Rankings Health insurance & services Cigna
Cigna
77
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Customer concentration−6
- PBM reform−6
- Margin−5
Strengths
- Estimates+2
- Buybacks and dividend from FCF+2
- Selling season+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 77, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 295.19 USD
- Median analyst target
- 345.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +16.9%
- Analysts
- 24
- Target range
- 288.00 – 400.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +21%
- P/E (trailing)
- 12.2
- Forward P/E
- 9.3
- PEG
- 0.88
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−7 of −30
- −5MarginBigger, not stronger: revenue has risen 62% since 2021 ($174bn to 282bn), but gross profit only 12%. The gross margin has fallen from 13.2% to 9.1% and the operating margin from 4.75% (2022) to 3.90% TTM.
- −2Quality of growthEarnings growth in Q2 came from Specialty & Care (+22%, driven by biosimilars), while Pharmacy Benefit Services fell to $609m after large client renewals, investment in Signature and slowing GLP-1 growth.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−2 of −35
- −2Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 8.6 vs 9.0–13.9 in 2021–25; EV/EBITDA 7.6 vs 8.4–12.0; P/FCF 7.9 vs 8.6–13.8; FCF yield 12.7%. Below the bottom of its own range, but the low multiple reflects a real PBM reform risk.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−23 of −35
- −6
- −3Customers are shiftingPBM earnings fell in Q2 because large clients renegotiated better terms. The rebate-free Signature model only targets a margin of about 4%.
- −3FTC settlementThe FTC settlement in the insulin case (February 2026) requires Express Scripts to stop favouring drugs with high list prices and to decouple its pay from the rebates it negotiates: a change to the business model.
- −4Insider tradingCEO David Cordani sold 201,878 shares for $59.1m on 12/5; five insiders have sold $68.5m in total over 12 months vs one $1.0m purchase (Cordani, November 2025). EVP Nicole Jones sold $6.1m in August.
- −6PBM reformThe PBM reform law (February 2026) forces a move away from the rebate model. Evercore ISI sees the PBM margin falling from 2.7% to 1.6% in 2028.
- −1State regulationExpress Scripts has sued Tennessee over a new state PBM law (June 2026); pressure from the states comes on top of the federal pressure.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+6 of +15
- +2Estimates2026 EPS guidance raised to at least $30.45 after Q2 (adjusted EPS $7.78 in Q2).
- +2Buybacks and dividend from FCFBuybacks ($1.3bn) and dividends ($1.6bn) on a TTM basis are far below FCF of $9.1bn; the share count has fallen 3.6% in a year.
- +2Selling seasonNew client wins for 2027 already exceed the previous two years combined, and management reports strong interest in Signature.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The investor day on 30/9 (the day after this analysis) may change long-term targets and show what the Signature model without rebates costs. PBM reform and the FTC settlement only take full effect in 2027–28. The Centene contract is about 19% of revenue. Q3 results 29/10.
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