Rankings Health insurance & services CVS Health
CVS Health
65
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−6
- Multiples vs own history and peers−5
- Customers are shifting−5
Strengths
- Raised guidance+3
- Debt reduction+1
- Dividend from FCF+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 65, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 88.51 USD
- Median analyst target
- 113.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +27.7%
- Analysts
- 27
- Target range
- 103.00 – 146.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +13%
- P/E (trailing)
- 23.2
- Forward P/E
- 10.9
- PEG
- 0.93
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−14 of −30
- −6MarginBigger, not stronger: revenue has risen from $291bn to 413bn since 2021, but operating profit has fallen from $14.2bn to 12.2bn. The operating margin has gone from 4.9% (2021–22) to 2.2% (2024) and 2.95% TTM, and the gross margin from 17.5% to 13.6%.
- −3ROICROIC 7.6–8.8% in 2021–23, 4.1% in 2024, 5.5% in 2025 and 7.2% TTM, only slightly above a WACC of 5.8%. Improving, but not yet back at the level before the Aetna crisis.
- −3Capital allocationAcquisitions of $16.6bn in cash in 2023 (Oak Street Health and Signify) were followed by write-downs and restructuring of $5.7bn in 2025, which pushed net profit down to $1.8bn. The dividend has been stuck at $2.66 since 2023, and the share count has risen 1.2% in a year.
- −2Future segmentThe integrated model rests on Caremark, which is losing members in 2027, and the retail pharmacies, where revenue is flat ($33.8bn in Q2) and stores are closing. The improvement in 2026 comes from Aetna cutting benefits and exiting markets, not from growth.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−5 of −35
- −5Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 10.8 vs 7.8–12.9 at year-ends 2021–25; EV/EBITDA 10.5 vs 8.7–11.7 (upper half); P/FCF 9.6 vs 8.7–12.9; FCF yield 10.5%. Mid-range of its own history and more expensive than Cigna (forward P/E 8.6). The earlier comparison with a 10-year median P/E of 16 mixed forward and trailing figures.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 8 findings−25 of −35
- −5Customers are shiftingManagement expects Caremark's membership to fall in 2027 because clients are leaving, and retention is below the historical level; the stock fell over 6% on results day, 5/8, despite raised guidance. 340B restrictions and cheaper generic specialty drugs are also squeezing Health Services.
- −4PBM reformThe Consolidated Appropriations Act 2026 (February) decouples PBM pay from list prices in Medicare Part D and requires more reporting to clients; states such as Arkansas, California, Florida and Tennessee are also restricting spread pricing, patient steering and PBM-owned pharmacies.
- −2FTC settlementThe FTC settlement with Caremark (summer 2026) requires a standard product in which rebates are passed on to members at the counter, manufacturer-paid fees are decoupled from list price, and retail pharmacies are offered cost-plus reimbursement: a change to the rebate model.
- −3Customer concentrationThe federal government (Medicare, Medicaid and others) accounts for about 20% of revenue according to the annual report, so CMS rates and rules feed straight through.
- −2Omnicare (governance)A jury found that Omnicare had submitted over 3m false claims to Medicare, Medicaid and TRICARE, and the $948m judgment made CVS jointly liable. After Omnicare's bankruptcy the case has been settled for $440m: $130m immediately and $310m by March 2028 at the latest, guaranteed by CVS.
- −3DebtNet debt $62.3bn (net debt/EBITDA 3.7), interest cover 3.9x, current ratio 0.87 and Altman Z 2.43. Leverage has fallen from 5.7x in 2024, though.
- −4Insider tradingBoard member Larry Robbins (Glenview) sold 3.37m shares for $317m on 19/5/2026 and more shares in the following days, and he left the board in August. An activist major shareholder's exit, not management selling.
- −2Medicare Advantage cycleAetna's medical loss ratio swings wildly: over 95% in Q3 2024 and 87.4% in Q2 2026. The improvement was bought with benefit cuts and 600,000 fewer members since the start of the year, and a new rise in utilisation could quickly reverse the picture.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +3Raised guidance2026 guidance raised for the second time: adjusted EPS $7.90–8.10 (from 7.30–7.50), GAAP EPS $6.84–7.04 and revenue of at least $414bn; Aetna's operating profit doubled in Q2.
- +1Debt reductionNet debt has been reduced from $71.9bn (2024) to 62.3bn, and $5.2bn net of debt has been repaid TTM.
- +1Dividend from FCFDividends ($3.4bn) and buybacks ($0.2bn) TTM are less than a third of FCF of $11.8bn; dividend yield 3.0%.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The 2026 recovery is carried by Aetna's repricing and fewer members, while Caremark loses clients in 2027; management's preliminary 2027 outlook disappointed (share −6% on 5/8). PBM reform and the FTC settlement only take full effect in 2027–28. The share of revenue from the federal government (about 20%) has not been reconfirmed. Insider trades other than Robbins' have not been reviewed. Q3 results 28/10.
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