Rankings Construction & materials Heidelberg Materials
Heidelberg Materials
92
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- CO2 regulation (pricing power)−5
- Multiples vs own history and peers−4
- Quality of growth−3
Strengths
- Buybacks+2
- Diversified base+1
- Volume turnaround+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 92, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 155.45 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 210.50 EUR
- Upside to median
- +35.4%
- Analysts
- 18
- Target range
- 140.00 – 286.00 EUR
- 52-week change
- −23%
- P/E (trailing)
- 13.8
- Forward P/E
- 12.3
- PEG
- 0.93
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−6 of −30
- −3Quality of growthRevenue has stood still at €21.2–21.7bn since 2022 (+0.8% TTM); the earnings lift (EPS from €8.45 in 2022 to €11.28 TTM) comes from prices, savings and buybacks, and Q2 2026 was the first quarter with positive volume growth since Q1 2022.
- −2ROICROIC 8.4% TTM vs a WACC of 7.3%; ROIC has been flat at 8.5–9.1% in 2023–2025, so the return is not improving even though the margin has risen.
- −1MarginThe RCO margin fell to 23.4% in Q2 from 24.2% a year earlier, and the operating margin is 14.1% TTM vs 14.3% in 2025: margin expansion from 9.9% (2022) has stalled.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−4 of −35
- −4Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 10.5 vs 7.1–16.7 in 2021–2025 (7.1–7.6 in 2021–2023); EV/EBITDA 7.6 vs 5.9–11.6; P/FCF 14.8 and FCF yield 6.8%. Mid-range of its own history after the share price fall and below CRH (forward P/E about 14), but EV/FCF 20 is not cheap.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−12 of −35
- −5CO2 regulation (pricing power)The investment case rests on the phase-out of free CO2 allowances and CBAM lifting cement prices. When Chancellor Merz said in February 2026 that the EU should reconsider or postpone the phase-out, the stock fell 11%; a fund manager warned that the sector loses pricing power if the policy is rolled back.
- −3Lowered guidanceRCO guidance for 2026 lowered to 3.40–3.65 bn € from up to 3.75 bn due to rising energy costs after the tensions in the Middle East; Goldman Sachs and Berenberg lowered their price targets to 210 and 215 €.
- −3Customers are shiftingThe cement plant in Ranville (Normandy) is being closed due to a cyclical fall in French cement demand (Sep 2026), German construction is weak, and UBS cut the price target citing weaker US cement shipments.
- −1DebtNet debt rose from €5.7bn (31/12-2025) to €7.8bn (30/6-2026) after dividends, buybacks and acquisitions (including BURNCO in Canada and an increased stake in Akçansa); net debt/EBITDA 1.9x vs 1.4x. Interest cover is nevertheless 10x.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+4 of +15
- +2BuybacksBuybacks (€0.43bn) plus dividend (€0.63bn) TTM are below FCF (€1.70bn); the share count has fallen to 175m (−1.2% over a year), and the dividend has been raised five years in a row (latest +9% to €3.60).
- +1Diversified baseRevenue is split across cement (€11.1bn), aggregates (5.3bn) and ready-mix/asphalt (5.8bn) in Europe, North America, Asia and Africa; no significant single customer.
- +1Volume turnaroundQ2 revenue rose 6.6% on a comparable basis to 6.04 bn € with the first positive volume growth since Q1 2022, and RCO rose 4% to 1.09 bn €.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The share is −25% over 52 weeks and near the 52-week low (EUR 142.60) after a guidance cut in July and uncertainty about EU CO2 allowances; price targets (average EUR 210) have only been partly cut. Heidelberg reports semi-annually, so TTM figures are from 30/6-2026, and net debt is seasonally higher in mid-year. The major shareholder Spohn Cement (Merckle) has issued put options on 300,000 shares expiring in 2027; the significance is unclear, and no points have been given for it. Credit rating and litigation have not been investigated.
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