Rankings Health insurance & services UnitedHealth
UnitedHealth
71
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- DOJ investigation (governance)−9
- Margin−7
- Customer concentration−6
Strengths
- Raised guidance+3
- Buybacks and dividend from FCF+2
- Debt reduction+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 71, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 400.44 USD
- Median analyst target
- 490.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +22.4%
- Analysts
- 26
- Target range
- 380.00 – 531.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +17%
- P/E (trailing)
- 22.9
- Forward P/E
- 17.6
- PEG
- 1.24
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−13 of −30
- −7MarginThe operating margin was 8.3–8.8% in 2021–23, fell to 8.1% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025 and is 5.35% TTM. In Q2 UnitedHealthcare's margin rose to 4.6% (2.4%) and Optum Health's to 5.1% (1.7%), but the level is still about half of what it was before the crisis.
- −3ROICROIC has fallen from 16.1–16.8% (2021–23) to 14.4% (2024), 10.2% (2025) and 11.4% TTM; still above a WACC of 7.1%.
- −3Quality of growthRevenue was flat in Q2 ($112.0bn vs 111.6bn), and analysts expect −0.2% for 2026. The EPS lift comes from benefit cuts, pricing discipline and fewer members (Optum Health −5% in revenue and 700,000 fewer patients in value-based care), and the 86.7% medical loss ratio was helped by $860m of favourable development of prior-year reserves.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−5 of −35
- −5Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 17.8 vs 17.4–24.2 at year-ends 2021–25; EV/EBITDA 14.4 vs 14.8–19.2; P/FCF 14.4 vs 18.6–23.8; FCF yield 7.0%. At or below the bottom of its own range, but clearly more expensive than Cigna (8.6) and CVS (10.8) on forward P/E. The earlier trailing comparison (24 vs a 10-year average of 22.4) cannot be found again; the trailing P/E of 24.3 compares with 21.8–32.3 in 2021–25.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−24 of −35
- −9DOJ investigation (governance)The DOJ is investigating UnitedHealth's Medicare billing both criminally and civilly, and the criminal part has been widened to Optum Rx and the pay of its own doctors. The Senate report (Grassley) concluded that the group 'aggressively' inflates risk scores through home visits and coding. A court-appointed special master has, however, rejected an older civil claim of about $2bn in overpayments.
- −6Customer concentrationPremiums from CMS (Medicare and Medicaid) make up about 44% of revenue, so rates, the risk-adjustment model and star bonuses are set by one payer.
- −4Macro and regulationMedicare Advantage margins are only 3–5%, and managed-care stocks sold off in September on rising health costs; the stock closed at $388 on 10/9, 16% below its peak. The 2027 star ratings (5% quality bonus) are published in mid-October.
- −3Customers are shiftingUnitedHealthcare has lost 965,000 Medicare Advantage members since the start of the year, and in Q2 Commercial fell by 145,000 and Medicaid by 380,000 (incl. exiting Louisiana); 48.5m members in total. Much of it is deliberate clean-up, but it weakens scale.
- −2Debt and creditMoody's and S&P have negative outlooks according to the Q2 10-Q. The balance sheet is not under pressure, though: net debt/EBITDA 1.7 and debt/capital 41.2% (44.1% a year earlier).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+6 of +15
- +3Raised guidance2026 guidance was raised on 16/7 to adjusted EPS of $19.50–20.00 (from over 17.75) and GAAP EPS of $18.45–18.95 (from over 17.10); adjusted EPS in Q2 rose 56% to $6.38.
- +2Buybacks and dividend from FCFBuybacks of $1.65bn and dividends of $4.09bn in H1 vs operating cash flow of $19.96bn; at least $5bn of buybacks for the full year and share count −1.5% in a year. (The previously cited $4.0bn of buybacks so far this year was wrong.)
- +1Debt reductionNet debt has fallen from $58.6bn (2025) to 44.7bn, and the target is debt/capital of about 40% by year-end.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The DOJ's criminal and civil investigation is unresolved and may lead to fines and demands for changed practices. The Q2 margin was helped by $860m of favourable development of prior-year claims reserves. CMS publishes the 2027 star ratings in mid-October, and Q3 results come 13/10. The credit ratings' negative outlook is from the Q2 10-Q and has not been reconfirmed. Insider trading is only two small sales (the Optum head, $0.66m) and is not included.
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