in May 2026 (sold mainly in H2 2025) cost DKK 2.8m in credit notes – almost a third of a quarter's revenue.
- −6Dilution and funding needThe share count rose 30% in a year; cash of DKK 75.6m lasts about 12 months at an operating burn of about DKK 18m a quarter, i.e. before the adult approval in 2028. A new share issue is likely in 2027.
- −1Share price riskShare price is down 18% over 52 weeks and about 55% since 2021 (DKK 2.38).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+2 of +15
- +1Divestment without dilutionThe antibody business was sold to Janel Life Sciences for USD 10.5m with a net gain of DKK 53.8m; cash rose DKK 20.7m in H1 without a new share issue.
- +1
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Operating profit in Q1–Q2 2026 is positive at stockanalysis solely because of a one-off DKK 53.8m gain on the sale of the antibody business; the underlying adjusted EBITDA loss is about DKK 16–18m per quarter. Diagnostics fits under 'Pharma & medtech'. Warrant programmes and authorisations not reviewed in detail; no analysts (forecast 404).
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