Rankings Machinery & automation Fastenal
Fastenal
54
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−10
- Peers−5
- Absolute price level−5
Strengths
- Strong balance sheet and ROIC+2
- Moat (onsite and digital)+2
- Dividend below FCF+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 54, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 52.55 USD
- Median analyst target
- 51.00 USD
- Upside to median
- −2.9%
- Analysts
- 18
- Target range
- 39.90 – 60.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +28%
- P/E (trailing)
- 42.7
- Forward P/E
- 38.0
- PEG
- 3.11
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 1 finding−2 of −30
- −2Gross marginGross margin has slipped from 46.2% (2021) to 44.7% (TTM) and 44.6% in Q2 (-70 bp), due to price/cost, freight and a shift towards large customers with lower margins. Operating margin is held at 21% only via SG&A savings.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 3 findings−20 of −35
- −10Multiples vs own historyTrailing P/E of 43.4 versus 24.9-40.2 in 2021-2025; forward P/E of 37.8 versus 25.2-37.7; EV/EBITDA of 29.9 versus 17.0-26.8; P/FCF of 50.4. Above the entire five-year range on every measure.
- −5PeersForward P/E 37.8 versus W.W. Grainger 26.7 and MSC Industrial 24.5; EV/EBITDA 29.9 versus 19.6 and 17.4. About a 40–50% premium to direct competitors.
- −5Absolute price levelFCF yield 2.0% and earnings yield 2.3% for a company with expected growth of 10–12%; analysts' price target (USD 48.84) is below the share price (50.75), consensus 'Hold'.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−7 of −35
- −3Tariff inflation in growthPrice increases to cover tariffs contribute to the daily sales growth of 14.7%, but price/cost was still 40 bp negative on the margin. If tariffs or commodity prices turn, part of the growth falls away.
- −2Insider tradingBoard members have sold in 2026: Reyne Wisecup 36,920 shares (-48% of holding, March), Scott Satterlee -24% (January), Michael Ancius (July). Insiders own only 0.09%.
- −2Cycle peakHeavy industry grew 21.8% in August and daily sales growth 16.6% - 13+ consecutive months of double-digit growth after only 2.7% in 2024. The price assumes the peak holds.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +2Strong balance sheet and ROICDebt only 0.2x EBITDA, interest cover 394x; ROIC stable at 30–32% for five years.
- +2Moat (onsite and digital)Digital Footprint (vending, FMI, e-commerce) makes up 61.6% of sales and grew 16.2%; market share gains at large customers drive the growth.
- +1Dividend below FCF27 years of dividend increases (+12.9% latest year); dividends (1,056m) plus buybacks (50m) are below FCF of 1,156m USD.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Score from before the Q3 report on Wednesday 14 October 2026 (before the open, together with September sales); data through 11 Oct 2026. Fastenal is an industrial distributor (C-class parts, fasteners, vending), placed under 'Machinery & automation' as the closest industry.
Also in Machinery & automation
The highest scores in the same industry.
