Rankings Health insurance & services Molina Healthcare
Molina Healthcare
40
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Guidance cuts and governance−9
- Multiples vs own history and peers−8
Strengths
- Raised guidance+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 40, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 208.45 USD
- Median analyst target
- 222.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +6.5%
- Analysts
- 19
- Target range
- 163.00 – 266.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +36%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 25.8
- PEG
- 2.26
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−18 of −30
- −10MarginOperating margin has fallen from 4.4-4.8% in 2022-24 through 1.8% in 2025 to 0.7% TTM, and net income is -$7m TTM. The medical cost ratio (MCR) was 92.2% in Q2 vs 90.4% a year earlier, and the adjusted G&A ratio rose to 6.5% (6.1%).
- −4ROICROIC has fallen from 17.5-19.3% in 2022-24 via 7.9% (2025) to 3.7% TTM, below a WACC of 7.4%.
- −4Quality of growthPremium income fell 6% in Q2 to $10.2bn, and membership fell 14% to 4.93m (Marketplace −59%, Medicare −16%, Medicaid −7%). The traditional MAPD business is being closed from 2027 ($93m write-down), and California's move of undocumented members out of managed Medicaid costs about $500m in premiums in 2027.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−8 of −35
- −8Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 29.5 vs 11.3-19.7 at the year-ends 2021-25, and EV/EBITDA 25.1 vs 7.9-14.9; P/FCF 39.9 and FCF yield 2.5%. The earnings multiples are high because 2026 is a trough, but even on analysts' 2027 EPS ($9.75) P/E is about 21 and above own history. P/S 0.25 and P/B 2.6 are at the bottom of the range, and UnitedHealth trades at forward P/E of about 18.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−22 of −35
- −9Guidance cuts and governance2025 guidance was cut from at least $24.50 to $21.50-22.50 (7 Jul 2025) and to at least $19.00 (23 Jul 2025), and the year ended at $11.03 in adjusted EPS; 2026 guidance started at at least $5.00. A securities fraud lawsuit over hidden cost trends (purchases 5 Feb-23 Jul 2025) is still ongoing; the amended complaint was filed 31 Mar 2026.
- −6Regulation and customer concentrationMedicaid accounts for about 75% of revenue ($32.1bn of $42.5bn TTM) and depends on state rates and budgets. Work requirements and six-monthly eligibility redetermination (OBBBA) may increase attrition from H2 2026 into 2027; the rules are unsettled and being challenged legally.
- −4ExecutionThe new Florida Medicaid contract (from Q4 2026) is factored in with a loss of about $1.50 per share, the MAPD product about $1.00, and Marketplace cost $1.50 per share in guidance in Q2 due to risk adjustment from prior years and a worse member mix.
- −3Debt and creditGross debt is $3.95bn ($2.5bn in 2022) with debt/EBITDA 9.8 and interest coverage 1.4 TTM; the parent company's free cash is only about $290m, and FCF was -$636m in 2025.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+1 of +15
- +1Raised guidance2026 guidance was raised by $0.25 to adjusted EPS of at least $5.25 in July; Medicare came in better than expected (MCR 90.7%), and Medicaid was in line with expectations. Operating cash flow in H1 was +$788m vs -$112m a year earlier.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The Q3 report comes on 21 Oct 2026 after the close and is not included; the figures are TTM to Q2. Consolidated net cash (about $1.0bn) sits mostly in regulated subsidiaries, and the parent has only about $290m. Forward P/E is calculated on a trough year (adjusted EPS at least $5.25 vs $11.03 in 2025). Insider trading and the star rating for 2027 have not been investigated.
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