Rankings Construction & materials EMCOR Group
EMCOR Group
90
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−12
- Cash flow−5
- Customer concentration−4
Strengths
- Raised guidance+3
- Buybacks from FCF+2
- Acquisition history+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 90, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 682.76 USD
- Median analyst target
- 919.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +34.6%
- Analysts
- 11
- Target range
- 690.00 – 1,200 USD
- 52-week change
- +1%
- P/E (trailing)
- 19.7
- Forward P/E
- 17.5
- PEG
- 0.41
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−2 of −30
- −1ROICROIC has fallen from 49.6% (2024) and 46.8% (2025) to 36.8% TTM after the Miller Electric acquisition (goodwill); ROCE is stable around 36%. Still very high.
- −1Margin at the top of the cycleOperating margin 9.6% and gross margin 19.4% TTM vs 5.4% and 15.2% in 2021. Some of it is structural (prefabrication, mix), but much is due to the data-centre boom, and management itself expects the H2 margin to fall back to about 9.7% from 10.6% in Q2.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−12 of −35
- −12Multiples vs own historyP/E 23.8 (about 25–26 without the gain on the UK sale) and forward P/E 22.0 vs 16.8–22.7 in 2021–25; EV/EBITDA 16.8 vs 10.1–15.4 and P/FCF 28.8 vs 12.3–24.1 are the highest in the period; FCF yield only 3.5%. The stock is cheaper than Comfort Systems and Quanta, but expensive vs its own history.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−19 of −35
- −5Cash flowFCF has fallen from $1.33bn (2024) to 1.17bn TTM while revenue rose from $14.6bn to 18.6bn; the FCF margin has fallen from 9.2% to 6.3%. Operating cash flow in H1 was $290m vs 302m despite 20% organic growth.
- −3Customers are shiftingData-centre customers increasingly demand GMP and cost-plus contracts with lower margins; the mechanical margin fell from 13.6% to 12.5% in Q2.
- −4Customer concentrationNetwork & Communications (mainly data centres) accounted for $3.14bn of revenue in H1 (about 32%), including 56% of the electrical segment; the sector is also the biggest driver of the order book.
- −1ExecutionOnly 75–76% of the backlog is now converted within 12 months vs 85% historically; larger and longer projects make revenue harder to predict.
- −3Insider tradingCEO Tony Guzzi sold 36,000 shares for $26.3m in March (10b5-1 plan); 8 insider sales in total and no purchases in 6 months, including the general counsel and another executive for about $7.5m.
- −3MacroGrowth hangs on hyperscalers' AI capex; the stock fell 6.8% in one day in June on a sector rotation out of infrastructure contractors, and there is a risk of data-centre moratoriums and labour shortages in rural areas.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 4 findings+8 of +15
- +3Raised guidance2026 guidance raised again on 30/7: revenue $20.0–20.5bn (from 18.5–19.25), operating margin 9.5–9.8% (from 9.0–9.4%) and EPS $32.00–33.25 (from 28.25–29.75); record backlog of $17.14bn (+43.9%).
- +1Low leverageNet cash of $376m at 30/6 and debt/EBITDA 0.21; after the July acquisitions there is a small net debt, still below 0.3x EBITDA.
- +2Buybacks from FCFBuybacks of $268.5m in H1 funded by operations; the share count has fallen 2.4% in a year.
- +2Acquisition historyThe electrical margin has risen from 11.8% to 13.9% after the Miller Electric acquisition. The five new acquisitions (about $750m for $625m of revenue and $105m of EBITDA, about 7x) were bought far below EMCOR's own multiple of 16.8x.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Only 10 analysts, and price targets have not been updated since 8/8. The trailing P/E includes a $147m gain from the sale of the UK business. Net cash of $376m (30/6) has in effect turned into small net debt after acquisitions of about $700–750m in July. About 32% of revenue comes from data centres.
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