Rankings Construction & materials Vinci
Vinci
85
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Future segment (concessions expiring)−4
- Higher infrastructure tax−4
- Multiples vs own history and peers−3
Strengths
- Buybacks+2
- Record order book+2
- Diversified base+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 85, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 110.00 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 140.50 EUR
- Upside to median
- +27.7%
- Analysts
- 20
- Target range
- 116.00 – 163.50 EUR
- 52-week change
- −5%
- P/E (trailing)
- 12.2
- Forward P/E
- 11.4
- PEG
- 1.96
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−8 of −30
- −4Future segment (concessions expiring)The French motorway concessions – Vinci Autoroutes has an EBIT margin of 75.5% and accounts for about 35% of the group's EBITDA – expire in 2032 (Escota), 2034 (Cofiroute) and 2036 (ASF), after which about 90% of the network reverts to the state. New concessions (A154/A120, India) replace only a fraction.
- −2Quality of growthOrganic growth only 1.3% in H1 2026, and revenue growth has slowed from 11.6% (2023) to 1.1% TTM; Vinci Construction is flat (31.5 → 32.0 bn €), and part of the growth in Energies comes from 12 acquisitions in H1.
- −1
- −1Capital allocationManagement acknowledges that acquisition multiples are high, and is buying, among others, the German ERP/IT company All for One – some distance from the core business.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−3 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 11.6 vs 11.5–16.5 in 2021–25 and EV/EBITDA 6.6 vs 7.3–10.8 – lowest in the period – and FCF yield about 9.7% on its own guidance. But part of the earnings is time-limited (concessions to 2032–36), so a lower multiple is warranted, and the tax risk is not in the price targets.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−9 of −35
- −4Higher infrastructure taxThe government wants to raise the levy on long transport infrastructure from 4.6% to up to 12.2% of revenue above 120 m € (proceeds 0.6 → 1.4 bn €); RBC estimates 3–4% lower EPS for Vinci. The stock fell 2.3% to 108.50 € near the 52-week low (28–29 Sept 2026).
- −2French corporate tax surchargeThe special tax surcharge for large French companies costs over EUR 300m in H1 and over EUR 400m in 2026; effective tax rate 33.7% TTM.
- −2Traffic and lowered traffic expectationsPassenger car traffic on French motorways fell 3.7% in H1 (fuel prices, heatwaves); the airport traffic outlook has been lowered to 'stable' and motorway traffic is now expected to fall slightly; Gatwick and Kansai are weak.
- −1DebtNet debt (including leases) has risen from €18.6bn (2023) to €25.8bn (June 2026), and net debt/EBITDA from 1.7 to 2.0.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +2BuybacksDividend (€2.78bn) and buybacks (€2.16bn) TTM, in total €4.9bn, are below the FCF guidance of about €6bn for 2026; the share count has fallen 1.3% over a year.
- +2Record order bookThe order book reached a record €77bn (+10% since December, about 15 months of activity), order intake rose 8%, and data centre orders amounted to €900m in H1; Energies' margin rose to 7.8%.
- +1Diversified base59% of revenue comes from outside France, spread across concessions, energy, Cobra and construction in many countries; France accounts for less than 30% of the order book.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
stockanalysis' FCF of €9.25bn TTM is before leasing and exaggerated by negative working capital in construction; Vinci's own FCF guidance for 2026 is about €6bn (analysts €5.5bn), which is used in the assessment. Net debt: the company reports €22.4bn (1.6x EBITDA), stockanalysis €25.8bn incl. leasing. EPS expectations (€9.13 for 2026) are adjusted; reported EPS is €9.02 TTM. The higher infrastructure tax (proposed 28/9-2026) has not yet been adopted, and price targets (average €143) have not been updated after it. Half-year reporting; Q3 revenue 23/10. Insider trading not investigated. Almost all FCF comes in H2 (H1: €264m).
Also in Construction & materials
The highest scores in the same industry.
