Rankings Pharma & medtech Eli Lilly
Eli Lilly
72
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Peers−5
- Absolute price level−5
- Price pressure and regulation−5
Strengths
- Raised guidance+3
- Pricing power and moat+2
- Buybacks and dividend below FCF+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 72, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 1,411 USD
- Median analyst target
- 1,508 USD
- Upside to median
- +6.9%
- Analysts
- 31
- Target range
- 930.00 – 1,690 USD
- 52-week change
- +64%
- P/E (trailing)
- 45.8
- Forward P/E
- 30.4
- PEG
- 1.46
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−7 of −30
- −3Concentration and moatMounjaro (USD 32.5bn) and Zepbound (USD 16.9bn) are the same molecule, tirzepatide, and make up 62% of revenue of USD 79.7bn (TTM). Trulicity is already declining (7.4 → 4.2bn USD). The whole business rests on one molecule in one price-sensitive class.
- −2Capital allocationNet debt has risen from USD 13.2bn (2022) to USD 45.2bn; net borrowed USD 15.2bn TTM. Acquisition wave in Q2 (Orna, Ajax, Centessa, Kelonia, three infectious disease companies, AtaiBeckley) with USD 10.5bn in cash acquisitions TTM and USD 2.8bn in IPR&D expenses in one quarter.
- −2Quality of growth (FCF conversion)FCF USD 18.2bn vs net result USD 26.7bn (68%); capex USD 9.9bn, and receivables and inventory have grown by USD 11.7bn in 2025. Growth is volume (+60%) with falling prices (-13%). On the other hand, the operating margin has risen from 29% (2021) to 50% and ROIC from 28% to 42%: really stronger.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 3 findings−11 of −35
- −1Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 27.8 vs 31.8–53.4 in 2021–2025, trailing P/E 38.9 vs 44.9–100 and EV/EBITDA 25.8 vs 26.7–45.7: at the bottom of its own history, but the history is itself extremely high.
- −5PeersForward P/E 27.8 vs Novo Nordisk 11.5, Merck 16.7 and AbbVie 17.6; EV/EBITDA 25.8 vs 6.7–17.4. Lilly trades at 1.6–2.4 times peers, and the premium assumes continued 20–30% EPS growth for several years.
- −5Absolute price levelMarket cap USD 1,032bn, FCF yield 1.8%, earnings yield 2.6%, P/S 13.0 and P/B 30.5. Dividend yield 0.6%.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−11 of −35
- −5Price pressure and regulationThe agreement with the Trump administration lowers Zepbound to an average of USD 346/month via TrumpRx (from 1,086) and the Medicare price of GLP-1 to USD 245. In Q2 prices fell 13% overall, 3% in the US and 36% internationally (Mounjaro on China's NRDL list).
- −3CompetitionSemaglutide copies were launched in Canada, Brazil and China in 2026, Novo's Wegovy pill competes with Foundayo (orforglipron, only USD 98m in Q2 after the April launch), and many new obesity drugs are in phase 3. That puts pressure on prices internationally.
- −2LawsuitsLilly is sued together with Novo in the GLP-1 mass litigation (MDL 3094, gastroparesis etc., about 3,600 pending cases in May 2026) and in the NAION cases (vision loss, MDL 3163). Causation and preemption will be decided in 2026; bellwether trials at the earliest late 2026/2027.
- −1Insider tradingLilly Endowment (about 10% owner) sold, among other things, 292,148 shares for USD 322m in January 2026 and USD 15.8m in May; no insider buying. Other insiders own only 0.17%.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+6 of +15
- +3Raised guidanceQ2 revenue +48% to 23.0bn USD; 2026 revenue guidance raised from 82–85 to 85–87bn USD and the performance margin from 47.0–48.5% to 49.0–50.5%; underlying EPS raised to 2.78 USD (excluding IPR&D).
- +2Pricing power and moatMarket leader in incretins with a full phase 3 data package for retatrutide (obesity, sleep apnea, knee osteoarthritis) and orforglipron submitted for type 2 diabetes. Gross margin rose 1.5 pp to 85.8% despite lower prices.
- +1Buybacks and dividend below FCFBuybacks of USD 6.2bn and dividend of 5.8bn (12.0 in total) TTM are below FCF of USD 18.2bn; the dividend has been raised about 15% a year for 11 years.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Figures through Q2 2026 (TTM June 2026); Q3 is due 29/10/2026. Reported EPS is depressed by acquired research (IPR&D USD 2.8bn in Q2); adjusted EPS guidance USD 35.50–36.50. Lilly Endowment owns about 10% and sells on an ongoing basis (assessed as systematic, not as a negative signal). Analysis, not investment advice.
Also in Pharma & medtech
The highest scores in the same industry.
