Rankings Pharma & medtech Dicot Pharma
Dicot Pharma
46
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Quality of growth−7
- Peers−6
Strengths
- Net cash+3
- Insider buying+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 0.15 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 506m
- Cash runway
- 30 months
- Cash / debt
- 248.4 / 0.0m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +72%
Bull case
Phase 2b shows a clear effect across severities and confirms an effect for weeks after three days of treatment. That could bring a licence with big pharma in an USD 8bn market: 100+ USD m upfront could lift the value to SEK 2–4bn (3–5x). The main result is unlikely before 2028.
Bear case
Phase 2b fails (phase 2a was only significant in one subgroup), or toxicology data delays part II. Cheap generic PDE5 inhibitors make it hard to find a partner. When the cash runs out around 2028, a new share issue at a low price follows, and the price could fall 70–90%.
Catalysts
- 8–11 Oct 2026Three oral presentations on LIB-01 at the SMSNA annual meeting in Orlandogradual mfn.se
- 23 Oct 2026Q3 reportgradual stockanalysis.com
- H2 2026Start of phase 2b part I (dose finding) in the USgradual mfn.se
- Q4 2026Decision on the EU application (CTA) for phase 2bbinary mfn.se
- May 2027Exercise of TO 7 warrants (about 365m)gradual mfn.se
Risk of going to zeromedium – funded about 2–3 years ahead and no debt, but it is one asset with a binary phase 2b outcome and no partner
Next financingTO 7 in May 2027 may provide extra capital. Otherwise there is no need before about 2028 (burn was about 18m/quarter, but phase 2b raises it; set here at about 25m). Phase 3 requires a partner or a large share issue.
Warrants & convertiblesAbout 365m TO 7 warrants (309.1m from the rights issue, 30.9m from the directed issue and about 24.8m from the guarantee issue), equal to about +10.5%. They trade until 20/5/2027 and are exercised in May 2027 (the price has not been checked). An incentive programme was adopted in May 2026. No convertible loans.
Insiders, last 12 monthsThe board and management subscribed in the June 2026 rights issue (commitments from major shareholders, the board and management of about SEK 17.7m in total). No insider sales found.
Largest ownersAvanza Pension about 8.4% and Bertil Lindkvist (via Ålandsbanken) about 5.0% (Affärsvärlden). Insiders about 6.5% and institutions about 6.6% (stockanalysis). About 17,450 shareholders, mainly private.
Circio check(1) Small market value: no, about DKK 506m is not small for a penny stock. (2) Hot theme: no, erectile dysfunction is not a hyped theme. (3) Upcoming milestones: partly, study start, EU approval and SMSNA are coming now, but the main result only in 1–2 years. (4) Large partner: no. (5) Funding for 2+ years: yes, SEK 248m funds phase 2b. (6) Price near the bottom: yes, −79% and close to the DKK 0.17 issue price.
Why this asymmetryThe company is funded and has no debt, and a positive phase 2b in a large market could give several times the money. But the market cap is already about DKK 0.5bn, the value rests on one binary study where the phase 2a signal was weak, and the result is a long way off.
How the score is built
From 100 to 46, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.22 SEK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −59%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−23 of −30
- −10MarginNo revenue; operating loss SEK 68m (TTM) and 83m in 2025. The loss will grow when the phase 2b study with at least 200 participants starts.
- −7Quality of growthPhase 2a showed a clinically relevant improvement after four weeks, but only one of the predefined subgroups was statistically significant. The data base is small and early.
- −4MoatPatent on the active substance is approved in the US and Japan, but the market for erectile dysfunction is dominated by cheap generic PDE5 inhibitors (sildenafil, tadalafil). A new treatment must be markedly better to get paid for.
- −2Capital allocationThe company has only 4 employees and a lean setup, but has lived off repeated rights issues with warrants (2024: SEK 123m; TO 6 at SEK 0.19; 2026: SEK 231m at SEK 0.17 per share).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−9 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyP/B is 3.1 vs 2.5–8.6 in 2021–2025, i.e. at the low end. The market cap is nevertheless SEK 789m vs 617m at year-end, because the share count has risen, even though the share price has fallen 73%.
- −6PeersEV of SEK 541m for a single phase 2 asset without a partner in an indication where big pharma has little appetite. That is at the high end for Nordic single-asset phase 2 biotechs.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−20 of −35
- −6DilutionThe June rights issue (DKK 0.17 per share) plus a directed issue and a guarantee issue gave about 1.46bn new shares (+72%). In addition, about 365m TO 7 warrants can be exercised in May 2027 (+10.5%).
- −4RegulationThe FDA has only approved part I (dose-finding). Part II (efficacy) in the US requires an extra 3-month toxicology study. The EU application is decided in Q4 2026.
- −5Binary clinical riskThe whole value rests on one phase 2b study (adaptive design, at least 200 participants, three doses incl. a new higher dose). The result is binary and only comes in 1–2 years.
- −3Partnering and commercial routeThe business model is to out-license during clinical development, but there is no partner or term sheet. Phase 3 in erectile dysfunction requires a large partner or a very large share issue.
- −2Share price riskShare price is down 73–79% over one year and close to the issue price of DKK 0.17. About 17,450 shareholders, mainly private, and 365m warrants create an overhang until May 2027.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +3Net cashCash SEK 248m with no debt at 30/6 (current ratio 31). The share issue was 134% oversubscribed and, according to the company, funds the whole phase 2b study.
- +1Insider buyingThe board, management and major shareholders gave subscription commitments of about SEK 17.7m in the rights issue.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
One drug candidate (LIB-01 for erectile dysfunction) without revenue; no analysts (forecast 404). Stockanalysis' dilution (+27% YoY) is a weighted average; in reality the share count rose about 72% with the June 2026 issue. The terms (price) of TO 7 have not been checked.
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