Rankings Construction & materials Per Aarsleff
Per Aarsleff
81
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−5
- Margin−4
- Quality of growth−3
Strengths
- Strong balance sheet+1
- Buybacks+1
- Order intake+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 81, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 711.00 DKK
- Median analyst target
- 1,000 DKK
- Upside to median
- +40.6%
- Analysts
- 3
- Target range
- 950.00 – 1,040 DKK
- 52-week change
- −3%
- P/E (trailing)
- 14.5
- Forward P/E
- 12.2
- PEG
- 1.14
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−11 of −30
- −4MarginGross margin 11.9% and EBIT margin 4.7% (TTM); the EBIT margin has been stuck at 3.8–5.0% in 2021–2025 without getting stronger, and the 9-month margin in 2025/26 is only 4.5%.
- −3Quality of growthRevenue grew only 4.2% in 2024/25; the raised 12–15% growth target for 2025/26 is mainly due to the acquisitions of CG Jensen and Adserballe & Knudsen, and the Rail segment has shrunk from DKK 2.29bn (2023) to 2.11bn.
- −3MoatA tender-based contracting business with fixed-price contracts and few switching costs; only niches such as no-dig pipe renovation (Pipe Technologies) and foundation work give some technical advantage.
- −1ROICROIC 12.9% TTM vs 14.6% in 2024/25 and 16.6% in 2020/21; still clearly above a WACC of 6.6%, but not improving.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−6 of −35
- −5Multiples vs own historyThe trailing P/E of 14.7 is the highest in five years (7.8–14.6), the forward P/E of 12.5 is at the top of 6.2–13.6, P/B 2.45 is above the whole 0.94–2.30 range, and EV/EBITDA 7.2 vs 3.9–7.6. The stock has been re-rated from cheap to expensive for a contractor with a 5% margin.
- −1FCF qualityFCF fell 29% to DKK 1.20bn TTM (872m after leases, about 6% of market value); the record year 2024/25 was lifted by released working capital (644m from receivables), and FCF was negative in 2020/21–2021/22.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−8 of −35
- −3Lowered margin outlookThe 2025/26 EBIT margin outlook was cut on 27/5 from up to 5.5% to 5.0–5.3% because of rising oil prices that can only partly be passed on; with 4.5% after nine months, the target requires a strong Q4.
- −3Fehmarn joint ventureAarsleff is part of the FLC consortium on the Fehmarn tunnel, which is claiming DKK 14.5bn from the client; Aarsleff itself judges that the joint venture risk has risen because of unresolved points, including the German environmental approval.
- −1Acquisition integration and debtAcquisitions of DKK 766m (CG Jensen, Adserballe & Knudsen and three smaller companies, closed 8/6) have increased total debt from DKK 1.68bn to 3.30bn and turned net cash into net debt of 1.40bn.
- −1Thin coverageOnly 3 analysts, and about 28,000 shares traded a day; the price target of DKK 997 rests on a very thin base.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+3 of +15
- +1Strong balance sheetNet debt/EBITDA only 0.72x after the acquisitions, interest cover 17x and debt/equity 0.56.
- +1BuybacksDividends (DKK 225m) and buybacks (84m) are far below FCF of DKK 1.20bn (872m after leases); the share count has fallen 0.45% in a year.
- +1Order intakeOrder intake of DKK 20.6bn in the first nine months vs revenue of 18.9bn (book-to-bill about 1.09), including Energy Island Bornholm.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Fiscal year 1/10–30/9; TTM = to 30/6/2026, and the 2025/26 annual report comes 15/12. B share (PAAL.B); stockanalysis' 20.16m shares include the A shares. FCF swings widely with working capital (negative in 2021–2022, 1.94bn in 2025). The acquisitions of CG Jensen and Adserballe & Knudsen (DKK 766m in total) are included from June 2026, so TTM figures do not yet show their full revenue and earnings; organic growth is not disclosed. The Fehmarn risk is only known from headlines (paywall). Only 3 analysts.
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